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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Review. February 10. Euro Aims for Levels 21-22



The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly began to rise on Monday. Although, upon closer inspection, nothing was surprising about this growth. Many traders frequently make the same mistake. They believe that market movements occur only under the influence of specific events, such as macroeconomic or fundamental factors. However, this is not the case at all. The market operates in much more complex ways. For instance, last week we saw practically no movement. Before that, there was a weekly rise in the dollar, which had little basis. However, technically, we first saw a 500-pip rise, followed by a reasonable correction, a brief pause, and then the resumption of the primary trend, which is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. Therefore, from our perspective, the European currency is once again aiming for the 21 level. Are there grounds for this? A million. The ongoing and constantly escalating trade war, Trump's military and geopolitical ambitions, the scandal related to the "Epstein case," the persistent pressure from Trump on Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, and the entire Federal Reserve, and the weakness of the labor market all contribute to this. The market simply cannot find reasons to buy the dollar. It has even ceased to trust macroeconomic data. Traders are no longer impressed by economic growth rates of 4.4% or strong readings in business activity indices. Trump has turned half the world against him, including many foreign investors. Protests against the president are occurring in America with alarming regularity, and his political rating has plummeted to its lowest levels. Many political experts predict that the Republican Party will lose one or both chambers of Congress by November. Naturally, the strengthening of the European currency is not related to Christine Lagarde's morning speech or the European Central Bank's policies in general. Lagarde stated just last week that the central bank does not intend to change interest rates based on inflation at 1.7%, but warned that, due to the high euro exchange rate, the consumer price index may slow further. If this happens, in which direction will the ECB be considering? Obviously, towards a "dovish" stance. Therefore, if we are destined to see a change in ECB rates in 2026, it will clearly be downward. Thus, one could say that "dovish" market expectations are slowly rising, but this is not reflected in the euro's exchange rate at all. The reason, as we have already mentioned, is one: Donald Trump and his brilliant policies. Many traders may wonder why the EUR/USD pair did not rise between August and January. However, we have answered this question many times. The market was flat for 7 months—a necessary part of any trend. We also stated that market makers would eventually finish forming their positions, that the trend would resume, and that the positions were clearly not short.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Review. February 11. One Battle After Another



The EUR/USD currency pair traded calmly on Tuesday. The new year has just begun, yet it has already brought the markets so many events that it would be enough for several months ahead. However, the flow of news shows no signs of drying up. Just the day before, it became known that the Chinese government had prohibited its banks from purchasing US Treasury bonds. As the saying goes, "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth." We have long stated that China is one of the few players on the world stage prepared to respond to Washington and Trump with equal force. You raise tariffs on our products? We will respond by restricting exports of rare earth metals or cease purchasing your Treasuries. China can hardly retaliate against the US in terms of trade. However, it can counter in other areas. Metaphorically speaking, both the US and China hold strong cards, but they are of different suits. As a result, the dollar failed to recover from the weekend and immediately fell by 100 pips. On Tuesday, it managed to avoid another collapse, but such a drop seems inevitable. Reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment will be published in the US today, and inflation data will follow on Friday. What would you bet on in the current circumstances? A strong labor market or another failure? Of course, individual reports could provide support for the dollar. We have mentioned many times that the irony is that the market assesses not the actual state of the labor market but the relationship of the actual report values to the forecast. In other words, the labor market doesn't need strong metrics for the dollar to rise; it just needs to show a value above the forecast. Thus, for the dollar to show growth today, Non-Farm Payrolls must exceed 70,000, and the unemployment rate must not exceed 4.4%. If these conditions are met, the American currency will strengthen. However, it is unlikely to be strong or long-lasting. While the market enjoys playing out the "expectation/reality" scenario, it still understands that even 80,000 new jobs is woefully insufficient for a country like the US. Furthermore, we should not forget that each Non-Farm Payroll report revises the estimates for previous months, and, as a rule, downwards. Therefore, the value for January may be relatively high, while the values for November and December may be revised downwards. On the daily timeframe, the technical picture remains clear. There are no signs of the completion of the global upward trend that began back in 2022 and intensified in 2025. Last week, the EUR/USD pair corrected lower after a sharp 500-pip rise. Now, we may be entering a new phase of the trend. The only concern is that the CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, warning of a potential downward correction. But this week's movements will depend on macroeconomic data rather than the CCI indicator. For now, the dollar is losing one battle after another.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days, as of February 11, is 63 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1837 and 1.1963 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression points upward, indicating further growth for the euro. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, warning of a possible pullback. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1963 R2 – 1.2085 R3 – 1.2207 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair is continuing a fairly strong correction within the upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains critically negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely that now is the time to resume the global trend from 2025. The dollar lacks a fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, all the dollar can hope for is a flat or a correction. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.1719 based purely on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085. Explanations of the Illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, it means the trend is strong at the moment. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will move over the next day, based on current volatility readings. The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates a potential trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on February 12. Non-Farm Payrolls Impressed, but the Dollar Didn't Move Far

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Wednesday in full accordance with the macroeconomic backdrop. Yesterday, important reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate were published in the US, and the market clearly did not expect the resulting figures. It turned out that 130,000 new jobs were created in January outside the agricultural sector, far more than experts had predicted. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%. Thus, both reports provided significant support for the American currency, but they did not particularly impress traders. To be frank, with such strong data, the dollar could have gained more than 100 pips and continued to rise, as the likelihood of a new rate cut from the Fed sharply diminished after the data release. At the moment, the American currency rose by approximately 85 pips, but over the next few hours, it lost almost "everything it had worked hard to gain." Thus, the strong labor market data effectively had no positive impact on the dollar. From a technical standpoint, the pair traded just below the area of 1.1907-1.1922 for several consecutive days, then bounced off it, fell to the Kijun-sen line and the area of 1.1830-1.1837, and bounced off again. Formally, the trend remains downward, as the price remains below the Senkou Span B line. However, the pair has also failed to break below this critical line. Therefore, we do not currently see any signs of a revival of the downward trend. The market has shown that it values the US labor market data, but this is not the main reason for the dollar's unpopularity over the past year. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed yesterday. Precisely at the time of the US reports release, the price bounced off the 1.1907-1.1922 area and then dropped sharply. Consequently, there was no opportunity to capitalize on this signal. However, traders could have successfully executed a long position from the bounce off the 1.1830-1.1837 area and the critical line. By the evening, this position was in a good profit.


COT Report:



The latest COT report is dated February 3. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish." Since Trump took office as President of the United States for the second time, only the dollar has fallen. We cannot state with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments worldwide suggest this is a possibility. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, while there are plenty of factors that would weaken the American dollar. The global downward trend remains intact, but how significant is it given the price's movement over the last 18 years? In the last three years, a new upward trend has been forming, and a breakout of the global descending trend line has occurred. Thus, the path further north is open. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 11,900, while the number of shorts decreased by 19,300. Consequently, the net position increased by another 31,200 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains below the Senkou Span B line, hindering its upward movement. The pair exited the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 at the beginning of the year, where it spent seven months, and thus the upward trend was officially resumed. For the technical restoration of the upward trend on the hourly timeframe, price consolidation above the Senkou Span B line is now required. For February 12, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, 1.2051, 1.2095, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1927) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1848). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Thursday, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone, while in the US, only minor reports on new home sales and unemployment claims will be released. These data are unlikely to impress the market or spur active trading. Trading Recommendations: On Thursday, traders may trade in the 1.1907-1.1922 or 1.1830-1.1837 ranges. New longs will become relevant with consolidation above 1.1907-1.1922 and the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.1971-1.1988. Short positions can be considered upon a bounce from the area of 1.1907-1.1927 with a target of 1.1848. Explanations of the Illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines. Extreme Levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals. Yellow Lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on COT Charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair. February 13. The World Rises Against Donald Trump




The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Thursday, maintaining an upward trend that is clearly visible from a kilometer away. On the penultimate trading day of the week, the British pound again leaned toward growth, as there are no grounds for a decline. The market continues to ignore almost all macroeconomic data, except for the most important American reports. But it will soon start ignoring those as well, because the "foolery" of constant revisions of previous months' values is beginning to annoy traders, and trust in the published figures is approaching zero. Yesterday, it became known that the British economy grew unrealistically by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. One can only ask: where did Andrew Bailey see "faster economic growth at the beginning of the new year"? The UK economy continues to grow at an average rate of 0.1-0.2% per quarter. A growth of 0.3% can be considered high. Industrial production has already decreased in volume as expected. This time, the losses amounted to 0.9%, while traders were expecting 0%. As mentioned, the British pound did not experience any distress over this. This is easy to explain: no matter how bad things are in the UK, they're worse in the United States. Donald Trump, with the help of Kevin Warsh, can drive the American economy to 15% growth per year, impose tariffs on the remaining half of the world, and go for a second round. This will not strengthen the consumer sector of the U.S. economy. The dollar currently has no trump cards—only twos and threes. The fact that it is not falling every month and sometimes even corrects itself can be seen as a gift from the market to a once-strong, stable currency. So to speak, "for past services." Trump continues to do everything possible to make investors flee without looking back from American securities, the U.S. dollar, and everything that says "Made in the USA." This week, it was announced that the Chinese government banned commercial banks and other financial institutions from buying U.S. Treasuries. Next up is Japan, which intends to sell $800 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. What did the White House leader want? For the whole world to stay silent and dance to Washington's tune? Many countries understand that they cannot defeat America in trade. But at every convenient opportunity, they will strike back from the shadows. Trump forces (through blackmail and threats) other countries to buy energy resources from the U.S., invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the American economy, and impose "draconian" taxes? Trading partners (if they can be called that; rather, they are opponents and rivals) will respond according to their capabilities: selling off U.S. Treasuries, reducing dollar reserves, expanding trade relations with other countries, and imposing various export restrictions. It is no coincidence that many experts are sounding the alarm over Trump's policies. The problems in the U.S. are now like the proverbial gopher. They may not be visible, but they are there.



The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 92 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Friday, February 13, we expect movement within a range limited by the levels of 1.3531 and 1.3715. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone on January 26, signaling the start of a correction that may already be complete. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3550 S2 – 1.3428 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3672 R2 – 1.3794 R3 – 1.3916 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD currency pair is on track to continue its 2025 upward trend, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the American currency to grow in 2026. Even its status as a "safe haven" no longer matters to traders. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant in the near future when the price is above the moving average. If the price is positioned below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.3550 on technical (correction) grounds. From time to time, the American currency shows corrections (in a global context), but for trend growth, it needs global positive factors. Explanations of the Illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, it means the trend is strong at the moment. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will move over the next day, based on current volatility readings. The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates a potential trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on February 16. Euro Stuck in Anticipation of Events

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Thursday or Friday. Both days passed with minimal volatility just above the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, it is currently even difficult to say what kind of trend has formed in the market. By all indications on the higher timeframes, it is upward. However, on the hourly timeframe, the price is below the Senkou Span B line, above the critical line, not in a sideways channel, without a trend line. It seems that a spring is compressing in the market, which will "shoot" in the near future. And the "shot" may not please many traders. Last week, including Friday, the market virtually ignored all the most important events. The Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate elicited a rather ambiguous reaction, while the consumer price index was completely ignored. The market traded only on Monday after news of the ban on Chinese banks investing in U.S. government securities became known. On that day, the dollar lost about 100 pips. Since the market is currently responding almost not at all to macroeconomic events, and there are no significant fundamental events, we can only carefully monitor the technical changes. We believe that, in the near future, trading can be done either in the area of 1.1830-1.1848 (together with the Kijun-sen line) or in the area of 1.1907-1.1927 (together with the Senkou Span B line). This results in a sideways channel of 1.1830-1.1927. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Friday. The price bounced off the Kijun-sen line twice, each time offering traders an opportunity to open long positions. In both cases, the price rose about 20-25 pips. Thus, there could be no losses from these trades, but making a profit was rather problematic.

COT Report



The last COT report is dated February 10. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish." Since Trump took office as President of the USA for the second time, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue with a probability of 100%, but current developments worldwide hint at this possibility. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, but there are sufficient factors for the decline of the American dollar. The global downward trend is still in place, but what matters now is where the price has moved in the last 18 years. In the last three years, a new upward trend has formed, and a breakout of the global downward trend line has occurred. Thus, the path further upward is clear. The indicator's red and blue lines continue to indicate the preservation of the "bullish" trend. Over the past reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 16,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 500. Accordingly, the net position rose by another 16,900 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains below the Senkou Span B line, hindering its upward advance. The pair exited the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 at the beginning of the year, where it spent seven months, officially resuming the upward trend. To technically restore the upward trend on the hourly timeframe, the price must now consolidate above the Senkou Span B line. In the near future, trading may take place between the levels of 1.1830 and 1.1927. For February 16, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, 1.2051, 1.2095, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1927) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1848). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set the Stop Loss order to break-even if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Monday, a report on industrial production is scheduled for publication in the European Union, while the U.S. event calendar is empty. Most likely, we are in for another "boring Monday" with movements within the sideways channel of 1.1830-1.1927. Trading Recommendations: On Monday, traders may trade from the area of 1.1907-1.1927 or from the area of 1.1830-1.1848. New longs will become relevant if the price consolidates above 1.1907-1.1927 with a target of 1.1971-1.1988. Short positions can be considered upon a bounce from the area of 1.1907-1.1927 with a target of 1.1848. Explanations for Illustrations: Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines. Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals. Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. February 17. The Best President in History




The EUR/USD currency pair was virtually immobilized for most of Monday. The volatility was even lower than on Thursday or Friday, when the euro moved by 37 pips daily. As we warned, a "boring Monday" was expected. The market is currently in a state very far from reality. Traders are uncertain about whether to rid themselves of the troubled dollar or to settle for its 15% devaluation against the euro in 2025. We support the first option, as Donald Trump's policies continue to plunge the U.S. not into a "golden age," but into a "dark age." Last week, the market ignored the NonFarm Payroll and unemployment data, crucial reports that affect the fate of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. Are there substantial reasons to believe the market ignored them justifiably? No, there are none. The fact is, with the unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll reports, the U.S. dollar... appreciated. Not significantly, but it appreciated. This means the market paid attention to the relatively positive January report while ignoring the data revision for 2026. We will not ignore the data for 2026 and will break it down in detail. Thus, four out of twelve months in 2026 reported negative Non-Farm Payrolls. For comparison, in 2020 (the pandemic year), there were three such months. Over the last 10 years (excluding the pandemic year and Trump's first year in the second term), the Non-Farm Payrolls never dropped below zero. What conclusion can be drawn? Donald Trump is indeed the best president in U.S. history. He managed to achieve a stable reduction in jobs through immigration policy and the contraction of the real economy sector. The most interesting part is that official reports indicate strong growth in the U.S. economy. It turns out that Americans are losing jobs, cannot find work, and AI is beginning to displace people from various fields of production, yet the economy is growing like yeast. One must wonder, for whom does America exist? For a computer program or for people, the vast majority of whom are migrants in one way or another? Returning to the Non-Farm Payroll report, it is noted that, on average, 19,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector each month in 2026. In comparison, in the last year of Joe Biden's presidency, an average of 121,000 jobs were created monthly. This also isn't very much. The U.S. unemployment rate has been rising for 3-4 years; ,the Non-Farm Payrolls figure has also been declining in the long term. However, 19,000 a month is paltry, essentially nothing. Thus, we can only note the fact that vital data were ignored last week and the completely unjustified developments in the forex market regarding the dollar. This fact should be taken into account in trading.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of February 17 is 48 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1803 and 1.1899 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating further euro appreciation. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential pullback. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1963 R2 – 1.2085 R3 – 1.2207 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within an upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial for the market and is extremely negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar has no fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, the dollar can only hope for a flat or a correction. When the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Long positions remain relevant above the moving average line with targets of 1.1963 and 1.2085. Explanations for Illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong current trend; The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted; Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections; Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators; The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. February 18. Mark Carney Forms an Alliance Against Trump and the U.S.



The EUR/USD pair continued to trade on Tuesday "as if at a wake." There were no significant macroeconomic reports planned for the day, and the fundamental events were characterized as "interesting news," but nothing more. Nevertheless, this "interesting news" could have far-reaching consequences, especially for the U.S. The world is beginning to cooperate against Donald Trump. The level of hatred for the American president is soaring, both within the U.S. and outside its borders. This is hardly surprising, as Trump continues to use trade tariffs to push his interests worldwide. Thus, many countries find it difficult to trade fairly with America. The leader in the White House has somehow decided that America's trade balance with every country in the world should be at least zero and at most positive for the U.S. Why this is so is a question that few can answer. It is clear that such a scenario would be extremely beneficial for the U.S., which has been importing significantly more goods than it exports for decades. However, what is the fault of other countries? Canadian leader Mark Carney, whose country has once again come under a barrage of threats from Donald Trump and tariffs that the U.S. Congress has managed to block with great difficulty, has decided that the time has come to cooperate against America and Trump personally. Currently, Canada and its trading partners, including the Eurozone, are working on forming a "bridge" between the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, Europe, and Canada, which will create favorable trading conditions for 1.5 billion people. Previously, Carney had repeatedly urged countries around the world to stand up against the protectionist policies of the American leader. As we can see, about a year after the first tariffs, world leaders have finally concluded that they should not appease the "cabal" of trade agreements but rather oppose them. There are various ways to resist this. Countries can impose retaliatory sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions, as China has done. They can unite with other "sanctioned" countries to bypass America. The Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (CPTPP) includes 12 countries: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and Canada. This year, negotiations began with the Eurozone, which has also been affected by American tariffs, to create new supply chains that will connect approximately 40 countries at opposite ends of the globe. Furthermore, reports indicate that the Eurozone is interested in creating a new economic bloc with reduced or even eliminated trade tariffs. As already stated at the beginning of the article, the whole world is beginning to stand up to the U.S. Now, we can expect new angry speeches from White House representatives, new threats, ultimatums, and new tariffs for "disobedience." Let us recall that Trump previously threatened Ottawa with increased trade tariffs if it continued to expand trade cooperation with China. Such are the realities in 2026. Washington considers itself entitled to dictate who can trade with whom.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of February 18 is 49 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1790 and 1.1888 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating further euro appreciation. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought territory, signaling a potential pullback. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1963 R2 – 1.2085 R3 – 1.2207 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within an upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial to the market and is extremely negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar has no fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, the dollar can only hope for a flat or corrections. When the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with targets of 1.1790 and 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Long positions remain relevant above the moving average line with targets of 1.1963 and 1.2085. Explanations for Illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong current trend; The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted; Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections; Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators; The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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