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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 16, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The euro against the dollar is starting the week without a clear impulse, and the key driver is a reassessment of rate expectations in the United States. The market is factoring in both the recent labor-market data and personnel news around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, which helps keep demand for the dollar steady and increases the pair’s sensitivity to any surprises in US releases.

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In the Eurozone, the situation is calmer: the European Central Bank is holding a pause, while inflation is clearly below 2%, so investors are not rushing to price in higher euro yields. Improved risk sentiment across the region supports the currency, but without acceleration in growth and price pressures, it is harder for the euro to strengthen sustainably against the dollar.

For today, the base scenario is moderate pressure on EURUSD as demand for the dollar returns on the back of US headlines and data. In that logic, selling from current levels looks preferable, with a protective stop and a target in the area of lower prices.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1875, SL 1.1900, TP 1.1800

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT |20 February 2026


XAUUSD: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00​


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Gold starts the week near $5,000 per ounce. The market is supported by expectations of lower US interest rates after softer inflation data, as well as steady demand from major buyers, including central banks and China.

Limiting factors include a potential rebound in the US dollar and profit-taking after sharp moves. Still, if global political uncertainty persists and US Treasury yields ease further, demand for gold may remain firm.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00



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#SP500: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930​




The #SP500 is holding near 6,836 points. Expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve later in 2026 are reducing rate pressure and supporting demand for equities. Investors are watching US macro releases and major corporate earnings, which are likely to set the tone for the week.

Risks include weaker consumption data or unexpected signals from the Fed, which could raise investor caution and trigger short-term selling. The baseline backdrop remains supportive if yields continue to decline and earnings confirm resilient profit growth.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930



​ ​
#BRENT: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40​




Brent crude starts the week around $67.8 per barrel. The market is weighing US–Iran talks and the possibility of higher supply, alongside fresh assessments pointing to slower global demand growth. These factors are limiting the upside.

Additional pressure comes from expectations that OPEC+ may resume increasing output and from US inventory data. Geopolitical headlines can still cause brief spikes, but the base case for the week is a moderate decline unless new supply disruptions emerge.

Trading recommendation: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Reminder: Activate SWAP50 before the end of February



Hello,

This is a reminder that you can reduce your swap costs with the SWAP50 promo code.

Please note an important detail:

HURRY UP! Compensation is calculated from the date of activation (deposit + providing the promo code via live chat with Support) until the end of February — not for the full month.

The earlier you activate, the more you can receive back.

Calculation example:

If your negative swap for the period from February 16 to February 28 totals –$143.41, +$71.71 will be credited to your BALANCE.

How to participate:

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2. Activate the SWAP50 promo code via live chat with Support.
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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for February 17, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4903.90-5014.60, TP1-5125.40, TP2-5537.10

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 5050.00–5100.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the weakness of buyers.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 5010.00-5030.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 11.02.2026.

The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 5014.60.

The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 4903.90.

Intraday targets: renewal of highs from 11.02.2026–5125.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower limit of SNKZ-5537.10.



Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4903.90–5014.60, Take Profit 1–5125.40, Take Profit 2–5537.10.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 18, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

18.02 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding around 153.5, but fundamental factors in favor of the yen have strengthened after the release of strong Japanese export data: external demand supported trade performance, increasing interest in the Japanese currency. At the time of writing, the pair is fluctuating in the 153.1–153.7 area, while the market is assessing how durable this macro support will be.

Stronger exports and improvement in selected business-confidence indicators increase the probability that the Bank of Japan will continue a cautious normalization of monetary conditions. Even without abrupt moves, the prospect of a gradual shift toward higher rates supports the yen’s appeal and can cap USD/JPY, especially if expectations for rate cuts in the US intensify again.

Another key driver today is the Fed meeting minutes. If the market sees grounds in the text for earlier policy easing in the US, the dollar may weaken while the yen strengthens. Overall, the combination of solid Japanese external trade data and heightened focus on Fed signals creates conditions for USD/JPY to drift lower in the coming sessions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 153.50, SL 154.00, TP 152.00

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for February 19, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 24657.4-24934.9, TP1-24379.9, TP2-23731.2

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Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 25500.0–25750.0. At the moment, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum concentration of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 24710.0–24760.0. Currently, investment transactions on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the weakness of sellers.

The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 17.02.2026.

The quote for the lower border of zone 1/4 is 24657.4.

The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 24934.9.

Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 17.02.2026–24379.9.

Medium-term targets: test of the upper limit of the ZNKZ – 23731.2.



Investment recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 24657.4-24934.9, Take Profit 1-24379.9, Take Profit 2-23731.2.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Top 5 indices of 2026: Where is the main action right now?


Today’s review focuses on the index market. Since the beginning of 2026, our clients have most actively traded #NQ100, #DAX30, #SP500, #DJI30, and #NIKKEI — and these instruments have recorded the highest trading volumes.

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Outlook for the coming months:

1. #NQ100 — driven by major technology companies → the index may rise on strong earnings and forecasts, and decline if economic or rate expectations deteriorate.
2. #SP500 — reflects the overall condition of the U.S. market → potential support comes from a stable economy and solid corporate performance, while increased uncertainty may create downside pressure.
3. #DJI30 — includes the most prominent large-cap U.S. companies → movements tend to be smoother, with key drivers being economic data and business activity news.
4. #DAX30 — depends on the state of the European economy and export-oriented sectors → growth is likely with improving demand and stable energy prices, while weak European data may weigh on the index.
5. #NIKKEI — highly sensitive to the yen exchange rate and news from Japanese corporations → the index gains support with a stable yen and strong earnings, while sharp currency fluctuations may intensify negative sentiment.


FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three main factors: monetary policy decisions of major central banks, the quality of corporate earnings reports, and the overall level of global tension. Even under a positive scenario, it is essential to manage risk in advance, as sharp moves most often occur during news releases.

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