Instaforex Analysis

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump Victory Echoes: S&P 500 Breaks 6,000 on Positive Economic Trends



Markets Riding: Trump, Fed Rates Fuel Optimism The S&P 500 briefly crossed 6,000 on Friday night, ending the week with its biggest gain of the year. Trump and his political outlook had a powerful impact on investor sentiment, raising hopes for favorable economic reforms. Economic impact of rate cuts Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve this week have added confidence to stock markets. The Fed's actions have increased the appetite for growth, which could not but be reflected in the performance of stock indices. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recorded their best weekly results since November 2023. Nasdaq, in turn, demonstrated its best week in two months, strengthening amid growing expectations for economic growth and higher corporate earnings. Political changes: what does a Republican victory promise? One of the key factors influencing stock markets has become the political situation in the United States. Donald Trump's victory in the election and the possible control of the Republican Party over the Senate and the House of Representatives create the preconditions for stabilization of the political situation. Many believe that this will facilitate the implementation of ambitious plans for tax cuts and deregulation, which in turn stimulates the growth of corporate profits and investment. Trump and Tax Reform Corporate tax cuts and deregulation were the main drivers of the Nasdaq's rally, with three straight days of record closings. As a result, the S&P 500 ended the week with its 50th record close this year, underscoring the strength of the current bullish trend. Mike Dixon, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said: "While the 6,000 mark is psychologically significant, given all the events of the week, I don't think it matters whether we close at 6,005 or 5,995. The market still put up an impressive gain." So, it's been a very positive week for stock indices, with major events like the election and the Fed decision continuing to impact financial markets, creating positive expectations for investors.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress. This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues. In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction. For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elections, Bitcoin, and Tesla's $1 Trillion Value: What Else is Happening in the Market?

Wall Street on High: Stock Market Hitting Records on Expectations of New Fiscal Policy Wall Street's major indices ended Monday's trading session at record highs, helped by stocks of companies expecting a positive effect from possible economic decisions by Republican President-elect Donald Trump. Tesla on the Rise: Market Cap Surpasses $1 Trillion Tesla (TSLA.O) shares soared 9%, pushing the company's market cap back above $1.1 trillion. Investors are betting on CEO Elon Musk's close ties to Trump, which they believe bodes well for the company. In addition, other stocks, whose owners are also hoping to benefit from Trump's return to the White House, played a significant role in the index's growth. Financials Drive Dow to New Highs The S&P 500 .SPSY gained 1.4%, helped by strong support from the financials sector, which in turn allowed the Dow to soar to an all-time high. Banks such as Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) and JPMorgan (JPM.N) contributed the most. Small Businesses Riding the Crest of Growth: Russell 2000 on High The Russell 2000 small-cap index .RUT posted a solid 1.5% gain, hitting its highest since November 2021. Traders believe that smaller companies will benefit significantly from Trump's proposed tax breaks and expected regulatory easing. Tech Bigs Slip Slightly The largest tech companies, including Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia), all posted declines of around 1%, slightly slowing the overall pace of growth. Amid these changes, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 4% since Trump's election on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq has gained nearly 5%, showing a general revival in the stock market ahead of new prospects.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2024

Although the counting of votes for the House of Representatives is not yet complete, there is no longer any doubt that the Republican Party has achieved a resounding victory, securing complete control of both the executive branch, through the White House, and the legislative branch, with a majority in both chambers of Congress. Unsurprisingly, the euro continued to lose ground, as one of the first decisions likely to be made could involve raising tariffs, primarily targeting European manufacturers. Moreover, the trend toward further euro weakening could be exacerbated by U.S. inflation data. Judging by forecasts, the pace of consumer price growth is expected to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.6%. If this forecast is confirmed, the Federal Reserve will likely pause in its trajectory of further monetary policy easing.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 14, 2024

The British pound broke through the target support level of 1.2708 yesterday and shows no signs of stopping. It appears to have sufficient bearish potential to reach the nearest target, 1.2612, and the next one, 1.2510.



Yesterday's U.S. inflation data revealed an increase in the CPI from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Market participants have raised the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its December and March meetings. However, as government bond yields showed little change by the end of the day after brief volatility, the pound continued its downward momentum.



No reversal elements are observed on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator's current rise reflects a discharge of tension, preparing for further decline. The Marlin signal line aims to test the lower boundary of the descending green channel.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2024

The recent U.S. inflation data suggest a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process, and Jerome Powell explicitly stated this. This comes alongside producer price data, which shows that growth accelerated from 1.9% to 2.4%. By year-end, discussions about a potential rate hike could resurface, as the data hint at the possibility of inflation rebounding. Additionally, industrial production decline in the Eurozone accelerated from -0.1% to -2.8%, resembling an outright collapse. However, the dollar failed to strengthen. The U.S. currency remained flat, partly due to its already massive overbought condition following its relentless and substantial rally since the presidential elections. More significantly, data on Chinese retail sales halted the dollar's rise, which showed that growth accelerated from 3.2% to 4.8%, surpassing the forecast of 4.0%. Concerns about a slowing Chinese economy have been one of the key drivers of the dollar's strength since late September. Signs of recovery in China's economic activity could serve as a basis for a potential reversal and the start of a weakening dollar trend. That said, the dollar is likely to continue its upward trajectory today. According to forecasts, U.S. industrial production growth is expected to accelerate from 1.7% to 1.9%, while industrial production decline should ease from -0.6% to -0.4%.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Nasdaq Loses 0.64%, But Tesla, Disney Boost Investor Morale

Fed In No Hurry to Cut Rates US stock indices ended the trading session in negative territory on Thursday, driven by statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who made it clear that interest rates are not expected to be cut anytime soon. According to him, the current economic situation allows the Fed to act in a balanced manner, without rushing to ease monetary policy. Speaking at an event in Dallas, Powell emphasized that the US economy continues to show growth, the employment level remains stable, and inflation still exceeds the target of 2%. This means that it is important for the regulator to exercise caution before taking steps to ease policy. Rate forecasts have been adjusted Against the backdrop of these statements, investor expectations have changed significantly. Despite the fact that some traders are still betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the probability of such a scenario has dropped to 62%. The day before, it was 76%, and on Wednesday it reached 82.5%, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. Indexes fall The main Wall Street indices ended the day in the red zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 207.33 points, or 0.47%, to end at 43,750.86. The broader S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 36.21 points, or 0.60%, to end at 5,949.17. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 123.07 points, or 0.64%, to end at 19,107.65. Inflation Data Powell's comments came shortly after the release of producer price data. The October producer price index for final demand rose 0.2% from the previous month, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the 2.4% annual increase was slightly higher than expected, adding to the Fed's cautious stance. Thursday's trading session showed that investor expectations do not always match reality. Powell's statements reminded the market that policy easing takes time, and the resilience of the economy is the regulator's main goal.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 18, 2024



The price has been correcting from the support area at 1.0483 since Friday and this morning. The 1.0590 resistance level has already been tested. As the Marlin oscillator has turned upward, the price may attempt to overcome this level and extend the correction toward 1.0636. Additionally, today's Eurozone trade balance data for September is expected to show growth from 4.6 billion euros to 7.9 billion euros.



On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, suggesting it aims to assist the price in breaking above the nearest resistance level.

The second target, 1.0636, will soon receive reinforcement from the MACD line, which converges toward it. From the 1.0636 level, we anticipate a price reversal into a new downward wave targeting the untested range of 1.0449–1.0483.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indexes Fall, Nvidia Inspires U.S. Stocks to Take New Direction

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Lose Ground Wall Street's key indexes ended the week in negative territory. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest one-day losses in two weeks, driven by concerns about a slowdown in interest rate cuts and the markets' reaction to President-elect Donald Trump's first moves. Jerome Powell: 'Caution First' Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday outlined three key factors influencing the regulator's policy: stable economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation above the 2% target. These conditions, he said, require the Fed to take a more measured approach to future rate decisions. Market Revises Expectations Investors have adjusted their forecasts: the probability that the rate will remain unchanged at the Fed's December meeting has risen to 42% from 14% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch. Moreover, traders have become less confident that monetary easing will resume in 2025. Data Adds Fuel to the Fire On Friday, published statistics increased investor concerns. U.S. retail sales in October showed a slightly stronger growth than expected, and import prices showed a recovery. An additional factor was the previously published data indicating the stability of inflation despite the Fed's efforts. From elections to reality Amid Friday's sell-off, markets ended a week in which investor sentiment changed noticeably. If Donald Trump's election was initially seen as a signal in favor of business, now attention has shifted to the risks associated with the policies of the new administration, as well as uncertainty around the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. "A good month, but taking profits" Trading volume on Friday was above average, which analysts attribute to partial profit-taking. "US stocks have shown excellent results this month, but the current activity does not indicate panic fixing. These are more signs of rotation between sectors," commented John Augustine, chief investment officer of Huntington National Bank. He noted that the growth in the utilities sector (.SPLRCU) became a kind of indicator of a shift in investor interests.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2024

The final inflation data for the Eurozone confirmed the preliminary estimate, showing an acceleration in consumer price growth from 1.7% to 2.0%, entirely in line with expectations. As a result, there was no market reaction, and the pair continued to consolidate near its previous levels. This trend will likely persist due to the lack of significant macroeconomic events on the calendar. Consolidation could even evolve into stagnation, as notable macroeconomic data is only scheduled for release on Friday. This includes the preliminary estimates of business activity indices. Unless something unexpected happens, the market will likely remain in a state of relative equilibrium for the rest of the week.

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