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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 3, 2026 EURUSD

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is trading near 1.1630, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors’ cautious attitude toward risk assets. An additional factor was the US labor market data: the number of job openings in April rose to 7.6 million, indicating continued steady demand for labor.

For the euro, the situation is complicated by accelerating inflation in the eurozone. According to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, annual consumer price growth in May rose to 3.2% after 3.0% in April. Rising energy prices increase pressure on businesses and households, while also complicating the ECB’s task. At the same time, the eurozone economy remains sensitive to expensive resources and weak external demand.

In the US, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for April rose by 3.8% year-on-year, while the core indicator increased by 3.3% year-on-year. Such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing of Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar. If geopolitical tensions and strong US data persist, EUR/USD may continue to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1540

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Oil back in the spotlight!


Oil #WTI and #BRENT remain among the most sensitive assets in the market. Prices continue to be supported by tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of supply disruptions. According to Reuters, on June 2, #BRENT closed near $96 per barrel, while #WTI settled around $93.76, extending gains amid expectations of new developments regarding Iran and global oil supplies.

The key driver for the market remains geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a major risk point, as a significant share of global oil and gas flows passes through this route, and any restrictions on its operation increase supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure, declining oil inventories ahead of the high-demand summer season, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement involving Iran. At the same time, upside potential is being limited by signs of weakening demand. Elevated prices are already forcing consumers and industries to reduce consumption, while the International Energy Agency has reported softer demand from both the petrochemical and aviation sectors.



5 factors currently driving #WTI and #BRENT:

1. The Strait of Hormuz. Restrictions on shipping through one of the world’s most important oil transit routes support prices and increase the risk premium.
2. US-Iran negotiations. Any signs of a breakthrough agreement could push prices lower, while failed talks or renewed escalation could trigger another strong rally.
3. Oil inventories. Traders are closely monitoring stockpiles in the US and globally. Continued inventory declines ahead of the summer season may provide further support for WTI and BRENT.
4. Demand from China, aviation, and petrochemicals. If high prices begin to weigh more heavily on consumption, oil may enter a corrective phase.
5. Production growth outside the Middle East. The US, Brazil, Argentina, and other producers are partially offsetting supply shortages, but so far not enough to fully ease market tensions.

Changes in oil prices also affect the shares of major energy companies. Rising #WTI and #BRENT prices typically support oil producers such as ExxonMobil (#Exxon), Chevron (#Chevron), ConocoPhillips (#ConPhillip), Shell (#Shell), BP (#BP), and TotalEnergies (#Total). Higher oil prices generally boost revenue and profit margins for producers, as they can sell crude at higher prices while operating costs remain relatively stable. This can improve financial performance and increase investor interest in their stocks.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for June 4, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 59500, SL 62500, TP 48000.



It was previously assumed that the alternative scenario was the most likely one for this asset. This scenario предполагает the formation of a more complex large corrective structure—a triple zigzag. This interpretation explains the resumption of the downward price movement that we are currently observing.

For an extended period, the price traded within a broad range while forming a simple zigzag, with a leading diagonal triangle serving as wave (a). Recently, this correction appears to have been completed, and the asset transitioned into a directional downward movement in an impulsive form.

During yesterday’s trading session, a critical level confirming the bearish scenario was also breached.

In the near future, further downside movement is expected, making short positions worth considering.

Investment idea: SELL 59500, SL 62500, TP 48000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 5, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is trading near 1.1615, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors’ cautious attitude toward risk assets. Brent is holding above $90 per barrel, increasing concerns about inflation and supporting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

For the euro, the situation remains difficult. Rising energy prices increase costs for businesses and households in the eurozone, which worsens the outlook for industry and consumer demand. The ECB is in a difficult position: inflation risks require caution, while weak economic dynamics limit the room for more decisive action.

Today, the market’s attention is focused on the US employment report. The number of jobs is expected to have increased by 85,000 in May, while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3%. If the data confirms the resilience of the labor market, the dollar may maintain its advantage, while EUR/USD may continue to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1615, SL 1.1645, TP 1.1525

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 8, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is trading near 1.3340, remaining close to three-week lows after the strong US labor market report. The dollar gained support as investors started to factor in a higher probability of a more elevated Fed rate by the end of the year. This creates external pressure on the pound: even a local recovery does not look sustainable while US statistics confirm the strength of the American economy and support demand for the dollar.

The domestic background for the pound also does not provide a solid reason for growth. This week, market attention is shifting to the UK GDP data for April. Expectations of weak economic dynamics increase doubts that the Bank of England will be able to maintain a stricter policy stance without damaging business activity. The market is factoring in the probability of a rate increase, but weak growth makes support for the pound less stable.

The base-case scenario for today is continued pressure on GBP/USD. If demand for the dollar remains high and investors continue preparing for strong US inflation data, the pair may extend its decline. The pound may receive short-term support only if expectations for the UK economy improve clearly, but the current fundamental balance remains in favor of the dollar.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3335, SL 1.3365, TP 1.3245

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 12 June 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00



Gold starts the week under pressure after a strong US labor market report. The data strengthened expectations of a higher Fed rate, supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. This is a negative factor for gold, as the asset does not generate interest income.

At the same time, the decline may be limited by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and demand for safe-haven assets. However, over the weekly horizon, Fed policy expectations remain the key factor: if the market continues to price in a higher rate, XAU/USD may retain its downward bias.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00


#SP500: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220



The US stock market enters the new week after a strong sell-off in the technology sector. Pressure increased after the US employment report: the resilient labor market reduced expectations of a quick easing of Fed policy and made investors more sensitive to upcoming inflation data.

Additional risk for #SP500 comes from rising oil prices and tensions in the Middle East, as these factors may increase inflation expectations and put pressure on corporate costs. Over the weekly horizon, the base-case scenario is a cautious decline in the index while risk appetite remains unstable.

Trading recommendation: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220


#BRENT: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50



Brent starts the week higher amid a renewed escalation between Israel and Iran. The market is again assessing risks to oil supplies through the Middle East, including possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. This supports prices despite investor caution after strong US economic data.

The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas from July remains a limiting factor. However, the actual effect may be limited if geopolitical risks continue to disrupt stable exports. This week, the fundamental balance for Brent remains moderately positive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50

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