Symmetrical Triangle Support: Gold Rebound Imminent?
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Gold’s price comes under pressure for a fourth day, primarily due to positive US data and a stronger Dollar. The US employment data from the previous week is the main driver of a weaker price as rate cuts become less likely and sentiment rises. Though both technical and fundamental analysts are contemplating whether the trend will suddenly change.
Gold Continues to Decline
The bearish price movement came after surprisingly positive employment data on July 3rd. The latest employment report revealed robust growth, with the NFP change expanding by 147,000. This figure far surpassed the 111,000 forecast and even exceeded May's 144,000, largely attributed to significant hiring in the civil service (73,000) and healthcare (39,000). As a result, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1%, though Average Hourly Earnings saw a marginal decrease.
Gold has also come under pressure from the strengthening US Dollar and the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index has risen more than 1% over the past week, pressuring Gold due to its inverse correlation. The market also now expects a more hawkish Federal Reserve and this can be seen through indications available by stock exchanges. For example, the Chicago exchange previously stated a 6% possibility of an interest rate pause in September. That figure has now risen to 34%.
Although traders should note that this may change depending on tonight's FOMC Meeting Minutes. Gold price movement will also depend on the current developments within the Oil market, geopolitics, earnings season and the US trade policy.
What Could Trigger Gold to Rebound?
While geopolitical tensions seem to be improving, other factors suggest potential for an upside. Crucially, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program, remain a significant wild card. Any escalation could swiftly push Gold prices higher, as seen in the first 2 weeks of June 2025. According to analysts, this remains an issue as experts believe Iran will continue to enrich uranium and no agreement has been made with the US so far.
In addition to this, despite minor deadline extensions from July 9th, the Trump administration's ongoing pursuit of new 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea (effective August 1st). This continues to generate significant market volatility and uncertainty, which if continues, may support Gold’s rebound. These impending tariffs are particularly impactful given both nations' considerable trade deficits with the US.
Another major issue is the EU, which is yet to make an agreement in principle with the US. The US has proposed a deal to the EU with a 10% baseline tariff on most goods, offering exemptions for sectors like aircraft, spirits, and cosmetics. However, the U.S. is currently unwilling to exempt sensitive industries like cars, steel, and aluminium, which the EU has strongly requested. If no agreement is made, the ‘risk-off’ sentiment can support another bullish trend for Gold.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Technical Analysis Show Symmetrical Triangle
There's a strong preference for buying in all types of contracts. Investors who use actual money hold significantly more ‘buy’ positions (167,386 thousand) than ‘sell’ positions (36,902 thousand). Last week, buyers increased their holdings by 4,217 thousand deals, while sellers increased theirs by 1,925 thousand, confirming a global trend towards investment.
In terms of technical analysis, most indicators continue to signal downward price movement. However, on the daily chart, the price is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern and trading at the support level. Therefore, traders will monitor if the price reacts to this support level and if the US Dollar weakens throughout the day.
XAUUSD Daily Chart
Key Takeaway Points:
* Gold's price is falling, driven by strong US job data, a strengthening US Dollar and low rate cut expectations.
* Geopolitical risks and new US tariffs could trigger a Gold rally if this escalates to trigger a risk-off sentiment.
* Gold's technical charts show a symmetrical triangle pattern, and the price is trading close to its support level. However, trend indicators point towards bearish momentum.
* Despite Trump’s extensions for trade agreements, the market remains cautious as no agreement has yet been made with Korea, Japan and the EU.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
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