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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 06, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

06.03 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding near 157.50 and maintains an upward bias, as the dollar continues to receive support from safe-haven demand. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and this is particularly unfavorable for Japan, which remains a major energy importer. At the same time, the market has become more cautious in assessing the scale of future US rate cuts, which also works in favor of the dollar.

There is also a limiting factor for the pair, and it is related to Japan. According to economist surveys, the market expects a further rate increase by the Bank of Japan by the end of June, while the central bank leadership has indicated that the March and April meetings will be important for assessing inflation and wage data. This supports the yen and limits the speed of USD/JPY growth, but for now it does not change the overall balance of forces.

As a result, the market remains caught between two themes: expectations of a firmer stance from the Bank of Japan and the current advantage of the dollar amid high oil prices and increased investor caution. For now, the second theme looks stronger. If external tensions do not ease, the base-case scenario for today remains a moderate move higher in USD/JPY, with buying positions taking priority from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.50, SL 157.20, TP 158.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 13 March 2026​

XAUUSD: 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00

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Gold enters the week near $5,100 per ounce as investors seek safety amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. Additional support comes from central bank buying and strong demand for the metal across Asia.

This week, attention will shift to U.S. inflation data and regulators’ response to higher energy costs. If tensions persist, demand for gold may strengthen; if risks ease and the dollar firms, pullbacks are possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00



#SP500: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460




The S&P 500 starts the week near 6,700 under pressure: the surge in oil raises corporate costs and fuels inflation concerns. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious toward risk assets and increasingly prefer currencies and bonds.

Next, the market will watch the release of U.S. inflation data and officials’ comments on the impact of expensive energy. If expectations for higher rates become entrenched, the index may continue to decline even alongside solid corporate results.

Trade recommendation: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460



#BRENT: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50




Brent is holding around $102.35 per barrel after extreme swings as the market prices in supply disruption risks linked to the war and threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, measures to release part of strategic reserves are being discussed, which is limiting the upside.

In the coming days, the tone will be set by news on route security, OPEC+ decisions, and reports on the supply-demand balance. If logistics disruptions persist, prices may accelerate again; if tensions ease and reserves are released, a correction is possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for March 10, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 24471.1–24748.6, TP1 25026.1, TP2 25635.1.

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Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located in the 25550.0–25750.0 range. At present, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place below this range, which indicates seller strength. #NQ100: BUY 24471.1–24748.6, TP1 25026.1, TP2 25635.1.

Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of volumes within the medium-term trend is located in the 24320.0–24380.0 range. At present, investment activity in #NQ100 is taking place above this range, which indicates buyer strength.

The favorable buying area from the perspective of margin requirements is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the high of 09.03.2026.

The quote at the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 24748.6.

The quote at the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 24471.1.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the highs from 09.03.2026 at 25026.1.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the marginal control zone (GWCZ) at 25635.1. #NQ100: BUY 24471.1–24748.6, TP1 25026.1, TP2 25635.1.



Investment recommendation: consider buying from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 24471.1–24748.6, Take Profit 1: 25026.1, Take Profit 2: 25635.1.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#BRENT surged: what’s happening?

Recently, #BRENT climbed from the $70 area to an intraday peak of about $119.50 per barrel, and then remained noticeably above previous levels. The market pushed prices higher not because of abstract expectations, but due to a real threat of disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. At first, investors priced in fears of escalation around Iran, and later saw actual shipment problems and production cuts from major producers.

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5 factors behind the rally:

• Escalation around Iran sharply increased anxiety in the oil market. Strikes and retaliatory actions in the region forced buyers to urgently price in the risk of a major supply disruption.
• The Strait of Hormuz came under threat — a key route for global oil. More than 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it, so even a partial disruption immediately pushes prices higher.
• The problems moved from expectations to real restrictions. Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia began cutting production because exporting oil became more difficult, while storage capacity is limited.
• The market did not believe that increased OPEC+ production would quickly calm the situation. The announced increase of 206 thousand barrels per day looked too small compared to the potential loss of much larger volumes.
• Major banks and analysts started raising oil forecasts. Goldman Sachs warned that #BRENT could rise above $100 if disruptions through Hormuz are not resolved quickly, which further fueled buying.

After the sharp surge, #BRENT corrected toward the $90 per barrel level, as the market partially removed the maximum risk premium from prices. Investors are no longer pricing in the most severe supply disruption scenario, but tensions in the Middle East still prevent oil from returning to previous levels.

FreshForex analysts believe that the pullback from the highs does not mean the upside potential is exhausted. The market continues to closely monitor developments in the region, and any new supply disruption or escalation could quickly push #BRENT higher again. Oil is now moving not on panic, but on a more measured assessment of risks.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 11, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD — Consumer Price Index / Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy)

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1630 on Wednesday, while the dollar remains supported amid elevated uncertainty and rising energy prices. For the euro area, higher oil prices and transportation costs increase the risk of faster inflation against a backdrop of weaker domestic demand, so investors are assessing Europe’s economic outlook more cautiously and more often choose the dollar as a more liquid safe-haven asset.

Today’s focus is US inflation data. If price growth comes in above expectations, markets may price in high borrowing costs in the US for longer, which increases the appeal of US bonds and supports the dollar. Demand for safe-haven instruments remains an additional factor: during periods of geopolitical risk, the dollar typically outperforms the currencies of energy-importing economies.

From the European side, the ECB may keep interest rates unchanged for longer due to the energy component of inflation; however, for the market the balance between inflation and growth is more important. Persistently expensive energy worsens conditions for industry and consumption, thereby limiting the euro’s upside potential. The base scenario for today is dollar strength and pressure on EUR/USD.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1625, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1530

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