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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 22, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:



USD/JPY remains near 161.5, with the response of Japanese authorities becoming increasingly important. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the authorities are ready to respond to currency movements at any time if necessary. The exchange rate has approached the 2024 high of 161.96; a move above that level would leave the yen at its weakest point since 1986. As a result, official comments have a meaningful impact on market expectations for the pair.

The US dollar’s interest rate advantage remains in place. The Federal Reserve left its rate range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing a resilient economy and elevated inflation, while two-year US Treasury yields rose to their highest level since early 2025. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to around 1.0% on June 16 and signalled that further policy normalisation remains possible, although the gap with US rates is still substantial.

The risk profile for USD/JPY has become asymmetric: the macroeconomic backdrop supports the US dollar, but the probability of an official response from Japan rises as the pair approaches sensitive levels. Even without direct action from the authorities, growing expectations of intervention may quickly support the yen. Therefore, the more cautious base case suggests a decline in the pair if the current news environment persists.

Trading idea: SELL 161.55, SL 161.85, TP 160.65

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 26 June 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4195.00, SL 4225.00, TP 4105.00




Gold starts the week near $4,195 per ounce after recovering from recent lows. The main constraint remains expectations of higher US interest rates: following the Federal Reserve’s decision, the US dollar strengthened and short-term US Treasury yields rose. This reduces the appeal of a non-yielding asset.

Progress in US-Iran negotiations has reduced demand for defensive assets, although the fragility of the agreements may limit further downside. US core inflation data could reinforce expectations of a restrictive policy stance. If this backdrop remains in place, the priority remains a decline in XAUUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 4195.00, SL 4225.00, TP 4105.00


#SP500: BUY 7520, SL 7460, TP 7700




The US equity market starts the week with continued interest in the technology sector. Progress in US-Iran negotiations has eased concerns about rising energy costs, while demand for semiconductor stocks has supported Asian markets. This creates a favourable environment for #SP500.

The main risk for the index is linked to interest rate expectations. The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while the market has increased the probability of another rate hike later this year. US Treasury yields may limit valuations of growth stocks, but resilient earnings expectations and lower geopolitical tensions continue to support the case for further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7520, SL 7460, TP 7700


#BRENT: SELL 81.00, SL 82.00, TP 78.00




Brent starts the week near $81 per barrel, with the outlook for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main factor. US-Iran negotiations have raised hopes of lower tensions, but the final agreement is designed to last 60 days, and the recovery of shipping activity and export flows may take time.

At the same time, diplomatic progress is easing concerns about a supply shortage. The IEA expects a gradual recovery in regional exports and sees a supply surplus further ahead; EIA inventory data will provide an additional indication of market conditions. If the negotiations do not break down, the fundamental backdrop allows for a decline in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 81.00, SL 82.00, TP 78.00


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for June 23, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 30100.0-30377.5, TP1-30655.0, TP2-31274.2.

Long-term trend: bullish. The largest volume concentration in the current contract is located in the 29950.0–30200.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest volume concentration for the medium-term trend is located in the 30320.0–30420.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating weak buying interest.

The favourable price area for buying from a margin perspective lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of 18 June 2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 30377.5.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 30100.0.

Intraday target: a retest of the 18 June 2026 high at 30655.0.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 31274.2.



Investment guidance: consider buying within the favourable price range once a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 30100.0-30377.5, Take Profit 1-30655.0, Take Profit 2-31274.2.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 24, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:



The euro starts the day near 1.1375 after weak euro area business activity data. The preliminary composite PMI rose to 49.5 in June but remained below the neutral threshold for a third consecutive month, while the services sector continued to contract. For the single currency, this matters more than a one-off improvement in the headline figure: weak new orders and cautious corporate activity point to continued vulnerability in domestic demand.

The ECB raised key interest rates on June 11 in response to inflation risks linked to energy markets. However, weak services activity and a more moderate pace of cost growth limit the scope for further tightening, as the central bank also has to consider the risk of slower economic growth. As a result, the latest decision alone does not create a lasting advantage for the euro over the US dollar.

The US dollar, by contrast, continues to benefit from shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. After the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, markets became more inclined to price in another rate increase later this year, while weaker risk sentiment supported demand for the dollar. As long as the divergence in expectations between the Federal Reserve and the ECB remains in focus, EUR/USD may remain biased to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1375, SL 1.1405, TP 1.1285

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Oil is searching for a bottom, shell and exxon await the outcome


The oil market is increasingly shaped by the struggle between two opposing factors. On one hand, the temporary easing of restrictions on Iranian oil operations and the partial restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing concerns about supply shortages. On the other hand, a full recovery of supply will take time, and global logistics are still far from normal.

As a result, oil prices and energy stocks are reacting not only to current supply volumes but also to market expectations. If tankers continue returning to regular routes, downward pressure on oil prices may intensify. However, new disruptions or a deterioration of the regional situation could quickly restore the risk premium.

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Key drivers of energy markets:

1. #BRENT — a barometer of the Persian Gulf situation. For Brent, the key factor is the speed of export recovery and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Improved logistics will put pressure on prices, while new disruptions could quickly support demand for the contract.
2. #WTI — impact of U.S. inventories. WTI is receiving mixed signals: the global situation suggests a potential increase in supply, but declining U.S. oil inventories support expectations of a tighter domestic balance.

Key drivers of oil company stocks:

1.#Shell — a bet on the recovery of global flows. For Shell, normalization of international oil and petroleum product supply chains is crucial. Improved logistics may reduce disruption risks, but falling oil prices could simultaneously limit investor interest in the stock.
2.#Exxon — balancing upstream and downstream. For Exxon, further declines in oil prices may weaken expectations for upstream revenues. At the same time, fuel demand in the U.S. and refining segment performance could partially support the company’s financial results.

The key question for the entire sector is whether the partial recovery in supply will prove sustainable. #BRENT remains most sensitive to news from the Persian Gulf, while #WTI depends more on U.S. inventory data. For #Shell, global logistics and refined product trade are critical, whereas #Exxon depends on the balance between oil prices, production, and U.S. fuel demand.

According to FreshForex analysts, in the coming weeks the market will focus less on statements and more on actual data: tanker traffic, export volumes, inventory trends, and the ability of oil companies to maintain financial performance amid lower oil prices. At the same time, the remaining unsold volumes of Iranian oil after sanctions relief at the end of June should not be overlooked, as they create a hidden risk of sudden supply increases and price declines. Even under a positive scenario, it is important to manage risk in advance and consider the possibility of sharp sentiment shifts.

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