China forecasts adjusted lower; rate cutting cycle over - Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered has just published a note to clients revising the 2012 and 2013 forecasts GDP for China, now looking at 7.8% growth in 2013, and a better H2 than H1; "We lower our GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively (from 8.1% and 8.7%), expecting clearer signs of the start of a moderate recovery to emerge in Q4-2012 and early 2013." Furthermore, they, now believe "the interest rate cutting cycle has ended and expect the next move to be up, in late 2013." Looking at the CNY, the bank thinks "it should remain stable against the USD in 2012, but appreciate mildly as the trade surplus revives in 2013-14." Standard Chartered forecasts USD-CNY at 6.19 at end-2013, 6.00 at end-2014.
Not many macro economic data EUR related will be released during London session ahead, starting with EU current account and Italian trade balance at 08:00 GMT, followed by EU labor costs 1 hour later. In the EZ sovereign debt front France will auction some short term maturities, while headlines coming from Greece or Spain could be making headlines any time during the session.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Jul)
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance s.a. (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | Canada. Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | United States. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-17 04:37 GMT | EUR/USD unchanged above 1.31
2012-09-17 04:09 GMT | AUD/USD bias bearish - NAB
2012-09-17 02:16 GMT | GBP/JPY pulls back below 127.00
2012-09-17 01:53 GMT | Rebound in USD/JPY favoured - TDS
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EURUSD : 1.31301 / 1.31307
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3355 | 1.3267 | 1.3179
1.3085 | 1.2995 | 1.2903
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Last week was totally positive for EUR. After the FOMC has announced unlimited purchases of MBS (Mortgage-backed Securities) at a pace of $40 billion per month and QE3 announcement, EURUSD rose to the new highs. Today we expect slow trading session ahead. Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high at 1.3179 (R1), violation here might expose next targets at 1.3267 (R2) and 1.3355 (R3) if the uptrend remains in power. Correction is possible below the next support level, placed at 1.3085 (S1). Further decline below it might test next targets at 1.2995 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.62260 / 1.62271
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6301 | 1.6255
1.6195 | 1.6145 | 1.6096
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD currently deviates from its initial uptrend formation and we expect low volatility today. If the pair can breach the key resistance at 1.6255 (R1), we suggest next targets at 1.6301 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 1.6347 (R3) intraday. From the other side, loss of next support at 1.6195 (S1) might encourage executing of protective orders and drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.6145 (S2) and 1.6096 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.299 / 78.302
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.81 | 78.64 | 78.47
78.14 | 77.96 | 77.78
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Market stabilized after the Friday’s gains and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. Next support could be found at 78.14 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 77.96 (S2) and 77.78 (S3). From the other side, if the pair manages to overcome the 78.47 (R1) level, we might see further appreciation towards to next targets at 78.64 (R2) and 78.81 (R3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Platform | Forex Broker Reviews | Online Forex Broker | FXCC )