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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Wed Jul 16, 2025 1:42 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 16, 2025 GBPUSD


Event to Watch Today:

15:30 EET. USD – Producer Price Index

09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index

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GBPUSD:

GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading around 1.3380. Fundamental factors continue to shape a bearish outlook:

Economic Risks: Recession threat in the UK and weak GDP growth (0.1% for Q2) heighten expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in August.

Trade Conflicts: The introduction of tariffs on EU and Mexican imports increases capital flows into the dollar.

Yields: The gap between US Treasury yields and UK government bond yields remains a key driver for the pair.

Key support level is 1.3350. A break below this mark will open the way toward 1.3200. A rise above 1.3420 would be a signal to cancel the bearish scenario.

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Trade Recommendation: SELL 1.3380, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3300

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Thu Jul 17, 2025 2:40 am

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.07.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500

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After updating the historical high, buyers calmed down a bit. Their opponents immediately took advantage of this, starting active pressure on the price. As a result, the rate began to drop sharply, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Apparently, this decline is of a corrective nature. This means that we may see the formation of a zigzag structure in the near future.

For this, the price will rise slightly, but it will not be possible to update the maximum again, and the price will go down again. The expected trajectory of the price movement is indicated in the provided screenshot.
In this situation, it is worth considering the possibility of entering sell trades after a slight rise.

Investment idea: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Jul 18, 2025 3:31 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 18, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The US dollar remains the sole beneficiary of a series of upside macro surprises: June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m, annual CPI accelerated to 3.6 %, and initial jobless claims fell to a three‑month low. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy range at 5.25 – 5.50 % through year‑end, lifting 10‑year Treasury yields towards 4.50 %. Against this backdrop, investors rotate into the greenback as the most liquid defensive asset, pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.16 area and making 1.1630 vulnerable to further downside.

In the eurozone, fundamentals remain soft. German inflation flat‑lined in June, while recent surveys point to stagnation in Italian and Spanish manufacturing. Uncertainty over possible 30 % US tariffs on key EU goods adds to the pressure, with a decision expected by late July. Until the trade outlook clears and the 2‑year Bund‑UST spread (‑215 bp) narrows, upside in the single currency looks limited.

A key support zone sits at 1.1530 – the level where strong corporate import demand emerged in February. A decisive break would reinforce bearish momentum and expose the March lows.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Jul 21, 2025 1:32 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 21, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

21.07 17:00 EET. USD - Leading Indicators Index

GBPUSD:

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Sterling drifts toward 1.3410 as the market almost fully prices a Bank of England rate cut on 7 August. Odds of easier policy rose after unemployment climbed to 4.7 % and wage growth slowed to 5.0 %, pointing to a cooling labour market and heightening fears of a hard landing for the UK economy.

Soft domestic data compound the pressure: GDP has contracted for two consecutive months, and industrial output is struggling with supply‑chain friction as tariff disputes ripple through global trade. With gilts offering lower yields relative to US Treasuries, international investors have little incentive to hold the pound, turning any uptick in GBPUSD into a selling window for bears.

The dollar, meanwhile, enjoys steady haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious but not yet dovish. Unless incoming US data radically soften, the pair is likely to probe the 1.3350 support area in the days ahead, with rebounds toward 1.3450 viewed as corrective.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3415, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3350

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Jul 22, 2025 3:06 am

Analysis of margin levels for 22 July 2025 #XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3315.00-3345.00. Currently, investment transactions are being made above the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers. XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3326.00-3334.00. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above this range for XAUUSD, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 21.07.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3364.86.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3327.36.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 21.07.2025–3402.36.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of SNKZ-3535.96. XAUUSD: BUY 3327.36-3364.86, TP1-3402.36, TP2-3535.96.

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• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 3327.36–3364.86, Take Profit 1–3402.36, Take Profit 2–3535.96.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Jul 22, 2025 2:28 pm

Wall Street takes off: 5 secret growth engines for #S&P500 and #NQ100 in 2025

Record closes for the indices on July 21 came from a powerful combo: a surge in #Google, a strong start to the earnings season, gains in #Apple (+0.6%), #Amazon (+1.4%), plus #Microsoft, #Meta Platforms, and #Nvidia. This momentum, coupled with market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts and hopes for a softening US-EU tariff conflict, pushed #S&P500 and #NQ100 to new all-time highs.

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5 mega drivers that could keep #S&P500 and #NQ100 on the runway through 2025:

AI capex and monetization: Top cloud providers are ramping up spending in computing clusters and generative AI solutions. The growing lineup of paid AI products (Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot+ Apps, Amazon Bedrock) is starting to generate significant revenue, boosting profit estimates for the “Magnificent 7.”

Fed policy easing: If inflation keeps drifting towards 2%, we may see the first rate cut of the cycle between July and September. Historically, every 25 bps drop in 10-year UST yields adds ~2% to the #NQ100’s valuation multiple.

Record buybacks and dividends: #S&P500 companies hold $3.5 trillion in cash. After tax relief on repatriated foreign earnings earlier this year, several megacap boards approved accelerated buybacks — mechanically supporting stock prices.

Easing tariff risks: Potential trade deals between the US and EU, and the US and Mexico, would remove the threat of 20–50% tariffs priced into valuations, unlocking CAPEX in manufacturing and semiconductors — sectors with a heavy #NQ100 weight.

• Resilient consumers and services: Unemployment remains near 4%, and household spending is growing 2–3% YoY. This supports e-commerce, streaming, and platform advertising — together making up ~40% of #NQ100 and ~28% of #S&P500.

The current highs of #S&P500 and #NQ100 aren’t a random spike — they result from strong corporate earnings, expectations of Fed cuts, and hopes of trade détente. If even some of these five drivers materialize, the indices have a strong chance to stay elevated and set new records by year-end. FreshForex analysts believe current prices could spark a new rally, with today’s market conditions offering plenty of entry points in both indices and stock CFDs.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Wed Jul 23, 2025 2:26 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude Oil Inventories

USDJPY:

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The yen remains under pressure as hopes for imminent Bank of Japan tightening fade: June’s trade‑balance surplus missed forecasts and Tokyo inflation slowed to 3.3 %, softening hawkish sentiment. Consequently, the 10‑year JGB yield has slipped below 1.1 %, stretching its gap with the US benchmark to almost 340 bp.

The dollar, by contrast, drew support from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the need to keep policy “restrictive for longer” to counter the impact of new tariffs. Dollar demand is further buoyed by risk aversion amid uncertainty over US‑China trade negotiations.

With risk appetite subdued and domestic Japanese drivers weak (delayed tax incentives, a stagnant real‑sector outlook), USDJPY is likely to keep grinding toward the upper end of July’s 148.50–149.00 range.

Trade recommendation: BUY 147.00, SL 146.50, TP 148.50

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Thu Jul 24, 2025 4:54 am

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 24.07.2025 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 23100, SL 22900, TP 23500

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The NASDAQ index continues to slowly “die” in terms of volatility. However, this calm, as has been repeatedly pointed out, is before the storm in the form of a strong directional movement. It is expected that the price will rise to complete the formation of the final wave 5 in the forming upward impulse.

This upward movement is likely the final upward movement before the reversal. The price may be preparing for a decline. However, while there remains some potential in the upward movement within wave 5, it is worth considering the possibility of entering buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 23100, SL 22900, TP 23500.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Jul 25, 2025 2:37 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

25.07 15:30 EET.USD - Change in orders for durable goods

EURUSD:


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The euro remains under pressure as the bond yield gap is once again widening in favor of the dollar following comments from Fed Chair Powell about the need to “keep policy tight for longer” to counteract the inflationary effects of new US tariffs. Additional support for the dollar came from the increase in June retail sales and a decline in jobless claims, which confirms the resilience of the US economy and pushes expectations for the first rate cut toward the year-end.

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From the European side, euro support is undermined by signs of slowing activity: the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany remains below its historical average, and preliminary July eurozone PMIs, despite some improvement, still indicate an uneven recovery of the real sector. Further pressure comes from ongoing uncertainty around EU–US trade talks; Washington is still discussing the possibility of 15% tariffs, which threatens the bloc’s export prospects and fuels demand for the safe-haven dollar.

With monetary policy divergence and tariff escalation risks persisting, the pair is likely to continue correcting toward 1.17. Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s US PCE data, which could reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining a “hawkish” stance and cement the downward trend.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Jul 25, 2025 3:16 pm

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