HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 13th February 2026.

AI Fears Weigh on Global Stocks Ahead of Today’s CPI.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

All global indices declined on Thursday, including the US, EU and Asian indices. The quick, sudden selloff is due to fear regarding AI triggering a domino effect on employment and most sectors. Economists advise that the rapid release of new AI products can hurt long-term profits and disrupt business models.

The movement continues to remain under pressure on Friday as the market sentiment remains low. In addition to this, investors are considering whether the Federal Reserve would opt for a prolonged pause. This afternoon, the US will release its latest inflation figures. The new inflation rate may shed some light on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy.


HFM - S&P 500 15-Minute Chart

AI Concerns Not Only A Tech-Problem

The performance of the stock market over the past 24-months has largely been related to demand in AI products. However, the growing number of companies investing in AI, along with the rapid expansion of AI products, is raising concerns among economists. These concerns of triggering a selloff amongst stocks, and not only within Technology companies.

The number of new AI products launched this week is raising concerns about traditional business models. Sectors such as logistics, real estate, professional services, and enterprise software could face disruption or replacement. One example is Intuit’s new AI-Powered Construction Edition for its Enterprise Suite. The company announced the product on Wednesday.

Analysts warned that these tools could automate tasks that previously required human labour. This raises concerns about future revenue streams for many companies. Economists advise that rapid automation and new AI products could increase unemployment. They also warn that demand for traditional products may decline. For example, Bloomberg economists say the domino effect could impact sectors unrelated to AI or technology.

For example, if there is a lesser need for traditional products and unemployment rises, the need for real estate and office space falls significantly. Hence, one of the reasons why Real Estate stocks are also under extreme pressure. For example, Camden Property Trust stocks, which are included in the S&P 500, fell 2.95% on Thursday.

Traders may ask why technology stocks are also declining, as the risk is largely related to other sectors such as logistics, real estate and industrials. Investors focusing their portfolios on AI and the technology sector are contemplating whether there is a risk of an AI-Bubble. In addition to this, investors fear that the risk which AI bears on the economy may trigger harsher regulation.

Traders should also note that strong trending markets on new technology in the past have witnessed powerful declines. For example, the .com crash in the early 2000 where the S&P 500 fell 50% and took more than 7-years to return to its pre-crash level.

Employment and the Federal Reserve

This week’s strong labour market, including rising payrolls and lower unemployment, suggests economic resilience and reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts. As a result, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut rates in March, which is a concern for stocks.

Analysts expect inflation to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%, positive for investor sentiment and the stock market. However, if inflation does not decline to this level, investors will fear a prolonged pause, and this can pressure stocks further. Particularly as stocks are already under pressure from a “risk off” appetite.

As a last note, a positive factor for the stock market is that President Trump is contemplating whether to slightly lower tariffs on certain metals. These tariffs were put in place last summer, but recent reports indicate these tariffs may be reduced.

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

The price of the S&P 500 is currently trading 2.70% lower than the previous swing high. When monitoring previous bearish swings, the average decline that the S&P 500 witnessed is 3.65%. For this reason, price action and past price data indicate the price can potentially continue to fall.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the S&P 500 has fallen below the 100-bar Simple Moving Average and below the 75-Bar Exponential MA. In addition to this, the price is also witnessing bearish crossovers on most timeframes and is trading below the day’s Volume-Weighted Average Price. The VWAP is also pointing downwards, which further indicates a bearish signal.

According to the 200-BAR SMA on the 5-minute chart, a correction signal is not likely unless the price increases to $6,850.00. However, this would also depend on this afternoon’s Consumer Price Index. A lower inflation reading could boost sentiment and demand.

Key Takeaways:

* Global markets fell on Thursday on fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt multiple sectors.
* Fears arise after the release of multiple AI products throughout the week.
* AI products may automate tasks, hurt traditional revenue streams, and increase unemployment risks.
* Real estate stocks, like Camden Property Trust, fell due to declining demand for office space.
* Strong US employment reduces urgency for Fed rate cuts, while inflation data will guide policy.
* S&P 500 shows bearish technical signals, with downside risk unless CPI and sentiment improve.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 16th February 2026.

Gold Pulls Back, Asia Trades Lightly, and AI Volatility Lingers: Markets Recalibrate Ahead of Key US Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Global markets opened the week in a restrained mood, with Lunar New Year holidays draining liquidity from Asia, precious metals retreating from recent highs, and investors continuing to digest last week’s AI-driven volatility.

While price moves were modest on the surface, underlying themes remain significant: inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy direction, emerging market resilience, and the structural impact of artificial intelligence. US markets will also be closed on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Lunar New Year Drains Liquidity Across Asia

Trading activity across Asia was heavily influenced by Lunar New Year celebrations, creating thin market conditions and mixed equity performance. Major regional exchanges in mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed entirely. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index operated for only a half-day session, rising 0.5%.

Elsewhere:

* Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2%
* India’s BSE Sensex added 0.3%
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%

Japan’s decline was less about holiday effects and more about disappointing economic data. The country’s GDP expanded at just 0.2% annualized in the final quarter of the year, below expectations. The weaker growth print increases the likelihood that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may pursue further fiscal stimulus to revive momentum.

The Lunar New Year period once again highlights how regional cultural events can materially affect liquidity, volatility, and short-term price discovery in Asian markets.

Gold and Silver Retreat After Extreme Volatility

Precious metals moved lower on Monday as traders locked in profits amid thin trading conditions.

* Gold fell 0.6% to $5,015 per ounce
* Silver dropped 1.9% to $76.50 per ounce

The pullback follows a period of dramatic swings. Gold had previously surged to record highs before suffering a sharp 9% one-day drop following news related to Federal Reserve leadership developments. Silver has been even more volatile, sliding more than 25% from recent peaks.

Despite the latest decline, the broader trend remains powerful:

* Gold is still up approximately 70% over the past 12 months
* Silver has surged roughly 140% year-over-year

Recent price action reflects consolidation rather than structural weakness. Friday’s US inflation data, which showed moderating price pressures, briefly reignited bullish momentum by strengthening expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the lack of fresh catalysts combined with reduced Asian liquidity triggered profit-taking.

The market appears to be transitioning from aggressive momentum buying to a phase of reassessment and balance between bullish structural drivers and short-term positioning pressures.

Wall Street Stabilises After AI-Driven Turbulence

Last week’s dominant theme was artificial intelligence disruption.

Fears that AI could significantly reshape software, financial services, logistics, and real estate sectors triggered sharp moves beneath the surface of headline indices.

By Friday:

* The Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 2.1%
* The S&P 500 posted a weekly loss of 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.2% on the week

Semiconductor heavyweight Nvidia fell 2.2% on Friday, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to AI expectations. Meanwhile, AppLovin rebounded sharply after steep prior losses, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift in high-beta technology names.

Markets found some stability after softer US inflation readings reinforced the possibility of further Federal Reserve easing this year. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, attention now shifts to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Emerging Market Currencies Quietly Outperform

One of the more underappreciated developments in global markets is the unusual stability of emerging-market currencies. Volatility measures suggest EM currencies have fluctuated less than their G7 counterparts for nearly 200 consecutive trading days; a rare stretch of calm.

Several factors are contributing:

* A softer US dollar
* Expectations of gradual Fed rate cuts
* Strong commodity prices
* Robust capital inflows

The carry trade dynamic remains supportive, as investors borrow in low-yielding currencies and allocate capital to higher-yielding emerging-market assets. So far this year, a basket of developing-market currencies has gained roughly 3%, extending last year’s strong performance.

Controlled volatility continues to attract inflows, though such conditions tend to be fragile if global risk sentiment deteriorates.

Oil and FX: Stability for Now

Oil prices were largely unchanged, reflecting balanced supply-demand conditions.

In foreign exchange:

* The US dollar strengthened modestly against the Japanese yen
* The euro eased slightly versus the dollar

Movements were relatively contained, consistent with reduced liquidity and a broader wait-and-see tone ahead of key US data releases.

The Bigger Picture: Repricing, Not Panic

Markets are not in panic mode; they are in recalibration mode.

* Precious metals are consolidating after extreme swings.
* Equities are digesting AI disruption narratives.
* Emerging markets are benefiting from controlled volatility.
* Central bank expectations remain the anchor of sentiment.

With Lunar New Year disruptions fading and US inflation data ahead, liquidity will return, and with it, potentially stronger directional moves.

For now, the environment is defined by balance: optimism about easing inflation and resilient asset performance, tempered by structural uncertainty around AI, policy credibility, and global growth.

The next decisive catalyst is likely to come from inflation data and how it reshapes expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

[url='https://analysis.hfm.com/']Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.