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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. March 24. The King Switched from Fury to Favor



The EUR/USD currency pair traded quietly and calmly on Monday, with no signs of trouble—until Donald Trump took the stage and shocked the markets. The US President announced that "very good negotiations" had taken place with Tehran over the past few days, thus postponing his decision to strike Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. As a result, the dollar immediately plunged across the currency market, oil and gas prices fell, and Bitcoin surged upwards. Thank you, Mr. President! However, just half an hour later, Iranian officials reported that no negotiations were taking place with Washington and that Trump was simply afraid of retaliation for any strikes on energy infrastructure announced over the weekend. Recall that on Sunday, Tehran issued a statement asserting that if the US Air Force launched strikes against Iranian energy, it would immediately retaliate against all US allies in the Middle East. The strikes would not only target power plants but also water purification facilities and information technology assets (internet infrastructure). However, Trump continues to insist that the war will soon be over, that negotiations are ongoing, and that the conflict in the Middle East will cease shortly. Once again, it is appropriate to note a few characteristics common to all of Trump's actions. First, there's the TACO principle—"Trump Always Chickens Out." All traders are familiar with this principle, which reflects the US President's constant threats followed by retreats. Of course, it doesn't always work, but it often does. Second, Trump has once again (with a high degree of likelihood) made a statement that does not align with reality. Recall that during Trump's first term, many polling agencies specifically counted how many times a day he made false statements. They counted about 15... Third, as we mentioned earlier, Trump can declare a total victory of "good over evil" and withdraw from the game at any moment. Why not? Iranian missiles cannot physically reach America, and Iran's strikes against allies in the region are unlikely to seriously trouble the US leader. He attempted to eliminate the "Iranian nuclear threat" and execute a coup in Iran. That didn't work. Now it's time to announce complete victory and end the US participation in this war. By the way, the US Navy has already moved hundreds of kilometers away from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, whether the war continues or not, the US will no longer participate. The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until Iran decides to unblock it. And how much time that will take is anyone's guess. Most likely, Iran will now use the Strait of Hormuz to blackmail the world in order to lift as many sanctions as possible and gain as many concessions as possible. Notably, Europe may be interested in this.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days, as of March 24, is 117 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1478 and 1.1712 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned sideways, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has re-entered oversold territory and formed a "bullish" divergence, once again signaling the potential end of the downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. March 25. Geopolitics: More Rumors than Facts



The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Tuesday than the day before. Donald Trump held back on promises to end the war in the Middle East this time, but knowing Trump, negotiations between Washington and Tehran may indeed be taking place. The problem is that Trump enjoys shocking the markets. He can build tension for weeks (as he did with Greenland) and then pull back.

He can say one thing and do completely another. He can remain silent for weeks and then douse the markets with a bucket of cold water. Therefore, it makes little sense to guess what is really happening in the Middle East. However, the markets do not know how to remain passive. If you can predict future events, it means you can profit from them. This has always been the case. Traders and investors have always tried to anticipate specific events with a certain degree of probability. So now, with Trump announcing negotiations and a possible end to the war, it means that the American president is at least open to a ceasefire. Of course, this is a rather hypocritical ceasefire. For three weeks, the US and its allies bombed Iran, and now it seems they are tired of it and suddenly want peace. Meanwhile, Iran has reciprocated in kind. Perhaps Trump understands that achieving the set goals will be impossible, or perhaps the goals have indeed been achieved: nuclear facilities have been destroyed or nearly destroyed. If so, why continue costly military operations that fuel inflation in the US, thereby effectively blocking the monetary easing that Trump desperately needs?

Iran also has no desire for the continuation of war; it has endured all strikes on its territory and infrastructure and has maintained its sovereignty and independence. What is the point of continuing to fight against a not-so-wealthy country that has been surviving for decades, not living? Thus, the likelihood of at least ceasing hostilities is quite high. In recent days, there have even been reports that civilian vessels have started passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is simply charging a fee for the passage of tankers. It is difficult to assess how true this is, but as we know, there is no smoke without fire. If the Strait of Hormuz is opened under any conditions, it would already be half a solution to the problem.

However, we fear that the entire story about a possible end to the war could be a maneuver by Trump to lull Iran's vigilance and then deliver new strikes. This scenario cannot be ruled out either. Therefore, the euro and the pound received support from geopolitics this week, but we can only talk about an upward trend once there is a real de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The market may return to buying the US currency at any moment if it realizes that Trump has once again misled everyone.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of March 25 is 111 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1479 and 1.1701 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, warning once again of the completion of the downward trend.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. March 26. Trump Negotiates. By Himself



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday amid a complete lack of significant macroeconomic and fundamental events, as well as only geopolitical rumors. In terms of fundamentals and macroeconomics, such market behavior does not surprise us at all. For over a month, traders have been reacting only to geopolitical events. Otherwise, the dollar would merrily plunge into the abyss again. It is worth recalling that nearly all recent reports from across the ocean have been disappointing, yet the dollar remains in demand as a "safe haven." It should also be noted that the ECB and the Bank of England have demonstrated their readiness to raise key rates at the next meeting in response to a likely acceleration in inflation, while the Fed has only postponed further easing indefinitely. Thus, almost all factors, except for geopolitics, are sharply against the dollar. However, the dollar remains relatively expensive because the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. A massive number of rumors and insider reports are circulating, indicating completely opposite developments. Some suggest active preparations for negotiations, while others point to a new escalation of military actions. Who should one believe? The market no longer trusts anyone. If on Monday Donald Trump openly stated that he was having productive talks with Iran, and just half an hour later Tehran bewilderingly rejected the idea of any negotiations, then what insider information can traders trust? It should be understood that most so-called insiders are merely newspaper hoaxes intended to increase traffic to a particular resource or boost sales of certain publications. Quite simply, these are standard journalistic tactics to attract attention to their own articles and profit from it. Typically, the source of the insider is not even disclosed. That's why it's called an insider! Therefore, any journalist can say anything, citing "their own sources." The truthfulness of such statements and news can currently be assessed. Iran's official position is that no negotiations are underway at this time and, moreover, that they are pointless. According to rumors, Donald Trump, through Pakistan, proposed a 15-point agreement to Tehran, the contents of which are unknown. One can only speculate that it concerns the easing of sanctions and the negotiation of Iran's nuclear program. At the same time, the US has begun redeploying ground troops to the Middle East, likely in the event negotiations fail. However, how can negotiations fail if they are not even taking place? All of this resembles that Trump is actively pretending to want to end the war or simply does not know how to do it, and therefore is willing to take any measures. A far more likely scenario is not negotiations, but further escalation. Iran continues to stand firm—no one dares to dictate what Tehran should do. Until Washington accepts this position of a sovereign state, any negotiations are impossible by definition.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of March 26 is 109 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1461 and 1.1679 on Thursday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the conclusion of the downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD on March 27. Euro Prospects Are Crumbling

EUR/USD 5M Analysis



he EUR/USD currency pair declined further on Thursday and ultimately approached the ascending trend line and the important Senkou Span B line. A breakout of these two lines today would essentially pave the way for the dollar to rise again. However, if the support levels hold against the bearish pressure, the euro could have a chance of a new upward move. Nevertheless, recent weeks have shown how weak the European currency is under the current, grim geopolitical circumstances. Yesterday, the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East did not worsen, but today, Donald Trump could issue a new order to attack Iran. The five-day deadline that Trump generously granted Tehran on Monday expires today. Since no negotiations or ceasefires have been observed, the US may soon begin strikes on Iranian energy and attempt a ground operation. Thus, geopolitical events clearly do not strengthen the European currency. Technically, the upward trend is still intact but is hanging by a thread. A consolidation below the trend line would, once again, mean we will not see a normal upward trend. The market continues to ignore all factors except geopolitical ones, which, in most cases, support the dollar. On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals and one buy signal were formed yesterday. The movements throughout the day were weak, making it extremely difficult to profit. Throughout the European session, the pair attempted to form a rebound from the Kijun-sen line before showing a downward movement of 25 pips. However, sellers' joy was short-lived. By half an hour later, a buy signal formed, but it also did not bring any profit to traders.

COT Report



The last COT report dates back to March 17. The weekly chart clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is swiftly declining due to geopolitical events at the beginning of 2026. Traders are dumping the European currency in favor of the US dollar. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is once again acting as a "reserve currency," which is driving a sharp influx of buyers. We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency. However, there are plenty of factors for the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has temporarily made the dollar super attractive, but once this factor loses its relevance, everything could revert to the mean. In the long term, the euro could fall to levels as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend remains relevant. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate a retention of the "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, long positions for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 52,800, while short positions increased by 31,200. Consequently, the net position has decreased by 84,000 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a weak and uncertain upward trend that is on the verge of being canceled. New escalations in the Middle East, new shocks in the oil or gas markets, and the expansion of the conflict beyond the Middle East could provoke a new wave of dollar buying; therefore, the current trend is quite formal. Any increase in the European currency now is inherently unstable and depends on Trump's will. For March 27, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the lines Senkou Span B (1.1538) and Kijun-sen (1.1563). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Friday, no significant events are scheduled in the European Union, while in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be published. Volatility throughout the day may again leave much to be desired unless geopolitical factors intervene.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on March 30? Simple Tips and Transaction Analysis for Beginners

Friday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its weak downward movement on Friday. After a surge in the pair's quotes on Monday, when Donald Trump unexpectedly shocked markets with news of successful and productive negotiations with Iran, the euro fell throughout the rest of the week, while the dollar rose. This is not surprising, as Trump's statements were not substantiated over the week. Perhaps the US president is negotiating with someone, but Iran seems unaware of this. Tehran has even openly stated that Trump is negotiating with himself and that all his conciliatory rhetoric is aimed at stabilizing oil, gas, and fuel prices. As we can see, yet again, Trump's brilliant scheme did not succeed. Energy prices continue to rise, American military forces are still being deployed to the Middle East, and currency traders anticipate a new cycle of escalation in the conflict, prompting them to move their capital into the safe dollar.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

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On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday, but the nature of the movements left much to be desired, and volatility dropped to minimal levels. The price crossed the 1.1527-1.1531 area three times, but each time it moved only 10-15 pips in the correct direction. Therefore, making a profit on Friday was quite challenging. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the upward correction is continuing, but it could shift into a new round of the 2026 downward trend at any time. A long-term upward trend was restored in early 2026, and we still expect new long-term growth for the euro currency. The overall fundamental background remains very challenging for the US dollar; however, geopolitics is currently the primary focus for the market. This is what prevents the pair from resuming the global upward trend. On Monday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price bounces from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1455-1.1474. A consolidation above the 1.1527-1.1531 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1584-1.1591. On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Monday, one of the more or less important events is the German inflation report, expected to jump to 2.6% in March. This information is unlikely to be well received by traders and may not support the European currency; however, rising inflation brings the moment of the ECB's first tightening closer.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. March 31. The American Comedy Approaches its Finale



The EUR/USD currency pair has continued its lethargic downward movement. It seems the market responds daily to Donald Trump's statements that the end of the war in the Middle East is near, that America will achieve all its goals, capture all the oil in the region, and that Tehran is ready to accept any terms of the agreement just to end the war. If anyone didn't get it, this is sarcasm. If the US dollar is strengthening, it means the market is still only expecting one thing – an escalation of the conflict. Otherwise, risk-averse sentiments would have diminished, and investors would have begun seeking more favorable refuges for their capital than the dollar. In recent days, Trump has made numerous "important" statements that Iran continues to stubbornly reject and deny.



According to Trump, Iran has agreed to accept most of the 15-point agreement. Therefore, Washington is considering asking for a few more points. Meanwhile, Iran has stated that it has not given any consent to "Trump's plan" and has instead put forward its own five conditions. Iran's five conditions seem quite logical and transparent, unlike Trump's 15 ultimatums that no one knows anything about. Iran wants reparations, payment for foreign ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of sanctions. Otherwise, the war will continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked. Incidentally, Yemen officially entered the war today, launching several strikes against Israel.



Let's remember that Yemen has previously threatened to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which would surely drive oil prices to $150-200 per barrel. Thus, we believe the trump cards are in Iran's hands, while Trump has only a couple of mediocre cards he is desperately trying to bluff with. Just yesterday, the US president stated that if Iran refuses the proposed terms, America will completely destroy Iranian power plants, oil fields, Kharg Island, and desalination plants. Can such a statement frighten Iran? In our opinion, no.

Not all power plants can be destroyed, and Iran will respond with strikes against American bases and allies in the region, while the Iranian government is currently earning three times more from oil exports than before the war. Just a month ago, before the war, Iran was exporting about 1 million barrels per day at around $47 per barrel. Now it is exporting 1.5 million barrels per day at $124 per barrel.

Therefore, Iran, as strange as it may sound, is not losing from this war. Iran, possessing not only vast oil reserves but also control over the Strait of Hormuz, can now dictate its terms to the whole world. Want to fight? Fine, you will pay 2-3-4 times as much for oil and gas as before the war. And with the money earned from oil sales, Iran will then calmly restore all the destroyed infrastructure. However, it is unlikely that Trump will simply back down and recognize his defeat in the Middle East. Most likely, a ground offensive, at least on Khark Island, will still happen.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 1. The Market is Tired of the Dollar



The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly began to rise on Tuesday. This event seems like a miracle considering that oil prices continue to soar. If oil prices are rising, it means the market is expecting deteriorating conditions in the Middle East and an increasing global shortage of "black gold." Thus, a new rise of the US currency would have been much more logical. However, perhaps the market has finally become saturated with dollar purchases? Let's remember that conflicts of various scales flare up around the world regularly. For example, the war in Ukraine has been ongoing for 5 years, and the dollar initially rose sharply due to this event. However, sooner or later, geopolitics gets forgotten or takes a back seat. The market simply cannot constantly react only to geopolitics, and military conflicts around the world do not end. Therefore, we have long said: the dollar can rise to almost any value, but when the geopolitical factor becomes tiresome for the markets, it will resume its decline. On the higher time frames, it is clear that the uptrend is still intact, despite the pair's 650-point decline over the past two months. This is evident even on the daily chart, where, for example, the local low from August 1 of last year has not been broken. The four-year uptrend is even more evident on the weekly chart. If the dollar has been falling for four years now, with no support from fundamentals, macroeconomics, or the U.S. president, can a single geopolitical event (even one like the situation in the Middle East) completely reverse the long-term trend? In our view, no. We are not claiming that yesterday's downward move has ended 100%, but at the same time, the dollar has been rising recently, almost exclusively on geopolitics. All other factors have been ignored. You have to agree that this cannot last forever. By the way, yesterday a fairly important inflation report for March was published in the Eurozone. The Consumer Price Index rose to 2.5% year-over-year, slightly below expectations. Thus, a more predictable market reaction would be a decline of the euro. After all, the lower the inflation, the less likely the ECB is to tighten monetary policy. However, on Tuesday, we saw once again that the market pays little attention to the macroeconomic background. Some experts might write that inflation has still accelerated significantly, but let's remember that the market anticipates these forecasts in advance. Therefore, it is prepared in advance for them. Traders react to the relationship between actual and forecast values. In the current situation, the pair could even begin a rise that is at least as strong as the preceding decline. If geopolitics no longer interests currency traders, it means the dollar is losing its only growth factor. In this case, it may resume its free fall off a cliff that began with Trump's second term. Remember that the American president does not want a strong dollar, as it further reduces the likelihood of achieving a positive trade balance for the US. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the past five trading days as of April 1 is 69 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1454 and 1.1592 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend. However, geopolitics continues to weigh on the pair. Nearby Support Levels: S1 – 1.1475 S2 – 1.1353 S3 – 1.1230 Nearby Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, driven by geopolitical factors. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for over a month, the market has been paying attention solely to geopolitics, rendering all other factors virtually irrelevant. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1454 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1719. For a stronger upward movement, the geopolitical backdrop must at least start to improve.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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