LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday morning the pair went up to resistance level of 1.3820, which was strong enough to prevent the rise in EUR/USD. The pair had rebounded from this level and by the end of the day reached the level of 1.3750. Many investors started to close long positions because of rumors that ECB has not made clear decisions about future monetary policy. Probability of currency intervention by ECB is low as it can suspend deflation. It is likely that interest rate and incentive program will remain unchanged. However, sooner or later Draghi will have to introduce measures to reduce exchange rate of Euro. Today’s meeting of the European Central Bank and tomorrow’s data on NFPR, USA will help market to determine short term movement direction.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 1.3765. Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3735, 1.3720, 1.3700. Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3800 and 1.3820.

Trading tips

Long positions shall be placed above the level of 1.3780. Sell positions are recommended if the price consolidates below the level of 1.3735.


Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: General analysis

Current trend

Since March gold the price of gold has fallen by 100 USD per troy ounce. Many experts believe that decline in price will continue especially if American economy demonstrated new signs of recovery. At the moment gold prices are approaching the lower limit of the trading channel at the level of 1282.06. If this level is broken down, the price can go down to the level of 1200.00.

Note that US unemployment rate will become known today. According to forecast it shall decrease to 6.6%. If these expectations will be justified, the pair XAU/USD can continue to decline.
Deutsche Bank analysts think that gold will trade at the level of 1261.00 in 2014. Support to gold can be provided by Asian countries, where demand for gold is still high.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 1282.06 – lower limit of the trading channel.
Support level is 1300.00.
On the four hour chart Williams’ Percent Range indicator is in the range of (-91), showing that gold is oversold and short-term correction is possible soon. General trend is still downward.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1282.06 with stop loss at 1299.06 and a target of 1250.00.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: downtrend will continue

Current trend

On Thursday the Pound was under strong pressure. First of all it was associated with negative British news. It became known that PMI in the service sector fell by 0.6 points, which was below positive forecast. Additional pressure on the Pound put the rise in demand for American dollar amid the release of the US labour data. Investors give credit to the USD and expect that downtrend will continue. Even poor data on trade balance and a number of initial applications for unemployment benefits were not able to weaken the USD. Business activity index in the US service sector for March has grown, but did not reach expected level of 53.1 points. The release of British news is not expected today. Investors are waiting for the publication of the US key news, including unemployment rate and number of jobs outside agricultural sector. The forecast is positive. Decrease in the unemployment rate will support the USD and increase interest in American currency.

Support and resistance

At the moment the Pound refuses to budge and decline in price is slow. Key support level is 1.6550 – the lower limit of the ascending channel. If this level is broken down, next target will be at the level of 1.6400.
The lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen of Ichimoku indicator have merged in one point in anticipation of the fundamental news. If Tenkan breaks Kijun from bottom to top, the pair will retain ascending trend. Alternative scenario: downward movement will resume to the bottom limit of the channel at the level of 1.6400. Alternative scenario is very likely, which is proved by the slowdown in economic growth of the UK, as well as poor British statistics. Demand for the Pound has also decreased and British currency is significantly overbought.
Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6550, 1.6470 and 1.6400.
Resistance levels: 1.6660, 1.6700, 1.6760, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with take profit at the level of 1.6400 and stop loss at the level of 1.6700.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Last week was very eventful causing high market volatility. At the beginning of the week the pair unsuccessfully tried to break down the level of 1.3800. The rise in Euro was triggered by the statement of the chairman of German Central Bank that ECB will take measures only if inflation in EU continues. However, later European currency weakened against the USD following the speech by Mario Draghi, who said that regulator is considering options to further stimulate economy by unconventional ways. EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.3700. Last Friday the data on US new jobs outside agricultural sector became known. The index was higher than the previous month but below the forecast +192 thousand against the forecast of 200 thousand. This news has stirred the market up, however finally the pair remained at the level of 1.3700.

Support and resistance
At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.3700. Resistance levels are 1.3720, 1.3750, 1.3780, the latter one coincides with the level of 38.2% Fibonacci and is the main target of the bulls. Support levels: 1.3685, 1.3660 and 1.3645.

Trading tips
Long positions are recommended after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3780; however the pair EUR/USD is unlikely to rise higher up. Limit sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3780.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Обзор USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. After a strong rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line (0.8928), which becomes a resistance level. The closets support level is Kijun-sen line at 0.8883.



USD/CHF, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. Under the pressure of the Golden Cross the pair has entered the cloud, borders of which will be support (0.8892) and resistance levels (0.8966).



Key levels
Support levels: 0.8883, 0.8892.
Resistance levels: 0.8928, 0.8966.


Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of an ascending trend; on the daily chart the price has entered the cloud. It is not recommended to open new trades at current price, however pending orders can be placed at 0.8928 and 0.8883.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 7-11 April 2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general review

Current trend

During the last trading session volatility in Brent prices was high. The main reason causing high volatility was the news from Libya where the rebels agreed to resume operation of the two oil ports in the next few weeks. Resumption of work of these terminals will lead to the increase of oil supply up to 900 thousand barrels per day. Amid this news Brent fell to the level of 105.10. However, bears were not able to consolidate below this level. Today Brent returned to yesterday’s highs because of the technical correction.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 106.00, 105.10 and 104.40.
Resistance levels: 106.60, 107.00 and 108.00.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart Bollinger demonstrate slight convergence in response to the sideways movement in price. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are decreasing. Buy positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 107.00 with the target of 108.00. In case of downward movement, sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 106.00 with the targets of 105.10 and 104.40.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: downward movement will resume

Current trend

On Monday quotes of the currency pair GBP/USD had corrected after the decline of last week, growing by 60 points. The pair broke down the level of 1.6633, which coincides with the upper limit of Bollinger bands indicator, indicating reversal in the near future and continuation of the downward movement.
The data on British industrial production output in February will become known today. It is expected that this index, incorporating the volume of produced products, mining and utilities, will increase by 0.3%, providing support to the British currency . On the other hand, corporate reporting will start in the USA today. Aluminum giant Alcoa will be the first to submit the results. Positive reporting data will support the USD.

Support and resistance

In the nearest future the pair can continue to rise to the levels of 1.6646 and 16662. However, the rise will be followed by a reversal and gradual decline in price to the level of 1.6597 (middle line of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators show that the pair will continue to grow. MACD histogram is ready to move to the positive zone and form a buy signal. Stochastic lines has come to the overbought zone, forming a similar signal.
Resistance levels: 1.6646, 1.6662 and 1.6680.
Support levels: 1.6597, 1.6560 and 1.6539.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to open short positions from the level of 1.6633 with profit taking at 1.6597. Pending sell orders can be placed at the levels of 1.6646 and 1.6662.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The pair continues to grow and Tenkan-sen line is still a support level (0.8652). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8703.



NZD/USD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both line have turned upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. After a small correction the pair returned within Bullish trend. Tenkan-sen line is a support level at 0.8610. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8800.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.8652, 0.8610.
Resistance levels: 0.8703, 0.8800.

Trading tips

On the both charts the pair continues to rise. The targets for the long positions are 0.8703 and 0.8800.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: USD is waiting for support

Current trend

On Tuesday European currency received significant support from positive French news. It became known that trade balance has decreased to -3.4 billion euro. Another surge of investors’ demand for risky assets triggered the rise in pair to the key resistance level and upper channel of the descending channel at 1.3800. Today, despite negative trading and payment balance of Germany investor sentiments continue support European currency. Later today, all attention will be focused on the minutes of FOMC meeting

Support and resistance

In advance of the US key news, demand for the USD can increase. Positive assessment of the American economy in the minutes of FOMC meeting can make the pair go back to the descending channel. Alternative scenario: breakdown of the upper limit of the channel with the targets of 1.3900 and 1.3960.

Support levels: 1.3770, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3600 and 1.3550.
Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3900 and 1.3960.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions with stop loss near the opening level with the targets of 1.3700 and 1.3630.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies