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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 25, 2025 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET.USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech

17:30 EET.USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

GBPUSD:




GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third session in a row, trading around 1.3620 on Wednesday during Asian hours. The pair is hovering around 1.3648, the highest level since February 2022, which was recorded on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair is supported by increased risk appetite amid easing tensions in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel came into effect on Tuesday, raising hopes for an end to the 12-day conflict. However, caution remains due to uncertainty about the durability of the ceasefire. Traders are likely to focus their attention on the possible resumption of negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and the fate of its enriched uranium.

During his testimony before the Congressional Budget Committee on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell spoke in favour of postponing rate cuts, probably until the fourth quarter. Powell added, ‘When the time is right, expect rates to continue to decline.’ He also said that data indicates that at least some of the tariffs will hit consumers, and tariff inflation will begin to rise in June.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday morning that the central bank should wait to see how uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policy measures will affect the economy before adjusting interest rates. Schmid added that the stability of the economy gives us time to observe price and economic developments.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3620, SL 1.3600, TP 1.3710

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Surprising ups and downs in global indices

June brought contrasting moves across global stock markets: while the U.S. and Asia posted gains, Europe struggled under pressure. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel, political instability in the EU, and shifting rate expectations fueled volatility. In search of stability, investors turned to U.S. tech and exporters — pushing the S&P 500 (#SP500) and Nasdaq 100 (#NQ100) higher.
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Key market movers in June:

• #SP500 (+0.96%), Dow Jones (#DJI30) (+0.89%), #NQ100 (+0.94%) – buoyed by dovish Fed tone and Iran’s restrained response to U.S. strikes. #Tesla surged 8.2%, with #IBM also among top gainers.

• Hong Kong 50 (#HSI) (+3%) – lifted by strong retail data and hopes of new stimulus from China.

• Australia 200 (#ASX) (+1.25%) – boosted by RBA rate cut expectations and strong tech sector performance.

• France 40 (#CAC40) (–2.76%) – weighed down by political risks and weakness in luxury stocks.

• Europe 50 (#ESTX50) (–1.8%) – hurt by soft ECB tone and weaker business activity.

• DAX 30 (#DAX30) (–3%) – pressured by weak industrial data and fading Chinese demand.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to rise on solid macro data, a softer Fed stance, and strong earnings from major tech players. Analysts at FreshForex believe investor confidence in the U.S. recovery supports the ongoing bullish trend. Activate a 202% bonus drawdown buffer in support with promo code OIL202 on deposits from $202!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 26.06.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 22300, SL 22000, TP 23000



The NASDAQ index has not only fully recovered after the sharp decline that began at the end of January this year but has also set a new all-time high. The current rally has taken on an impulsive character. The previously assumed ending diagonal triangle in wave 5 no longer appears valid. Most likely, this segment is part of the corrective wave 4.

Currently, the final wave 5 of the upward impulse is actively developing. In the near future, this wave is expected to continue its formation, making it reasonable to consider long positions at current market prices. After the completion of wave 5, a corrective pullback is anticipated.

Investment idea: BUY 22300, SL 22000, TP 23000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 27, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index

17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair held positive momentum near 1.3735 during Asian trading on Friday.

Concerns over the Fed's future independence continue to undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he is considering selecting the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, which has spurred fresh controversy over U.S. rate cuts. Trump said the list of potential successors to Powell had shrunk to “three or four people”, without naming any finalists.

In addition, weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data also sent the dollar lower. The U.S. economy contracted faster than expected in the first three months of this year, falling 0.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was below the previous estimate and the market consensus of -0.2%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. At its June meeting, the UK central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, although three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3750, SL 1.3690, TP 1.3865

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 30, 2025 GBPUSD

USDJPY:



The USD/JPY pair is attracting some sellers towards 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) is weakening against the Japanese yen (JPY) amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.

The United States (US) and China are close to a deal on tariffs. However, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook.

In addition, traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected. Markets estimate the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at nearly 92.4%, up from 70% a week earlier.

On the data side, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in May, up from 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This value matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on interest rate hikes could put pressure on the yen and create a tailwind for the pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 143.50, SL 144.30, TP 142.40

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