Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for February 24. The Market Did Not React to New Tariffs

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M




The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite actively on Monday, yet the overall volatility remained moderately low. Thus, we can immediately acknowledge the obvious: the market does not seem overly concerned about the continuation of the trade war or the new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. The first trading day of the week started, as usual, with a decline in the dollar. However, throughout the day, the American currency fully recovered, so, in essence, the dollar did not experience any negative consequences. Once again, we find ourselves in a situation where a negative fundamental background has no impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Over the past two weeks, one could even get used to this. However, we have gotten accustomed to calling things by their names. Currently, market movements are illogical. The market continues to react extremely selectively to fundamentals and macroeconomics; therefore, it is now best to make trading decisions based on technical analysis. On the hourly timeframe, the pair broke through the trendline yesterday but failed to overcome the resistance area at 1.1830-1.1837. It also could not hold above the Senkou Span B line. Thus, the downward trend remains, despite the breach of the trend line. In this case, the pair may resume its decline, aiming for 1.1750-1.1760. On the 5-minute timeframe, two decent trading signals were generated on Monday. Initially, the price bounced off the 1.1830-1.1837 area, then breached the Kijun-sen line. However, the pair was unable to reach the target area of 1.1750-1.1760 and returned to the critical line by the end of the day. Therefore, traders could have achieved a profit of about 20 pips from the short position.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated February 17. As seen in the weekly timeframe illustration, the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish." Since Trump took office as President of the United States for the second time, the dollar has only been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but the current developments in the world suggest this outcome. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro; however, there are plenty of factors that would weaken the dollar. The global downward trend persists, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 18 years? In the last three years, a new upward trend has been forming, and the breach of the global descending trend line has occurred. Thus, the path further upward is open. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 7,100, and the number of shorts decreased by 1,300. Consequently, the net position decreased by 5,800 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains below the Ichimoku indicator lines, hindering its ability to move upward. The pair exited the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 at the beginning of the year, in which it had spent seven months, so the global upward trend has officially resumed. To technically restore the upward trend on the hourly timeframe, the price needs to consolidate above the Senkou Span B line and above the trend line. For February 24, we identify the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, 1.2051, 1.2095, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1847) and Kijun-sen (1.1800). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Tuesday, the U.S. weekly ADP report on the labor market is scheduled for publication. We consider this report secondary and do not expect any market reaction. It is unlikely that the trend will change upward today. Trading Recommendations: On Tuesday, traders may consider selling with a target of 1.1750-1.1760 in case of another bounce from the 1.1830-1.1837 area. Long positions might be considered with a target of 1.1830-1.1837 if the price bounces from the 1.1750-1.1760 area.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4aNEnMW

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. February 25. Is There Anyone in the Market?



The EUR/USD currency pair has again traded as if there has been absolutely no news in recent days. To recap (though there may be no particular need), the U.S. Supreme Court annulled all of Trump's global tariffs, to which Trump responded by imposing new tariffs of 10% on "everyone," threatening to raise them to 15% soon. Looking at the charts and volatility diagram, one gets the impression that there have been no significant updates for the past two weeks. During this time, the dollar has slowly climbed. This growth is not strong enough to be taken seriously or respected; meanwhile, it is a rise in the dollar when its decline would make much more sense. So, we can begin to speculate why the market is refusing to sell the American currency. The first thought that comes to mind is a potential U.S. invasion of Iran. Rumor has it that the next round of largely formal negotiations between Tehran and Washington is scheduled for this week, and if there is no breakthrough, Trump will be ready to give the order to commence military operations. We call the negotiations "formal" because no one has managed to reach an agreement with Iran over the last 50 years. For the past 50 years, the country has lived like a powder keg. Military actions flare up with renewed vigor and then quiet down. The country is effectively on the verge of economic collapse, with the value of the Iranian rial plummeting to zero. Yet none of this has persuaded Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. Thus, we believe that the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Trump is zero. There will be military conflict; the only question is how significant it will be. At the same time, one of the few reasons for the U.S. dollar's growth in recent weeks is, in fact, the market's expectation of this very conflict. Accordingly, this factor has likely already been priced in or is close to being so. However, there are no supporting factors for the dollar. There are, on the other hand, plenty of factors weighing down on it that the market has been rigorously ignoring lately, starting from the disappointing GDP report, the quite contradictory Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), falling inflation, and ending with Trump's actual refusal to comply with the Supreme Court's ruling and a new escalation of the trade war, which has already led to a freeze in the ratification of agreements with India and the European Union. We do not believe the market is obligated to reverse at times we deem necessary, or at any specific period. However, we believe the dollar's decline in 2026 is inevitable. The higher the dollar rises now, the more it will fall later. The lower the EUR/USD pair descends, the greater the likelihood that this movement will end very soon. However, as the market has largely ignored the vast majority of macroeconomic and fundamental events over the last two weeks, we advise traders not to overlook the technical picture. Expecting a new rise in the pair is best done after breaking the trends on the hourly and four-hour timeframes.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of February 25 is 60 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1728 and 1.1848 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression points upward, indicating further growth for the euro. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1597 S3 – 1.1475 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1841 R2 – 1.1963 R3 – 1.2085 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues to correct within the upward trend. The global fundamental background remains extremely negative for the dollar. The pair has spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar has no fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, all the dollar can hope for is a sideways move or corrections. When the price is positioned below the moving average, one may consider small shorts with targets at 1.1728 and 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4qUpkH2