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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 06, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

06.03 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding near 157.50 and maintains an upward bias, as the dollar continues to receive support from safe-haven demand. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and this is particularly unfavorable for Japan, which remains a major energy importer. At the same time, the market has become more cautious in assessing the scale of future US rate cuts, which also works in favor of the dollar.

There is also a limiting factor for the pair, and it is related to Japan. According to economist surveys, the market expects a further rate increase by the Bank of Japan by the end of June, while the central bank leadership has indicated that the March and April meetings will be important for assessing inflation and wage data. This supports the yen and limits the speed of USD/JPY growth, but for now it does not change the overall balance of forces.

As a result, the market remains caught between two themes: expectations of a firmer stance from the Bank of Japan and the current advantage of the dollar amid high oil prices and increased investor caution. For now, the second theme looks stronger. If external tensions do not ease, the base-case scenario for today remains a moderate move higher in USD/JPY, with buying positions taking priority from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.50, SL 157.20, TP 158.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 13 March 2026​

XAUUSD: 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00

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Gold enters the week near $5,100 per ounce as investors seek safety amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. Additional support comes from central bank buying and strong demand for the metal across Asia.

This week, attention will shift to U.S. inflation data and regulators’ response to higher energy costs. If tensions persist, demand for gold may strengthen; if risks ease and the dollar firms, pullbacks are possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00



#SP500: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460




The S&P 500 starts the week near 6,700 under pressure: the surge in oil raises corporate costs and fuels inflation concerns. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious toward risk assets and increasingly prefer currencies and bonds.

Next, the market will watch the release of U.S. inflation data and officials’ comments on the impact of expensive energy. If expectations for higher rates become entrenched, the index may continue to decline even alongside solid corporate results.

Trade recommendation: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460



#BRENT: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50




Brent is holding around $102.35 per barrel after extreme swings as the market prices in supply disruption risks linked to the war and threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, measures to release part of strategic reserves are being discussed, which is limiting the upside.

In the coming days, the tone will be set by news on route security, OPEC+ decisions, and reports on the supply-demand balance. If logistics disruptions persist, prices may accelerate again; if tensions ease and reserves are released, a correction is possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50

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