HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 3rd March 2026.

Oil, the Dollar and Geopolitical Shockwaves: What Markets Are Really Pricing.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The escalation in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets has reignited volatility across global markets. At first glance, the rebound in the U.S. dollar appears to signal the return of a classic “flight-to-safety” dynamic. However, the underlying drivers tell a more complex story, one rooted less in panic and more in energy economics.

Since President Donald Trump returned to office, the dollar has often struggled to reclaim its traditional haven status during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Policy unpredictability and domestic political friction had dampened foreign appetite for aggressive dollar accumulation. Yet this time, the greenback strengthened broadly after the weekend’s military escalation.

The reason appears to be structural rather than emotional.

Energy Is the Real Catalyst

Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude initially surged nearly 10% before stabilising around $77–78 per barrel, still roughly $5 higher than prior levels. While that move is notable, it does not yet constitute a full-scale energy shock.

Economists at Barclays estimate that every sustained $10 increase in crude prices trims approximately 0.2 percentage points from global growth. By that measure, the current rise remains manageable. However, forecasts of oil moving toward or above $100 per barrel would significantly alter the macroeconomic outlook.

The critical variable is duration. If disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 30% of global crude and 20% of LNG flows, persist for weeks rather than days, markets will begin pricing a more prolonged inflationary and growth shock.

Why the Dollar Strengthened, But Not as a Haven

Unlike past geopolitical crises, this dollar rally is less about capital fleeing into safety and more about relative economic positioning.

The United States is now a net exporter of petroleum products. In contrast, major economies across Europe and Asia remain heavily dependent on imported energy. When oil prices rise, the relative economic damage falls more heavily on importers.

Japan, for example, relies significantly on Middle Eastern crude, with a substantial portion passing through Hormuz. The Nikkei 225 fell more than 2% as investors priced in energy vulnerability. Meanwhile, the yen weakened rather than strengthened, a clear departure from traditional safe-haven behaviour.

China also faces exposure to disrupted oil flows, contributing to weakness in the yuan. In Europe, benchmark gas prices surged intraday by nearly 50% before settling about 35% higher, the highest level in more than a year. The euro fell to a one-month low as traders assessed the growth risks tied to energy supply pressures.

The takeaway is clear: this is not a conventional “risk-off” event. It is an energy-driven repricing of relative economic exposure.

Equity Markets Show Resilience

Despite early volatility, U.S. equity markets demonstrated surprising stability. The S&P 500 briefly declined by over 1% before recovering to close nearly flat.

Energy and defence sectors outperformed. Shares of Exxon Mobil advanced alongside crude prices, while defence contractor Northrop Grumman rallied strongly. Even growth stocks such as Nvidia contributed positively, highlighting that investors are not yet pricing a systemic risk event.

Historically, Middle East conflicts have only produced sustained equity declines when oil prices spike sharply and remain elevated. Strategists suggest that crude would likely need to push well above $100 per barrel to materially threaten the broader U.S. market outlook.

Inflation vs Growth: The Policy Question

Another dimension shaping currency moves is inflation. With U.S. core inflation still running above 3%, higher oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Rather than acting as a recessionary shock, energy strength may reinforce expectations that U.S. interest rates remain elevated for longer.

That combination, energy exporter status and higher-for-longer rate expectations, provides structural support for the dollar.

However, a feedback loop risk exists. As oil prices rise in dollar terms, the dollar itself tends to appreciate. A stronger dollar then makes energy even more expensive for overseas buyers, intensifying economic strain abroad and reinforcing dollar strength further. This self-reinforcing dynamic is not a scenario policymakers would welcome.

US–China Diplomacy Adds a Counterbalance

Amid the geopolitical tensions, trade diplomacy remains active. U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet ahead of a potential summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping.

Constructive discussions around aircraft purchases, agricultural trade, or tariff adjustments could help stabilise risk sentiment. While separate from the Middle East conflict, progress on trade could offset some of the broader uncertainty currently weighing on global markets.

Key Scenarios for Traders
Scenario 1: Conflict Short & Contained

* Oil stabilises near $75–80
* Dollar strength moderates
* Equities remain supported

Scenario 2: Prolonged Supply Disruption

* Oil moves toward $90–100+
* Stronger dollar via energy loop
* Pressure on EUR, JPY, Asian currencies
* Inflation expectations rise

Scenario 3: Diplomatic De-escalation + Trade Progress

* Energy premium fades
* Gold retraces
* Risk appetite returns

The Bigger Picture: The Energy-Dollar Feedback Loop

One of the most important dynamics to monitor is the potential self-reinforcing loop:

* Oil rises
* Dollar strengthens
* Energy becomes more expensive globally (priced in USD)
* Overseas economies weaken
* The dollar strengthens further

This is not a scenario policymakers would welcome — particularly as part of the Trump administration’s longer-term goal has been reducing dollar overvaluation.

What Traders Should Watch Now

At this stage, markets are not pricing catastrophe. They are pricing energy risk with contained spillover.

The most important variables remain:

* The duration of military escalation
* The stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
* Whether Brent crude approaches $90–100
* Shifts in inflation expectations
* Tone and progress in US–China trade discussions

If the conflict proves short-lived and energy flows remain largely intact, volatility may gradually subside. If supply disruptions extend for weeks, the dollar’s strength could intensify as energy-importing economies face deeper growth pressures.

For now, oil remains the leading indicator. Currencies, equities, and bonds are reacting to it, not the other way around.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 4th March 2026.

Asian Markets Plunge as Iran War Sparks Energy Shock Fears.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian equities suffered their worst selloff in nearly a year, with South Korea experiencing its largest crash on record, as escalating war between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered panic across global markets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 4.5%, while South Korea’s Kospi plunged 12.1% , its sharpest decline in history. The collapse marks a dramatic reversal for what had been one of the world’s strongest-performing markets in 2025.

Just weeks ago, the Kospi was celebrated as a global AI-driven outperformer. Heavyweight chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix had powered gains on optimism around artificial intelligence demand.

That narrative unraveled rapidly:

* Samsung shares dropped 11.7%
* SK Hynix fell 9.6%
* The Korea Exchange triggered circuit breakers
* The tech-heavy Kosdaq tumbled nearly 14%

South Korea’s vulnerability stems from two critical exposures: heavy reliance on global trade and deep dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now effectively disrupted by escalating hostilities.

Region-Wide Shockwaves

The selloff spread quickly:

* Nikkei 225 fell 3.9%
* Hang Seng Index dropped 2.9%
* Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.2%
* Taiwan’s Taiex slid 4.4%
* Bangkok stocks plunged 8%



According to strategists, Asia’s acute exposure to Middle Eastern oil flows makes the region especially sensitive to energy price spikes. Rising crude, a stronger US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty have created what one analyst called a “toxic cocktail” for risk assets.

Oil Surge Intensifies Market Anxiety

Oil prices extended gains as attacks continued across the region. Brent crude climbed above $82 per barrel after rallying roughly 12% over two days , the largest surge since 2020. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $76. The rapid move reflects fears of supply disruptions after Iraq began shutting major oil fields and Saudi storage facilities filled rapidly.

The effective closure of Hormuz has severely disrupted tanker traffic. Insurance costs for shipping have surged, potentially adding $5–$15 per barrel in transport-related expenses.

President Donald Trump announced that the US would provide political risk insurance and, if necessary, naval escorts to tankers transiting the strait. However, analysts caution that naval escorts may themselves become targets, limiting the effectiveness of the plan.

Brent’s prompt spread widened to $3.38 in backwardation , a strong signal of immediate supply tightness.



Dollar Strength Adds Pressure

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index posted its strongest two-day gain in nearly a year before stabilizing.

Asian currencies fell to their weakest levels since January, though China intervened to anchor the yuan. A stronger dollar compounds stress for Asian economies by:

* Raising import costs
* Increasing debt servicing pressure
* Tightening financial conditions

US Treasury yields climbed as inflation fears resurfaced, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.07%.

Why This Shock Feels Different

Markets previously relied on what traders dubbed the “TACO trade” , short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” , a belief that sharp market declines would prompt policy reversals.

This conflict, however, is military in nature and carries unpredictable escalation risks beyond traditional policy maneuvering. Investors cannot price a clear endgame, raising fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy flows.

Inflation Risk Returns:Higher oil prices threaten to reintroduce inflation pressures globally. In the US, gasoline prices have already risen to $3.11 per gallon on average. A sustained energy shock could complicate plans by the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, potentially keeping borrowing costs elevated and pressuring equities further.



Is This Capitulation or Contained Panic?

Despite the sharp selloff, futures point to only modest weakness in the US and potential stabilization in Europe, suggesting for now the shock remains concentrated in Asia. Importantly, Asian stocks remain up approximately 4.7% year-to-date after a 25% surge in 2025, meaning some of the move reflects profit-taking from extended positioning.

However, markets remain highly headline-driven. If oil continues to climb or Hormuz disruptions worsen, further downside in Asia appears likely.

For now, traders are watching three key indicators:

1. Crude oil stability above $80
2. Confirmation of tanker traffic resuming
3. Dollar strength persistence

Until clarity emerges, volatility is likely to remain elevated , particularly in energy-dependent Asian markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 5th March 2026.

EURJPY Under Pressure as Yen Gains Safe-Haven Demand.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The global currency market today witnessed significant turmoil in the EURJPY pair. Trading above 182.00, the pair recorded a daily decline of 0.24%. Although the euro has strengthened 14.19% cumulatively over the past 12 months against the yen, short-term momentum is showing signs of exhaustion, with a correction of 1.83% over the past four weeks.

This movement reflects the tug-of-war between strong domestic economic data in Europe and the yen's role as a safe-haven amidst escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

European Economic Resilience and the Challenge of Disinflation

In the Eurozone, recent economic data has provided complex mixed signals for the European Central Bank (ECB). Germany, the region's economic engine, performed solidly, with the HCOB Services PMI surging to 53.5 in February. Collectively, the Eurozone composite index reached a three-month high, signaling a faster-than-expected output acceleration at the start of the year.

However, this growth was accompanied by a return of inflationary pressures. Core HICP data surged to 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous month's figure. This condition has forced market participants to drastically revise their monetary policy expectations. While last week, interest rate cuts were still the main topic of discussion, the market now estimates a 40% probability of the ECB raising rates before the end of the year.

Japanese Yen: Taking Refuge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen has received strong support from its status as a hedge. Military escalation in the Middle East, including reports of direct US involvement in the conflict with Iran, has prompted investors to shift to the Yen. Although Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that he was monitoring the Yen's decline with ‘high urgency’ and left open the possibility of intervention, geopolitical pressures have instead given the Japanese currency a boost, strengthening below 157 per dollar.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, in his statement to parliament, emphasized that while the path to interest rate normalization remains open, external factors such as global conflicts could have a material impact on Japan's domestic economy. Nevertheless, market expectations for a BoJ interest rate hike in April remain stable at 15 basis points, signaling investor confidence that the era of low interest rates in Japan is coming to an end.



Technical Projection and Market Direction

Technically, the intraday bias for EURJPY is currently neutral, with a focus on two key levels.

In a bullish scenario, a break above 184.76 would open the way to 186.22, which, if surpassed, would confirm the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, if the pair breaks through strong support at 180.79, this would signal that the current decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but rather a major correction of the long rally that began at 154.77, turning the medium-term outlook negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 6th March 2026.

Middle East War Shake Markets as Gold Rises and Stocks Attempt Rebound.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets attempted to stabilize on Friday after a week of intense volatility triggered by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. While stocks rebounded modestly and precious metals advanced, energy markets remained the central focus for traders as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supply.

The week has been defined by sharp cross-asset swings, as geopolitical tensions collided with economic uncertainty and rising inflation risks.

Stocks Rebound but Volatility Remains

Equity markets showed signs of recovery on the final trading day of the week.

European equity futures climbed nearly 1%, while US stock futures also moved higher after a weak session on Wall Street. In Asia, markets recovered from earlier losses, with regional shares edging about 0.2% higher as Chinese technology stocks provided support.

The rebound comes after heavy losses earlier in the week. Asia’s benchmark stock index is still on track for its worst weekly performance since March 2020, having fallen more than 6% since the Iran conflict began.

Markets have experienced dramatic swings during the week. South Korea’s Kospi index, for example, plunged 12% on Wednesday before rebounding nearly 10% the following day. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.6%, and China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 0.4%.

Despite Friday’s rebound, investor sentiment remains fragile as funds withdraw capital from Asian markets at the fastest pace in four years.

Oil Markets Driven by Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Energy markets remain at the center of global market volatility.

Oil prices surged earlier in the week amid concerns about supply disruptions caused by the war. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, has nearly halted according to vessel tracking data.

Although crude prices eased slightly on Friday, the market remains highly sensitive to developments in the region.Brent crude traded around $84-$85 per barrel after reaching its highest level since mid-2024 earlier this week, while US benchmark crude slipped toward $80 per barrel.

Analysts warn that sustained disruptions to oil flows could push prices significantly higher.

Some energy strategists believe Brent crude could climb toward the $100 level if interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for several weeks.

To ease supply pressures, the United States has granted a temporary waiver allowing Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian oil, giving global markets additional supply flexibility as the Middle East conflict intensifies.

Geopolitical Risks Escalate

The military confrontation between Israel and Iran entered its seventh day, with missile and drone attacks reported across multiple countries in the Middle East.

Iranian strikes targeted at least five regional nations, while Israel launched another wave of airstrikes on Tehran. Several governments across the region have urged citizens to seek shelter amid the escalating conflict. Diplomatic tensions remain high. Iran’s foreign minister stated that the country has not requested a ceasefire and has no plans to begin negotiations.

At the same time, political rhetoric from Washington has intensified. President Donald Trump indicated he believes the United States should play a role in determining Iran’s future leadership, adding further uncertainty to the geopolitical outlook.

For markets, the key question now is how long the conflict will last.

Many investors still view a relatively short conflict as the base-case scenario, but the lack of diplomatic progress continues to keep traders cautious.

Safe-Haven Assets Gain Ground

As geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven assets have benefited.

Gold advanced about 0.7%, trading near $5,115 per ounce, while silver surged more than 2%, reflecting strong demand for defensive assets. The US dollar has also regained its safe-haven appeal, putting it on track for its strongest weekly performance since November 2024.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields were little changed ahead of a key economic release that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Focus Turns to US Jobs Data and Inflation Risks

Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could provide important clues about the future path of interest rates.

Economists expect hiring to have moderated in February after strong job growth earlier in the year, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady.

However, the inflation outlook is becoming increasingly complicated.

Rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict could push inflation higher, particularly if energy costs remain elevated. Analysts warn that sustained increases in oil could also drive higher food prices due to rising fertilizer costs and disruptions in global trade.

This combination raises the risk of stagflation, slower economic growth combined with rising inflation, a scenario that could create further turbulence for financial markets.

Market Outlook: Conflict Duration Key for Traders

For investors, the trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will likely remain the dominant driver of market sentiment in the near term.

If oil supply disruptions persist or escalate, energy prices could surge further, adding pressure on global inflation and central bank policy.

At the same time, equity valuations remain elevated following last year’s rally fueled by artificial intelligence optimism, leaving markets vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

As a result, traders are entering the final trading session of the week with a cautious tone, balancing hopes for a short-lived conflict against the growing risk of a prolonged geopolitical crisis.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 09th March 2026.

Attacks on Iran’s Oil Facilities Spark Panic Across Global Markets.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The latest strike on Iran’s oil facilities and energy infrastructure sent oil prices close to $120 per barrel. After the recent spike early this morning, oil rose to the highest level in almost four years. The higher oil prices as well as Friday’s poor employment data are triggering a clear domino effect in the market.

Since Friday’s employment data was released and oil prices became volatile this morning, the stock market has taken the biggest hit. Demand for the US Dollar has increased. Investors are opting to invest in safe-haven assets and are pricing in higher interest rates for 2026.

Middle East Conflict

The conflict between Iran and the US-Israel coalition is intensifying as the war enters its second week. As the conflict enters its second week and the coalition does not seem to be able to achieve its goals without putting troops on the ground, investor confidence is deteriorating.

Missile and drone attacks have hit oil facilities, desalination plants, and infrastructure across the region. The conflict is spreading across several Middle Eastern countries and threatening global energy supply. The main concern for investors is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, reducing oil supply by 20% and particularly impacting Asian countries.


HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

How will the Seven Leading Economies React?

How will the Seven Leading Economies React?

Poor US Non-Farm Payroll

Jobs fell by 92,000, while economists expected an increase of 58,000. In January, job growth was 126,000, revised down from 130,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%.

The healthcare sector, which usually drives hiring, lost 19,000 jobs. This was mainly due to protests by medical workers. They are demanding changes to staffing policies, higher wages, and better working conditions. Around 31,000 healthcare workers temporarily stopped working during the protests.

Normally, the lower employment data would positively impact the stock market as investors would expect frequent rate cuts. However, as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates, the market was hoping for strong figures to boost confidence. Currently, the poor figures indicate a weakening stock market and a stronger Dollar. Because of this uncertainty, investors are watching comments from Fed officials closely.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the conflict between the United States and Iran has increased economic uncertainty. Earlier, he expected at least one rate cut this year. Now he prefers a ‘wait-and-see’ approach.

John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the Fed could ease policy if inflation keeps falling toward 2%. He also expects the United States economy to grow about 2.5% this year. Growth should be supported by government spending and strong financial conditions. Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is also expected to support expansion.


HFM - US Dollar Index 4-Hour Chart

The Outcome of a Long-Term Conflict

Analysts advise that if the conflict continues in the long term, oil prices and the market’s lower risk appetite will negatively impact stocks. Some analysts advise the NASDAQ may even fall to $20,000 in 2026. While the ‘winners’ of the development will remain both the US Dollar and Gold, although investors advise the performance of the Dollar and Gold will also be tied to rate hikes.

Key Takeaways:

* Strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure pushed oil near $120 per barrel, the highest level in almost four years.
* Global stocks fell sharply, while investors increased demand for the US Dollar and other safe-haven assets.
* The Strait of Hormuz closure is a major concern. About 20% of global oil supply could be disrupted, heavily affecting energy markets.
* Weak US employment data added pressure on markets. Jobs fell by 92,000, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and the data suggests weakening economic momentum.
* Central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer. The Federal Reserve may abandon rate cuts in 2026, while the European Central Bank could raise rates to control inflation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 10th March 2026.

Gold Climbs: Will Gold Stay Within Its Current Trading Range?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

President Trump’s comments regarding a possible end to the Middle East conflict have calmed investors. Crude oil prices fell back to similar prices seen on Friday ($85) and the stock market rose close to last week’s highs.

Investors are positively reacting to G7 nations advising that they will release part of their oil reserves to boost supply. Market sentiment also found support from Trump's comments about the Strait of Hormuz becoming operational again. However, investors are concentrating on Trump’s comments regarding the conflict ending ‘very soon’. Analysts advise that the US administration is attempting to find a way out of the conflict.

Gold Prices Re-Establish Clear Correlation with the US Dollar

The price of Gold rose 1.70% over the past 24 hours due to the value of the US Dollar declining. The need for safe-haven assets remains as investor confidence has not returned to healthy levels. At the same time markets do not trust any guidance given by the US President though it has been enough to create a change in trend amongst most asset categories.

The price of the US Dollar is supporting higher Gold prices as are Silver and other metals. The US Dollar Index has fallen 1.23% and Silver was one of the first leading indicators signalling Gold could rebound at the $5,000 psychological price. On Monday, while Gold was declining Silver was maintaining its value and rose thereafter, indicating Gold may rebound. The decline in the US Dollar Index further validated this indicating upward price movement which has indeed materialised.

Silver remains key for the analysis of Gold due to its strong correlation. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver market has entered its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit. Analysts project a 67M-ounce shortfall for 2026, while the cumulative deficit from 2021–2025 has already exceeded 800M ounces, roughly one year of global mine production.

Investment demand remains the key growth driver. Physical coin and bar demand may rise 20% to 227M ounces, a three-year high. Returning Western investors and steady demand from India are supporting this growth. Meanwhile, industrial demand may fall about 2% to 650M ounces, a four-year low. Higher silver prices, often $25–$30 per ounce, are weighing on demand. Manufacturers are optimising usage and reducing silver content without affecting product performance.

The correlation between Gold and the Dollar is indicating a slight risk. Gold is maintaining range-bound trading conditions staying within the $5,000 to $5,199 range. However, the US Dollar has formed a bearish breakout falling below its previous range. Therefore, there is a slight sense of divergence and limitation to Gold’s bullish possibilities in the short term. This may also indicate that the US Dollar is oversold.

Like Silver, higher prices are making investors more cautious, but tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index will be a key price driver nonetheless. For this reason, investors need to stay vigilant as the price rises to $5,200. Though according to the 200-Bar SMA, buy signals will remain as long as the price remains above $5,145.


HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is witnessing a strong decline as investors are reacting to Trump’s comments regarding an end to the conflict, but also to the improvement in the market’s risk appetite. The Dollar is the worst performing currency of the day, while the best performing is the Australian Dollar and Euro.

The price of the US Dollar is partially tied to the developments in the Middle East, however, this week’s calendar also has multiple price drivers. Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (inflation) can create volatility as can Thursday’s Core PCE Price Index and quarterly GDP. These figures will not include aspects of the current conflict as they reflect February’s data, but they can still create volatility and trends. If these three releases read higher than expectations, the price of the Dollar can find further support.


HFM - USDX 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:

* Markets rise after President Trump signals the Middle East conflict could end soon, improving global investor sentiment.
* Oil prices fall toward $85 as G7 nations plan to release reserves and supply concerns ease.
* Gold gains 1.7% as the US dollar weakens and investors maintain demand for safe-haven assets.
* The Silver market remains in structural deficit, with a projected 67M-ounce shortfall in 2026.
* Upcoming US CPI data may drive volatility in the dollar, gold, and broader financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 11th March 2026.

AUD Leads All Currencies as the Dollar Loses Momentum.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues for an 11th day, many assets are stabilising, but currencies continue to witness high volatility. The US Dollar saw significant gains in the first few days of the conflict, but has been unable to maintain momentum.

The Australian Dollar remains the best-performing currency as investors are attracted by the country’s hawkish monetary policy, strong economic data, and limited exposure to the Middle East conflict. With gold prices rising, the Australian Dollar is increasingly viewed as a safer option.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has risen 7.40% in 2026 so far, significantly ahead of other currencies. The second-best performing is the New Zealand Dollar, which is up 2.85% in 2026.


HFM - AUDUSD 1-Hour Chart

Consumer sentiment data from the country’s largest bank, Westpac Banking Corp., showed a modest improvement today. The index rose by 1.2% to 91.6 points, following a 2.6% decline in the previous month. Within the report, the household financial conditions sub-index increased by 1.8%, while the timing of major purchases sub-index rose by 4.9%.

Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, based on a survey of 350 companies and reflecting current business sentiment, came in at 7.0 points.

Market attention has also focused on recent comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who indicated that the board is expected to discuss the possibility of a further interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, as uncertainty surrounding the escalation of the Middle East conflict remains elevated.

The Australian Dollar was extremely shorted between 2010 and 2020, and investors are now aiming to unwind some of these previous trades. As a result, these moves support the Australian Dollar. Many investors see Australia as being less at risk of trade conflicts, tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Lastly, the Australian Dollar is also finding support from higher Gold prices, which are trading almost 19% up in 2026.

Traders who are looking to trade the Australian Dollar against a weaker currency than the US Dollar. The USDJPY is also witnessing similar price movements and less conflict. The Japanese Yen is the worst-performing currency of 2026.

The US Dollar

The US dollar is trading around 98.7 on the USDX amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The tensions involve the United States and Iran. Investors fear disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The route remains blocked by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There are also concerns about attacks on oil facilities in Persian Gulf countries. Such attacks could push inflation higher in the near term.

At the same time, traders seem less responsive to statements from US President Donald Trump, who says navigation through the strait is safe. However, satellite data shows that no commercial ships have passed through the route since the start of the week.

The halt in oil shipments is already affecting fuel prices in the US, which have risen to $3.34–$3.50 per gallon. This increases household costs and puts pressure on the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Economic data may also affect the US dollar’s price in the coming days. Investors will watch the US Consumer Price Index, Quarterly GDP, and Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect today’s inflation reading to remain unchanged from last month, as it will not reflect this month’s rise in oil prices. If inflation is higher than expected, the US dollar may strengthen, while the stock market could decline.

The US Dollar index has fallen back to the previous resistance level. Traders are considering whether the resistance level will flip to support. This can potentially become more likely if today’s inflation rate reads higher than previous expectations.

Key Takeaways:

* Currency volatility remains high due to the ongoing US–Israel–Iran conflict, even as some financial assets begin stabilising.
* The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of 2026 (+7.4%), supported by strong economic data, hawkish monetary policy, and rising gold prices.
* Investors see Australia as less exposed to geopolitical tensions, and are unwinding long-standing short positions supporting the currency.
The US Dollar initially surged during the conflict, but it is not maintaining momentum as rising fuel costs weigh on sentiment.
* Upcoming US inflation and GDP data may determine if the Dollar strengthens, while the Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing currency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.