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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 16, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The euro against the dollar is starting the week without a clear impulse, and the key driver is a reassessment of rate expectations in the United States. The market is factoring in both the recent labor-market data and personnel news around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, which helps keep demand for the dollar steady and increases the pair’s sensitivity to any surprises in US releases.

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In the Eurozone, the situation is calmer: the European Central Bank is holding a pause, while inflation is clearly below 2%, so investors are not rushing to price in higher euro yields. Improved risk sentiment across the region supports the currency, but without acceleration in growth and price pressures, it is harder for the euro to strengthen sustainably against the dollar.

For today, the base scenario is moderate pressure on EURUSD as demand for the dollar returns on the back of US headlines and data. In that logic, selling from current levels looks preferable, with a protective stop and a target in the area of lower prices.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1875, SL 1.1900, TP 1.1800

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT |20 February 2026


XAUUSD: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00​


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Gold starts the week near $5,000 per ounce. The market is supported by expectations of lower US interest rates after softer inflation data, as well as steady demand from major buyers, including central banks and China.

Limiting factors include a potential rebound in the US dollar and profit-taking after sharp moves. Still, if global political uncertainty persists and US Treasury yields ease further, demand for gold may remain firm.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00



​
#SP500: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930​




The #SP500 is holding near 6,836 points. Expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve later in 2026 are reducing rate pressure and supporting demand for equities. Investors are watching US macro releases and major corporate earnings, which are likely to set the tone for the week.

Risks include weaker consumption data or unexpected signals from the Fed, which could raise investor caution and trigger short-term selling. The baseline backdrop remains supportive if yields continue to decline and earnings confirm resilient profit growth.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930



​ ​
#BRENT: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40​




Brent crude starts the week around $67.8 per barrel. The market is weighing US–Iran talks and the possibility of higher supply, alongside fresh assessments pointing to slower global demand growth. These factors are limiting the upside.

Additional pressure comes from expectations that OPEC+ may resume increasing output and from US inventory data. Geopolitical headlines can still cause brief spikes, but the base case for the week is a moderate decline unless new supply disruptions emerge.

Trading recommendation: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Reminder: Activate SWAP50 before the end of February



Hello,

This is a reminder that you can reduce your swap costs with the SWAP50 promo code.

Please note an important detail:

HURRY UP! Compensation is calculated from the date of activation (deposit + providing the promo code via live chat with Support) until the end of February — not for the full month.

The earlier you activate, the more you can receive back.

Calculation example:

If your negative swap for the period from February 16 to February 28 totals –$143.41, +$71.71 will be credited to your BALANCE.

How to participate:

1. Deposit $500 or more in February.
2. Activate the SWAP50 promo code via live chat with Support.
3. Trade as usual — 50% of the negative swap will be credited back to your balance on all accounts.

The offer is valid until the end of February. Do not delay activation.

Compensation will not be credited if, after activating the promo code and up to and including February 28, 2026, a withdrawal request is submitted in the Client Area.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for February 17, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4903.90-5014.60, TP1-5125.40, TP2-5537.10

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 5050.00–5100.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the weakness of buyers.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 5010.00-5030.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 11.02.2026.

The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 5014.60.

The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 4903.90.

Intraday targets: renewal of highs from 11.02.2026–5125.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower limit of SNKZ-5537.10.



Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4903.90–5014.60, Take Profit 1–5125.40, Take Profit 2–5537.10.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 18, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

18.02 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding around 153.5, but fundamental factors in favor of the yen have strengthened after the release of strong Japanese export data: external demand supported trade performance, increasing interest in the Japanese currency. At the time of writing, the pair is fluctuating in the 153.1–153.7 area, while the market is assessing how durable this macro support will be.

Stronger exports and improvement in selected business-confidence indicators increase the probability that the Bank of Japan will continue a cautious normalization of monetary conditions. Even without abrupt moves, the prospect of a gradual shift toward higher rates supports the yen’s appeal and can cap USD/JPY, especially if expectations for rate cuts in the US intensify again.

Another key driver today is the Fed meeting minutes. If the market sees grounds in the text for earlier policy easing in the US, the dollar may weaken while the yen strengthens. Overall, the combination of solid Japanese external trade data and heightened focus on Fed signals creates conditions for USD/JPY to drift lower in the coming sessions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 153.50, SL 154.00, TP 152.00

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for February 19, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 24657.4-24934.9, TP1-24379.9, TP2-23731.2

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Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 25500.0–25750.0. At the moment, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum concentration of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 24710.0–24760.0. Currently, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the weakness of sellers.

The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 17.02.2026.

The quote for the lower border of zone 1/4 is 24657.4.

The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 24934.9.

Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 17.02.2026–24379.9.

Medium-term targets: test of the upper limit of the ZNKZ – 23731.2.



Investment recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 24657.4-24934.9, Take Profit 1-24379.9, Take Profit 2-23731.2.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Top 5 indices of 2026: Where is the main action right now?


Today’s review focuses on the index market. Since the beginning of 2026, our clients have most actively traded #NQ100, #DAX30, #SP500, #DJI30, and #NIKKEI — and these instruments have recorded the highest trading volumes.

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Outlook for the coming months:

1. #NQ100 — driven by major technology companies → the index may rise on strong earnings and forecasts, and decline if economic or rate expectations deteriorate.
2. #SP500 — reflects the overall condition of the U.S. market → potential support comes from a stable economy and solid corporate performance, while increased uncertainty may create downside pressure.
3. #DJI30 — includes the most prominent large-cap U.S. companies → movements tend to be smoother, with key drivers being economic data and business activity news.
4. #DAX30 — depends on the state of the European economy and export-oriented sectors → growth is likely with improving demand and stable energy prices, while weak European data may weigh on the index.
5. #NIKKEI — highly sensitive to the yen exchange rate and news from Japanese corporations → the index gains support with a stable yen and strong earnings, while sharp currency fluctuations may intensify negative sentiment.


FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three main factors: monetary policy decisions of major central banks, the quality of corporate earnings reports, and the overall level of global tension. Even under a positive scenario, it is essential to manage risk in advance, as sharp moves most often occur during news releases.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

20.02 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is holding around 1.344–1.347, but fundamentally the pound looks weaker than the dollar. The main reason is expectations that the Bank of England may continue easing credit conditions if inflation and the labor market keep cooling. For the currency, this means lower appeal of UK assets and more cautious demand for the pound.

At the same time, the dollar is supported by expectations that the Fed will act carefully and will not hurry to change rates. In such conditions, demand for the dollar typically strengthens, especially if investors see risks to the global economy or simply reduce exposure to riskier positions. As a result, the pound struggles to maintain gains even when local news is positive.

In the coming months, the pair’s direction will depend on two things: how convincingly inflation cools in the UK and how quickly the market starts pricing US rate cuts again. For now, the balance still favors the dollar, and GBP/USD remains prone to moving lower, especially on days of key macro releases and central-bank communication.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3445, SL 1.3475, TP 1.3355

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 23, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY starts the week near 154.5, while the yen is getting support as attention to potential official actions increases: market participants are again discussing Tokyo’s readiness to respond to excessive exchange-rate swings, and reports of US “rate checks” have made the pair more sensitive to headlines.


Fundamentally, the balance is shifting due to expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue raising rates as early as spring if the yen weakens again and feeds into import inflation. Even cautious comments along these lines narrow the yield gap between Japan and the US and increase the appeal of the Japanese currency.

On the dollar side, political and trade risks add pressure: the US court ruling on tariffs and subsequent statements about new duties raise uncertainty for global trade and can worsen investor sentiment. At the same time, inflation in the US remains elevated, but slower economic growth forces the market to assess the rate outlook more carefully. Taken together, this creates conditions for USD/JPY to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 154.50, SL 154.70, TP 153.60

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 27 February 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 5158.29, SL 5148.00, TP 5249.00

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Gold starts the week supported by stronger demand for safe-haven assets: uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs and a weaker dollar are keeping prices near $5,160 per ounce.

This week’s focus is on the Fed’s rate signals, fresh U.S. data, and how Washington’s trade decisions develop. Any rise in geopolitical tensions could boost demand, but if inflation accelerates, interest in gold may cool temporarily.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5158.29, SL 5148.00, TP 5249.00

#SP500: SELL 6874, SL 6885, TP 6755



S&P 500 futures enter the week under pressure as the market reassesses the impact of new U.S. import tariffs and waits for clearer direction on trade policy following the Supreme Court decision.

Key drivers in the coming days are major corporate earnings and U.S. demand-related macro data, which will show whether the economy can absorb higher costs. If uncertainty lingers, investors may reduce risk even if corporate profits remain strong.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6874, SL 6885, TP 6755

#BRENT: SELL 70.89, SL 71.30, TP 67.26



Brent is holding around $71 per barrel, but the week starts in “cautious” mode: renewed U.S.–Iran talks are easing supply-disruption fears, while tariff headlines are weighing on expectations for global demand.

Supply conditions remain tight due to sanctions and regional risks, yet banks are increasingly pointing to a potential surplus in 2026 and a likely OPEC+ output increase in the second quarter. That could limit upside unless new shocks emerge.

Trading recommendation: SELL 70.89, SL 71.30, TP 67.26

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