Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:57 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2021

EUR/USD
In previous reviews, we counted on a correction based on erroneous information about Catholic Easter. The holiday was designated on March 26-29 in a number of economic calendars, while in reality it falls on April 2-5. The error in the calendars was corrected, and our inaccurate forecast, unfortunately, remained, for which we apologize.

Meanwhile, the euro successfully passed the 1.1800 target level (now this level has been updated to 1.1810) and has moved to the 1.1745 target level.

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Now, either from the 1.1745 level, or from the current one, we expect a correction based on a more pronounced double convergence of price with the Marlin oscillator. The correction may still not be deep, limited from the top by the 1.1810 level, but it can continue in this range on Monday due to the lack of planned news.

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A reversal of the Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal from the current levels on the H4 chart. The 1.1810 level, as you can see, corresponds to a slight consolidation on March 24th.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:30 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/ USD currency pair 03/26/21

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890-at the resistance line (the red bold line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).
Comprehensive Analysis:
- Indicator Analysis – up
- Fibonacci Levels – up
- Volumes – up
- Candle Analysis – up
- Trend Analysis – up
- Bollinger Bands – up
- Weekly Chart – up

General Conclusion:
Today, the price is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (closing yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890 at the resistance line (the red bold line).

Alternative scenario: the price will move down from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.1711 (the red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to continue working downwards with the target of 1.1691 at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (the black dotted line).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:02 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking Friday's gains, a sign of the price's sentiment to continue moving down against the pressure of the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator.

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But the question of yesterday's event has not yet been resolved - will the price stop in the struggle against convergence at the 1.1745 level, or will it continue to decline to the 1.1688-1.1700 range? There is a third option - the collapse of convergence and the price falling even deeper (after all, double convergence has not yet been fully formed), and there are fundamental prerequisites for this. Yesterday, investment ideas that have become traditional in the last month appeared in the media on the difference in the speed of recovery of the US and European economies.

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The Marlin oscillator approached the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart and is most likely to turn down from it. The oscillator's exit into the zone of positive values in this short-term situation does not carry a high level of information, it may also be a reaction to the way that the price will continue to consolidate sideways or on either side, not above the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 1.1810.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:58 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 31, 2021

AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar broke through the signal level of 0.7641 with its upper shadow and closed the day with a decline of 37 points. The Marlin oscillator has been repeating its price movements for the last five days, unfortunately losing its leading main function. Nevertheless, it still has a large margin to decline before entering the oversold zone. We have a downward trend on the daily chart and the targets are set at 0.7565 and 0.7500.

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The price consolidated under the indicator's red balance line and the MACD line in the H4 chart. The Marlin Oscillator is at its zero neutral line and is ready to fall again. In this case, the first target level of 0.7565 is expected to be broken through, with 60% probability.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:25 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).

Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.

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All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

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The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:24 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 2, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3834 and made a local high at the level of 1.3850. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.3867 (61% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, if bulls fail to do so, the next target for bears is located at 1.3669 (recent swing low) and then at 1.3557 (weekly low from February 2021). The next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3850. Please notice the momentum is neutral and can turn again into negative territory any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4089
WR2 - 1.3984
WR1 - 1.3884
Weekly Pivot - 1.3780
WS1 - 1.3675
WS2 - 1.3568
WS3 - 1.3466

Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:48 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

EUR/USD

A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.

However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

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The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:00 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.

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Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:33 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021

GBP/USD
The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.

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The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:37 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro tried to continue the corrective growth yesterday, while the published minutes of the Federal Reserve gently made it clear that the central bank has gradually shifted its mood on increasing the rate. A black candlestick with a high upper shadow was formed at the end of the day. It can be interpreted as a reversal pattern in the current situation, especially with the Marlin oscillator turning to the downside. After the price settles below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, an "underline" will be created, afterwards the lower Fibonacci level is reached in 80% of cases. For the current situation, this is the initial 0.0%, that is, the 1.1700 target level becomes relevant again. The price is waiting for two intermediate levels on this path, from which a slight correction is possible: 1.1810, 1.1745.

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The upward trend continues on the H4 chart. The first condition for a reversal would be for the price to settle below the 1.1855 level, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator will return to the zone of negative values, which, in fact, will become the first signal for a decline.

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Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

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