Forex News from InstaForex

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:01 am

NZ Dollar Climbs Amid Rising Risk Appetite On Trade Deal Hopes

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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday amid rising risk appetite, as investors welcomed progress in trade talks between U.S. and China, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that trade deal would go "way beyond" previous efforts to open China's markets to U.S. companies.

Speaking on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund this weekend, Mnuchin said that U.S-China trade talks are "close to the final round of concluding issues".

Mnuchin said that the two sides have consented that "the enforcement mechanism works in both directions."

Data from BusinessNZ showed that New Zealand services sector continued to expand in March, albeit at a slower rate, with a Performance of Services Index score of 52.9.

That's down from 53.6 in February, and it marks the lowest index score since 2012.

The kiwi advanced to an 11-day high of 0.6783 against the greenback, from a low of 0.6760 seen at 5:00 pm ET. The next possible resistance for the kiwi is seen around the 0.69 level.

The kiwi that closed last week's trading at 75.72 against the yen firmed to a 2-week high of 75.96. The kiwi is poised to find resistance around the 77.00 level.

The kiwi appreciated to a 4-day high of 1.6677 against the euro, compared to 1.6700 hit late New York Friday. If the kiwi rises further, 1.64 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The NZ currency edged up to 1.0582 against the aussie, following a low of 1.0614 touched at 5:00 pm ET. The kiwi is seen finding resistance around the 1.04 level.

Looking ahead, Swiss producer and import prices for March are due at 2:30 am ET.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will deliver a speech in a television appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box at 8:30 am ET.

In the New York session, New York Fed's empire manufacturing survey for April and Canada existing home sales for March are slated for release.

At 1:00 pm ET, Evans will speak about the economy and monetary policy at the New York Association for Business Economics luncheon.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:40 am

Carry trade is back in fashion

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In conditions of low volatility, traders once again resort to the help of a carry-trade strategy. Last week, a Bloomberg currency index that measures carry-trade returns from eight emerging markets has increased for the second week in a row. Such dynamics is recorded for the first time in more than two months. At the same time, expected fluctuations in currencies dropped for a second week, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co volatility indicator.

The lack of volatility in the foreign exchange markets suggests that investors need evidence to accelerate the growth of the global economy. Only then will they begin to enter long positions in EM-assets. Buyers' confidence in improving the state of the Chinese economy seems to be increasing every day. But the data on Wednesday, most likely, will show that the growth rate of the second largest economy in the world in Q1 stalled to 6.3%.

Investors continue to worry about country risks. In India, Indonesia and South Africa, elections are scheduled, Brazil is still trying to implement pension reforms, and Turkey cannot stop the economic decline and high inflation.

Upcoming events

On Wednesday, Indonesians will decide whether to give the current president, Joko Widodo a mandate for a second five-year term or to choose another leader. The official count may take several days. Last month, the rupee became the best in Asia after the Philippine peso.

In Brazil, traders' attention will be directed to the first congressional vote on the pension reform bill. Any postponement of a political event scheduled for Wednesday will be perceived negatively. Markets will focus on the number of votes that supported the bill. The situation with the speaker of the lower house, Rodrigo Maya, will also be in sight, after local media accused him of bribery.

Senior representatives of the Bank of Korea on Thursday will discuss the possibility of a rate cut later this year after an unexpected slowdown in inflation in March. Market participants are already evaluating potential monetary easing. The yields on 3-year government bonds for the first time since 2016 fell below the rate at the end of March.

China is in focus

Along with the GDP report for Q1, China will publish monthly data on retail sales and industrial production. Investors are waiting for growth rates. In addition, on Wednesday comes the first maturity of the medium-term credit line in the amount of 367.5 billion yuan, or $ 55 billion. According to Chinese analysts, this gives the ideal time to adjust the reserve indicators of banks in case of disappointment with the growth statistics. China's securities should benefit from easing trade tensions with the US.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:51 pm

This April is going to be idle again for the pound

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For the second year in a row, the British currency is missing the once-solid seasonal April rally associated with dividend flows. Blame it on the long-suffering Brexit and the risk of participating in European elections. Earlier for more than a decade, the sterling rose in price against the dollar every April. It was a kind of tradition.

The reasons for the pound's growth at this time of year were simple. Local companies repatriated "home" dividends. Most firms are transnational. Not surprisingly, after receiving dividends abroad, they converted them to pounds. This model was absolutely workable and even withstood a powerful shock in the form of the 2008 crisis.

While the pound rose 0.4% in tandem with the US dollar since the end of March, over the past 13 years to 2017, the average sterling grew by 2.3% in April. Last April, the pound approached the peak after the 2016 Brexit, when a referendum was held before turning down. As a result, the GBPUSD pair ended April with a fall of 1.8%.

London has achieved the extension of the country's exit date from the European Union, market concerns about the chaotic "divorce" process have decreased, but this does not mean that the worst is over. Now investors will have to face political risks, such as the upcoming local elections in the UK, and the Brexit deadlock is only delayed. Alarming moods are likely to return and would put even more pressure on the pound. In late April, the British currency may start a new wave of decline.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:38 pm

Fasten your seat belts: after a lull in the market, a surge of "turbulence" is expected

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Despite the global lull in the Forex market, traders do not seem to relax. The bottom, where JP Morgan's world currency volatility index turned out to be, may portend strong fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate - this has happened three times in the past 25 years. Some currency strategists warn that they should prepare for a surge in market "turbulence."

In the meantime, in the face of declining volatility of key currencies, investors are forced to search every corner of the market in search of profit.

"The lack of serious movement in developed markets means that currency traders should try their luck in the darker corners of the liquid currencies of developing countries," said Peter Rosensstraich of Swissquote Bank.

"Hedge funds have begun to redefine the weight of emerging markets against the dollar," said Philip Ferreira, senior mixed assets strategist at Lyxor Asset Management.

According to Keith Jax, a Societe Generale specialist, using the yen as a funding currency to buy Indian rupee, Chinese yuan or the Philippine peso could bring substantial profits.

Carry trading also looks attractive in a low volatile environment.

"At the beginning of the year, we opened longs for the USD/ZAR pair, since it managed to rally, which took place in February-March. We received about 6% profit on this jump, and I am very pleased with it, "said Allianz investment manager Casper Brzezniak.

"The pound sterling is trading in an even narrower range than its counterparts, since Brexit was postponed until October, and the volatility of the British currency fell sharply. To make money in these conditions, you need to have time to take advantage of short periods of volatility on the news. This strategy can bear fruit if you choose the right range. Timing is also very important," said Scott Thiel of BlackRock Inc.

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