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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 10, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The latest Japanese producer price data strengthened the case for the yen. The index rose by 7.1% year on year in June, compared with expectations of 6.8%. Import prices in yen terms also increased at their fastest pace since 2022. Rising cost pressures make it more likely that the Bank of Japan will return to the issue of further interest rate increases.

The central bank has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs on to consumers more quickly. Following the June rate increase to 1%, markets are considering the possibility of another move before the end of the year. This is gradually reducing the US dollar’s advantage in interest-rate-differential trades. US Treasury yields still support the American currency, but lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve decision are weakening this factor.

Yen weakness is also increasing import costs and keeping the foreign exchange market under close scrutiny from the Japanese authorities. The risk of official action does not determine the direction on its own. However, it is now accompanied by a fresh inflation signal and a stronger basis for further Bank of Japan action. Under these conditions, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario unless the US dollar receives renewed support from US economic data.

Trading idea: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:



For the euro, the key factor today is not only pressure from higher energy prices, but also the market’s reassessment of ECB expectations. Rising oil prices are again increasing inflation risks in the eurozone, reducing the likelihood of an overly soft stance from the central bank. The regional economy remains sensitive to import costs, but the inflation channel may temporarily support the euro.

The US dollar remains supported by geopolitical tension and higher US Treasury yields. However, part of this advantage has already been priced in after the recent reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations. Ahead of the US inflation release, market participants may be more cautious about increasing dollar exposure, especially if they expect confirmation of slower price pressure in the US. This creates room for a recovery in EURUSD.

Under the baseline scenario, the euro’s advantage looks moderate, but more justified than continued selling after a strong reaction to the external shock. If ECB expectations remain steady and US data does not strengthen the case for a tougher Federal Reserve stance, the pair may receive support. Against the current fundamental backdrop, the buying idea looks like a workable scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1400, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1490

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | July 17, 2026


XAUUSD: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00




Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00


#SP500: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150




The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.

At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150


#BRENT: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30




Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.

Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.

Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for July 14, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4034.52-4085.82, TP1-3983.22, TP2-3797.92.

• Long-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the current contract lies within the 4070.00–4120.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.



• Medium-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the medium-term trend lies within the 4095.00–4115.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

• The favorable selling price zone (based on margin requirements) is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, calculated from the low of July 14, 2026.

• Lower boundary of the 1/4 zone: 4034.52.

• Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone: 4085.82.

• Intraday targets: Breaking the low of July 14, 2026 (3983.22).

• Medium-term goals: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3797.92.



• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 4034.52-4085.82, Take Profit 1–3983.22, Take Profit 2–3797.92.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 15, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD – Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to deliver the semi-annual report to the US Congress

GBPUSD​:



The pound enters the European session on a firmer footing after softer US inflation reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. Lower US Treasury yields weakened the dollar’s advantage and supported GBP/USD. However, the move remains restrained as the market awaits further evidence that the slowdown in US price pressures was not temporary.

The UK’s domestic backdrop provides limited but noticeable support for sterling. The Bank of England Governor noted that renewed escalation in the Middle East had increased uncertainty but had not yet materially changed the UK inflation outlook. This reduces the risk of an abrupt shift in the central bank’s policy stance, although high oil prices and elevated borrowing costs remain vulnerabilities for the economy.

Political and fiscal uncertainty limits the potential for one-sided gains in the British currency. Nevertheless, during the current session, the broader dollar factor appears stronger than the pound’s domestic risks. The weaker US inflation report has already changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy. If producer price data does not reverse this signal, the baseline scenario supports further gains in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3405, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3480

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 16, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.



The Bitcoin outlook has remained largely unchanged over the past trading session. After slightly breaking above the previous Wave 1 high, the price has paused. This is likely just a brief consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend begins.

The current scenario still favors further upside as Wave 3 of the bullish impulse starts to unfold.

As a result, long positions continue to offer an attractive trading opportunity.

New positions may be considered on a breakout above the nearest local high at 65,550.

Investment idea: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

XAUUSD in turmoil: traders await the outcome


Over the past month, #XAUUSD has shown a sharp decline and increased volatility. From June 15 to July 15, gold fell by approximately 6%, dropping from around $4,300 to $4,050 per ounce. The instrument’s further dynamics will primarily depend on Federal Reserve decisions, U.S. inflation data, and developments in the Middle East: easing inflationary pressure may support a price recovery, while rising oil prices and expectations of rate hikes could trigger a new wave of selling.

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Growth Factors

• Weak U.S. labor market data. In June, the U.S. economy added only 57K jobs versus the expected 110K, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. Amid a weaker dollar, gold rose by more than 2% on July 2.
• Slowing consumer inflation. A weaker-than-expected June CPI report prompted market participants to revise their outlook on further Fed tightening. On July 14, XAUUSD gained more than 2%, while the dollar lost about 0.6%.
• Decline in U.S. producer prices. The PPI index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, marking the largest drop in 14 months. The data helped gold recover after an initial decline and eased concerns about aggressive rate hikes.

Downside Factors

• Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. After the June FOMC meeting, investors raised expectations for further rate hikes, while U.S. bond yields and the dollar surged. As early as June 17, gold reversed downward, with the decline continuing over several sessions.
• Strengthening U.S. dollar. By June 23, the dollar index reached a roughly one-year high, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The next day, XAUUSD fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.
• Rising oil prices and escalating tensions with Iran. Renewed tensions in the Middle East led to a surge in oil prices and increased concerns about accelerating inflation. As a result, traditional safe-haven demand for gold was outweighed by rate hike expectations, and on July 13 the metal dropped by around 3%.

From June 15 to the present, gold’s movement has been marked by sharp reversals, with daily price changes exceeding 2% in several sessions. Going forward, recovery may continue if the dollar weakens and rate hike expectations decline. However, rising oil prices and persistent inflation risks may again increase pressure on the metal.

According to FreshForex analysts, traders should closely monitor developments in the Middle East, U.S. economic data releases, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations can lead to strong movements in XAUUSD in both directions. Increased market activity creates additional trading opportunities, so consider trading #XAUUSD with proper risk management.

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