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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for Jule 04, 2025 GBPUSD


Events to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Construction PMI

GBPUSD:



On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuated near the lower limit of the short-term decline, which was facilitated by pressure from sellers, causing the US dollar to fall after US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data came in higher than expected. Markets had expected results below forecasts after preliminary ADP employment data for the week showed a sharp decline in private sector jobs, but a sharp increase in public sector education jobs offset the decline in private sector employment.

The UK government is struggling with an uneven economic downturn, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trying to maintain control of the situation. The Prime Minister has been criticised for failing to implement the sharp cuts in social benefits that were a key part of his election manifesto, as well as for not abandoning tax increases, which has angered both the markets and his political supporters in the UK.

Strong net employment growth in the US, reflected in the NFP data, also undermined hopes for a rate cut in the broader market. The June employment results dispelled any market expectations of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting at the end of the month, and the likelihood of three rate cuts before the end of the year was also called into question.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3660, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3560

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for Jule 07, 2025 USDJPY


USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) is falling against the US dollar at the start of the new week following the release of weak domestic data. Real wages in Japan fell for the fifth consecutive month in May, with the rate of decline being the fastest in nearly two years amid ongoing inflationary pressure. Added to this are looming US tariffs on Japanese exports, which could reduce corporate profits and potentially undermine future wage growth. This prospect could complicate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalisation schedule and hinder the yen's appreciation.

Meanwhile, Israel's strikes on three Yemeni ports on Monday morning maintain geopolitical risks and should have a positive impact on the yen's status as a relatively safe currency. In addition, growing recognition that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again may deter bears from aggressively betting on a decline in the yen. On the contrary, bulls on the US dollar (USD) remain on the sidelines amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its cycle of rate cuts in the near future. This, in turn, should help limit the growth of the USD/JPY pair amid the lack of significant macroeconomic data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 144.80, SL 144.60, TP 145.80

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 08.07.2025 #NQ100



The index appears to be frozen, awaiting some significant market catalyst. Due to extremely low volatility, nothing has changed in the technical picture. The upward impulse is still presumed to be complete or nearly complete. Therefore, a decline is expected soon — and as is often the case with this index, it could be sharp and significant. This creates a promising opportunity to enter short positions. Selling can be initiated at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 22700, SL 22850, TP 21400.

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