HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 13th March 2024.

The Dow Jones Rises to Monthly Highs! Is Gold Retracing Or Correcting?



* The Dow Jones rises to a monthly high despite higher inflation data for February 2024.
* The Dow Jones’s best performing stock on Tuesday was 3M Co (+4.97), Intl Business Machines Corp (+3.16%) and Microsoft (+2.66%).
* US inflation rises from 3.1% to 3.2% and the Monthly Core CPI remains at recent highs for a second consecutive month.
* Gold forms its first bearish candlestick in March on the daily chart, but Dollar struggles to hold onto gains.

USA30 – Higher Inflation Fails To Keep the Dow Jones Down!

The USA30 did not see the highest gains and lags behind the SNP500 and NASDAQ which both rose more than 1.00%. However, the USA30 (Dow Jones), was the only US index which broke through resistance levels and rose to its highest level for March. The USA30 is now witnessing bullish signals from trend-lines, regression channels and oscillators. The price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA, above 60.00 on the RSI and above the VWAP. These factors indicate the asset has potential to further rise.

The only concern for technical analysts is entering too high and at a previous resistance level from February. Though fundamental analysts are more concerned about the higher-than-expected inflation data. The higher inflation data did not cause a decline in the price, as it normally would. However, it continues to be a concern for investors as it puts off a possible interest rate cut in May-June 2024. The US inflation rate rose from 3.1% to 3.2% and Core Inflation fell at a lower pace compared to previous predictions.

If we look at the top 15 influential stocks within the USA30, 8 of those stocks are declining. Also, the most volatile stocks in the pre-market hours are Travelers Cos Inc stocks which are declining more than 2%. This currently indicates a sideways price movement, but investors will need to continue monitoring as we come closer to the US Open. Other global indices are trading lower including the Nikkei225, DAX and CAC. However, US bond yields are trading 0.012% lower which is positive for the US stock market.



XAUUSD – Gold Forms Its First Retracement

Gold has formed its first retracement after the higher-than-expected inflation data. This ends a nine-day bullish trend where the commodity rose consecutively. However, traders should note the price is so far only forming a retracement and is yet to indicate a downward trend. Therefore, the price can potentially still be within a bullish trend. The retracement can provide investors the opportunity to enter at a more competitive entry level.

If the price breaks above the $2,161.53 mark, buy signals are likely to again materialize. The commodity formed a triple top at this level but is not showing any downward momentum. Therefore, above this level, investor sentiment can again rise. The Fibonacci levels indicate that a buy trade can potentially aim for levels between $2,169 and $2,175 in the short term.



The 30-Year Bond Yield Auction can influence the price movement of Gold as both are known as haven assets. However, tomorrow’s Producer Inflation and Retail Sales is likely to create higher volatility. Investors will also be keen to hear from members of the FOMC, but none are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Economists are now pricing in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts, the first of which could come in June. Previously investors were pricing in four cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 14th March 2024.

China’s Gold Imports From Switzerland More Than Triple!



* Significant demand from China continues to push Gold prices higher!
* China has been using the safe haven asset to protect the central bank and reserves as the Chinese Yuan depreciated over the past 2 years.
* Economists advise the higher demand coming from China may indicate potential higher Chinese inflation. This could be a domino effect of lower interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy.
* Gold declines 0.30% during this morning’s Asian session but remains above yesterday’s lows.

XAUUSD – China Pushes Gold Prices Higher And Looks to Move Away From the Dollar!

The price of Gold fell 0.33% during this morning’s Asian session, however, the asset continues to remain above yesterday’s price range. Using the Fibonacci levels-based impulse wave yesterday, the price is also still trading above the 50.00 and did not cross below the 61.8. Therefore, the possibility of upward price movement remains.



The price movement will also be largely influenced by this afternoon’s US economic data. The US will make public the latest producer inflation and retail sales. In the previous month, both supported the price of Gold as inflation rose, but interest rates cuts continue to remain “the main path forward”. Analysts believe the US Producer Price Index will again read 0.3% and retail sales to fully correct the 0.8% decline from the previous month. If retail sales disappoint, the demand for Gold can again rise.

Investors also note the price of oil has risen to its highest level since November of last year. If the price does not correct downwards, inflation may become more stickier than previously thought. This is also a concern which the Treasury and Ms Yellen have voiced in the past 24 hours. “I wouldn’t expect this to be a smooth path month to month, but the trend is clearly favorable,” Yellen said.

Though investors should note that according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration, the higher demand is largely due to China. The Swiss Federal Customs Administration advised the physical exports to China trebled in 2024. Investors are also questioning whether China is increasing exposure to Gold in order to mitigate away from the Dollar. In addition to this, Chinese inflation is expected to again rise due to expansionary policies in 2023. According to the CME exchange, the average trading volume over the last five sessions is 511.5K positions, which is this year’s high, far exceeding the February average of 267.0K transactions.

The US Dollar index during this morning’s Asian session has risen +0.18%. However, the index has slightly fallen at the open of the European session. Investors will also continue to monitor the index after the PPI and Retail Sales release. If the index continues to rise, the price of Gold can become strained. However, if the Dollar falls along with retail sales, Gold can potentially see higher demand.

The price is unlikely to see a continuation of the trend seen last week, according to analysts. However, this does not necessary indicate that the price is collapsing. Many analysts believe the asset will form a new range and honor a wider range. This provides investors an opportunity to use reversion strategies and pay closer attention to support and resistance levels. The latest major support level can be seen at $2,148 and resistance level at $2,185.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 15th March 2024.

BOJ Puts Rate Hikes On The Table After Historic Wage Agreement!



* Wage deals with Japan’s largest employers and unions have been agreed according to reports. Bloomberg confirms a 5% wage increase.
* Bank of Japan may hike interest rates as early as next week. Other economists believe the hike will come in April. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate to rise to 0.00%.
* Producer Inflation rates double that originally expected by analysts. Core Producer Inflation also continues to rise.
* 31% of the NASDAQ’s stocks decline as investors price in fewer rate hikes in 2024.

GBPJPY – BOJ Set to Hike for the First Time Since 2007 After Higher Salaries Agreed!



The GBPJPY fell up to 0.28% during this morning’s Asian session as unions and employers gave consent for a 5% wage increase. This gives enough room for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate increase to move out of negative interest rates. However, the Yen has fallen since against the currency market as a whole. Nonetheless, the hike and wage increase could support the Yen in the medium to long term.

Analysts advise the Bank of Japan is likely to increase rates either at next week’s bank meeting or in April, but no later. However, economists are yet to confirm how high rates may go. Analysts advise the bank will most likely opt to hike on two occasions by 0.10%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 0.10%, the highest since 2010.

The possibility of rate hikes is deemed to be positive for the Japanese Yen as well as the higher possibility of sticky inflation globally. The Japanese Industry Activity also rose 0.3%, more than previous expectations, which supports the Yen. However, investors should be cautious of volatility and ensure their entry is appropriate based on technical analysis. The price over the past 48 hours is moving within a sideways range but is showing more downward volatility.

UA Zensen, Japan’s largest industrial and trade union representing more than 1.8 million workers, announced that companies have agreed to the largest wage increase since 2013. Thus, this year for full-time workers it may increase by 5.9%, and for part-time workers by 6.5%.

When monitoring each currency individually, we can see the Pound is seeing a “mixed” performance. The Pound during this morning’s Asian session and European Cash Open has depreciated against the Euro and the Pound. The Japanese Yen declined throughout the first 3 days of the week but rose on Thursday.

Even though the price of the Pound has considerably risen against the Yen over the past 90 minutes, the Yen could see different signals rise throughout the day. For example, if the price declines below 188.949, Fibonacci levels and price action will signal a decline. With such a decline, the price will also again fall below the 75-Bar EMA and “Neutral” level on the RSI.

USA100 – Global Stocks Rise on Friday

The USA100 rose 0.19% as the European markets opened as did other indices such as the DAX, French CAC and even the NIKKEI225. The positive price movement from global equities is positive as it may indicate a higher risk appetite and investor sentiment. In addition to this, US Bond Yields are also trading lower this morning which is known to potentially support stocks. These are signs of a potential correction to the trend line at $18,090. However, this is something investors will need to keep monitoring through the day.



In terms of fundamental analysis, yesterday’s Producer Price data and Retail Sales have added pressure on equities. Most analysis now believe the Federal Reserve will only opt for 2-3 hikes in 2024. Most economists still believe the Fed will cut in June, but rate cuts thereafter will be less frequent. Some analysts advise if this continues, the index will struggle to renew highs from March 8th.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 19th March 2024.

Market Recap – It’s a classic ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The advent of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the further slippage in Fed rate cut expectations extended selling pressures on Treasuries.

* Corporate issuance and the risk-on trades into equities weighed too.
* BoJ delivers dovish hike: The BoJ ended its yield curve control, ETF buying and the 8 years of negative interest rates and ushered in the nation’s first policy tightening since 2007. Also the bank pledged to continue to buy long-term government bonds. There was little indication of additional hikes, which signalled that this is not the first step of a rapid tightening cycle.
* RBA drops tightening bias, as it keeps the policy rate at a 12-year-high. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for another meeting, but removed any reference to possible further hikes from the statement. When asked if the RBA had indeed moved to a neutral stance, Bullock said the risks to the outlook are indeed “finely balanced now”.
* Today: The FOMC meets for 2 days, and will issue its post-meeting statement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street bounced but pared its early rally. It continued to shrug off the evolving Fed outlook and instead re-focused on tech enthusiasm.
* A Bloomberg report that Apple is in talks to build Google’s Gemini AI engine into the iPhone boosted risk appetite.
* The NASDAQ (US100) advanced 0.82%, after halving early gains. The S&P500 (US500) was up 0.63% and the Dow was 0.20% higher.
* Nikkei (JPN225) was choppy after the decision but closed 0.66% higher, while Japanese government bond yields fell.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed and held over the 103 mark. It rose to 103.45.
* The USDJPY lifted to 150.47, with the Yen paring recent gains, despite the hike, as Ueda made clear that the inflation target has not been reached yet. As interest rate differentials between Japan and the United States remain stark, Yen is likely to remain under pressure.
* Antipodeans: AUD and NZD slid to 2-week lows, i.e. 0.6515 and 0.6050 respectively.
* Gold eased to $2,153.95 and USOIL steadied at $82.
* Bitcoin drifted for a 4th day in a row, currently at $64,500, slightly above 20-DMA.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 20th March 2024.

Market Recap – All eyes on FED.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasury yields are sinking as bonds await the FOMC’s results. The market is recovering slightly from this month’s selloff that has taken rates to the highest levels since late November.
* Stock markets traded mixed overnight, while Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
* German producer prices fell -4.1% y/y in February. PPI has bottomed out, but so far is still firmly in negative territory, largely thanks to a -10.1% y/y drop in energy prices. Developments are backing the ECB’s assessment that things are moving in the right direction. Services price inflation though, which is more driven by wage growth than goods prices, remains stubbornly high for now.
* UK inflation continues to decelerate adding support to the bond market. The data confirms that inflation is moving in the right direction, but also that it remains far too high, which will justify a dovish hold from the BoE tomorrow.
* FOMC Checklist: The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement today. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024. The SEP was last updated in December, and is due for another update at this March meeting.



Market Trends:

* A mixed open on Wall Street with some weakness on profit taking after further AI inspired gains. The Dow climbed 0.83%, with the S&P500 (US500) advancing 0.56%, while the NASDAQ (US100) was up 0.39%.
* ASX paring some of Tuesday’s gains, while China bourses nudged higher.
* Nvidia (+1.07%) debuts next-generation Blackwell AI chip at GTC 2024.
* Microsoft hires DeepMind founder to lead new AI shift.
* Apple is in talks with Alphabet’s Google to potentially incorporate Google’s “Gemini” generative AI engine into its iPhones.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found a bid too after the BoJ’s dovish hike. It tested 104.06 but slid to 103.82 at the close.
* USDJPY is at 151.57 spiking to 4-month highs while EURJPY spiked to a 16-year peak after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes.
* A stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence reading failed to boost the Euro significantly. Cable is holding slightly below the 1.27 mark.
* Gold flattened for a 3rd day in a row and USOIL fell to $82.24 from $83.
* Bitcoin continued to pull back from its recent record high, falling over 5% at one point. Shares of crypto-linked companies Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) lost ground alongside the token.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 21st March 2024.

Market Recap – Gold & Stocks at record highs; Fed maintained rate cut forecast.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The Fed signalled that rate cuts are still in the cards, stock markets rallied, Treasury yield were lower and the US Dollar was down from earlier highs.

* DOT PLOT: Fed keeps rates on hold and signals 75 basis points of cuts this year! – 9 officials out of 19 expressed the need of 3 rate cuts, and 1 expects 4 rate cuts. For the remainder of the 2024 forecasts, 5 expect two rate cuts, 2 expect one rate cut, and 2 expect no cuts.
* The Fed left policy unchanged, as expected. And although the revisions on the Fed funds path, as well as on the economy and inflation were all hawkish, Chair Powell said “the story is the same one,” meaning rate cuts are still in the cards and the Fed is confident it will achieve its objectives over time.
* Australia: Robust jobs data released this morning supported Aussie, with 116,500 roles added to the economy in February.
* New Zealand: The GDP showed the country unexpectedly fell into a recession in the second half of 2023.
* Today’s round of European central bank decisions includes BoE, SNB and Norges Bank!



Market Trends:

* Asian shares rallied to their highest in 2 years. The Nikkei and Hang Seng surged more than 2% and the ASX gained 1.1%.
* The optimism in other markets is set to spill over into European trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 future is up 1.2% and US futures are broadly higher.
* Wall Street surged with the NASDAQ (US100) rising 1.3% for its first record high close since March 1. All Magnificent Seven stocks advanced. The S&P500 (US500) climbed 0.89% to 5224, the first time with a 5200 handle, and the Dow advanced 1.03% to 39,512.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The US Dollar slumped marginally with the USDIndex sliding to 102.80 at the close after testing 103.80 earlier.
* JPY, AUD and NZD reverted some losses gaining some ground against the US Dollar.
* Gold climbs to record high above $2200 in sudden spike – due to to growing expectations of US interest rate cuts, which would make the non-yielding asset relatively more attractive, Chinese purchases, geopolitics turn investors to the haven asset.
* USOIL fell to $80.88.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 22th March 2024.

Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ!



* Apple stocks witness the second largest decline within the NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold shares after news of another federal antitrust law violation.
* Apple is set to receive its second fine from regulators for “monopolizing” the phone sector. The company has already received a $1.8 billion fine from the EU.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.43% after the Fed’s dovish tone before triggering pending orders. The USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher.
* UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. The Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data.

USA100 – Apple Stocks Struggle After A Second Antitrust Lawsuit!

The price of the USA100 is trading slightly lower during this morning’s Asian session continuing the downward momentum from 18:00 (GMT+2) onwards. The downward momentum was largely due to pending orders to sell at the new high. These orders are seen on the Depth of Market and Volume profile. However, in addition to this, the NASDAQ’s second most influential stock, Apple, declined more than 4%.

The NASDAQ has assigned a “weight” of 7.71% to Apple stock which is a concern for NASDAQ holders. This is because Apple has received another lawsuit against them for antitrust violations and “monopolizing” the industry through purposely making competitors’ products less suitable. Certain States within the US advised “Apple’s success is less based on the merits of their product but making other products less convenient for consumers”.

This would be the second penalty for Apple in 2024. The EU has already given Apple a $1.8 billion fine which has caused Apple stocks to fall up to 10%. If Apple stocks continue to decline, this may apply some pressure on the USA100 and will definitely result in the stock holding a lower weight. The USA100 was better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell in value when monitoring the whole NASDAQ. Later in the day, the stock market in general can witness volatility as the Fed chairman is due to speak.



In terms of technical analysis, we can see the regression channel has thinned, which indicates there are no current active signals. The price instead will need to gain momentum and direction in order for signals to materialise. The breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20 and $18,377.37. However, investors should note that these levels can also form “false breakouts”. The medium-term charts, such as the 2-hour chart, indicate buyers control the market. However, if a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191 and $18,246.

GBPUSD – Economic Data Continues to Improve Sentiment Towards The Dollar!

The cable exchange rate trades at its lowest level in over a month due to the strengthening Dollar and dovishness amongst members of the Bank of England. The exchange rate fell 0.99% on Thursday and a further 0.56% during this morning’s two sessions.



The BoE’s accompanying statement stated that inflation pressures are weakening, but wage growth rates remain above target levels, creating additional risks for the economy if the transition to a “dovish” course is too rapid. Though investors are concentrating more on the fact the Monetary Policy Committee saw no votes for a rate hike. For this reason, the committee seem more bearish than bullish. 8 members voted for a pause and 1 for a cut.

The US Dollar on the other hand is trading higher due to weakness in other currencies and the possibilities of less frequent cuts. Based on the comments from the Fed, the regulator will not delay the cuts but simply make them less frequent. In addition to this, the US Dollar is being supported by the latest US economic data. Unemployment claims remained low while the Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales significantly rose above expectations. In addition to this, investors were happy to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes remain above the significant 50.00 mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 26th March 2024.

Market Recap – Quarter End Comes Into View.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.

* The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week’s supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
* Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
* The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
* Geopolitics: Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end, having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
* The Dow fell -0.41%, the S&P500 was off -0.31% and the NASDAQ was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the Dow is up 4.3%.
* DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has been in consolidation mode at the start of the week and is currently trading at 103.77.
* The Yen strengthened against USD and CHF, but USDJPY is still at 151.20. Japan’s top currency officials warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets, after the recent weakness in the yen saw USDJPY climbing above 151 once again.
* Gold continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the Dollar and caution ahead of the US PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is due to be released on Friday.
* Copper prices fell amid ongoing demand concerns. For agricultural commodities, the ascent in cocoa prices remains noteworthy.
* USOIL inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 27th March 2024.

Market Recap – Yen on Intervention watch.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* A slip in risk appetite and a solid 5-year auction gave Treasuries a little boost yesterday with yields ending modestly lower.
* Profit taking on the strong gains for the quarter, and indeed record highs last week, and some tax loss selling weighed.
* Wall Street ended with small losses. The NASDAQ fell -0.42%, with the S&P500 off -0.28%, while the Dow dipped -0.08%.
* The US consumer confidence undershot assumptions and joined a Michigan sentiment down-tick to 76.5 from 76.9 in February and a 30-month high of 79.0 in January. All the surveys face headwinds from high mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and recession fears.
* The US durables report slightly beat estimates thanks to a restrained 3.3%.
* Data showed that industrial profits in China jumped 10.2% in the first 2 months of the year, but signs of an ongoing recovery means there is a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have tightened their grip on the currency once again.
* Japan officials have also engaged in some verbal intervention over the past week, but that didn’t prevent the Yen from hitting a 34 year low against the Dollar.
* Italy sold about 12.5% of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA for about €650 million ($704 million) as part of Giorgia Meloni’s government plan to divest from the bailed-out lender.



Market Trends:

* Today, European stock futures are lower ahead of the ESI economic confidence reading and the 4-day Easter holiday weekend.
* US futures are in demand after a mixed close across Asia.
* The China bourses underperformed, Hang Seng & CSI 300 are down -1.4% and -1.2% respectively.
* Bond yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year Treasury rate down -0.6 bp at 4.23%, and the 10-year JGB rate down -1.5 bp.
* Bunds are outperforming, and the German 10-year rate has corrected -2.6 bp in early trade, as markets expect Spanish HICP numbers to confirm the downtrend in headline inflation.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex recovered to close slightly firmer at 104.10. It’s a fourth straight close over 104.
* The Yen is at 34-year low retesting once again the 152 high.
* Gold extended gains as the focus shifts to key US PCE numbers on Friday. Bullion is currently at $2179 after breaching $2200. Geopolitical risk, central bank buying, bond rally and rate cut expectations solidifying, all added to the strength in gold.
* USOIL steady for a 2nd day in a row below $81.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 28th March 2024.

The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”.




* Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital.
* The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
* Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar.
* Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price.

EURUSD

The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data.

A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments.

The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter.



Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data.

USA100

The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April.

The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.