Forex News from InstaForex

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:38 am

New Zealand Holds Official Cash Rate Steady At 1.75%

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday kept its Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1.75 percent for the 15th straight meeting.

The decision was in line with expectations following a 0.25 percent rate cut in November 2016.

The central bank has pared a collective 0.50 percent from its benchmark in the last 25 months, lowering the rate in six of the last 22 meetings after six straight sessions with no change.

GDP growth is expected to pick up through 2019 and the OCR is expected to be unchanged through this year and into 2020, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted.

"Trading-partner growth is expected to further moderate in 2019 and global commodity prices have already softened, reducing the tailwind that New Zealand economic activity has benefited from," Orr said. "The risk of a sharper downturn in trading-partner growth has also heightened over recent months."

Core consumer prices are expected to gradually rise to the mid-point of the central bank's target range at 2 percent - although inflation could rise faster if cost increases are passed on.

"There are upside and downside risks to this outlook," Orr said. "A more pronounced global downturn could weigh on domestic demand, but inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent."

He added that the direction of the next move could be up or down.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximizing sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation," Orr said.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:27 am

Euro Rises Following German GDP Data

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Destatis has published German preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and wholesale price index for January at 2:00 am ET Thursday.

After these data, the euro rose against its major rivals.

The euro was trading at 125.39 against the yen, 1.1381 against the franc, 1.1294 against the greenback and 0.8768 against the pound around 2:01 am ET.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:38 am

China CPI Slows To 1.7% On Year In January

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Consumer prices in China were up 1.7 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.9 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.5 percent following the flat reading in December.

Producer prices were up 0.1 percent on year, shy of expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:29 am

U.S. Dollar Falls On Trade Talk Hopes

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The U.S. dollar depreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday, as investors awaited trade talks between the U.S. and China beginning this week, after making some progress in talks held last week.

A statement from the White House said high level U.S.-China trade talks this week led to "progress between the two parties", but noted "much work remains."

Trump said that the meetings were very productive and he is ready to extend the March 1 deadline and hold off a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday, with investors awaiting more clues on its rate hike path for this year.

The greenback declined to a 5-day low of 1.2920 against the pound, down from a 5-day high of 1.2899 hit at 5:45 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 1.32 level.

The greenback slipped to a weekly low of 1.0029 against the franc, following a high of 1.0055 seen at 5:15 pm ET. The next likely support for the greenback is seen around the 0.99 level.

Pulling away from an early high of 1.1289 against the euro, the greenback fell to a 5-day low of 1.1325. On the downside, 1.15 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.

The greenback dropped to a 5-day low of 1.3225 against the loonie, near 2-week lows of 0.6893 against the kiwi and 0.7159 against the aussie, from its early highs of 1.3255, 0.6855 and 0.7133, respectively. The greenback is poised to challenge support around 1.29 against the loonie, 0.70 against the kiwi and 0.74 against the aussie.

On the flip side, the greenback held steady against the yen, after having advanced to 110.58 at 6:55 pm ET. The pair was valued at 110.46 at Friday's close.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan core machine orders fell 0.1 percent on month in December - beating expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the flat reading in November.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders were up 0.9 percent - shy of forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.

The U.S. markets remain closed for Presidents Day holiday.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:30 am

EUR/USD: real weakness of the greenback or vain hopes for progress in the negotiations?

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In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10.

Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold above this mark.

Last week, the dollar received the main blow from the internal statistics, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast values. In particular, in December, retail sales in the United States declined at the fastest rate in almost a decade, which has led to renewed talk about preparing for a slowdown in the US economy and the best times for the greenback are over.

It is assumed that this week a weak report on retail sales will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since the minutes of the Fed's January meeting, which will be published this Wednesday, are likely to confirm the regulator's intention to maintain a wait-and-see position in March.

At the same time, the main negative factor for the single European currency is the fact that the ECB and the European Commission have recently revised downward forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the region, which in turn postpones the ECB interest rate hike to a later date. In addition, there is still tension on the political scene: the UK's uncontrolled exit from the EU is still on the agenda. Investors are not optimistic about the possibility of introducing trade duties on European cars from the United States.

Currently, positive market expectations regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China are the main factor supporting the euro.

Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced significant progress in this direction.

It should be noted that previously something similar could already be observed. One can only hope that the White House's comments on the "good pace" of the talks (which, by the way, only two weeks are left) are a sign of a real breakthrough, not false promises.

Thus, to some extent, the further growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the parties enter into a trade agreement or the United States will extend the deadline for signing it.

However, according to experts, the "bulls" on the euro are not particularly counting on anything, since only a breakthrough above the mark of 1.15 will be a sign of upward dynamics.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:50 pm

Australia Wage Prices Gain 0.5% On Quarter In Q4

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Wage prices in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged.

On a yearly basis, wage prices advanced 2.3 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

Private sector wages were up 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year, while public sector wages rose 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year.

The highest index rise at an industry level was in financial and insurance services (0.9 percent) and the lowest in accommodation and food services (0.1 percent).

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:24 am

Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.0% In January

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The jobless rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged and in line with expectations.

The Australian economy added 31,900 jobs last month - blowing away forecasts for an increase of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 16,900 jobs in December.

Full-time employed persons increased 65,400 to 8,743,100 and part-time employed persons decreased 26,300 to 4,008,700.

Unemployed persons increased 6,600 to 673,500.

The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate fell 0.2 pts to 8.1 percent, while the monthly underutilization rate fell 0.1 pts to 13.2 percent.

The participation rate was 65.7 percent, exceeding expectations for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.6 million hours to 1766.4 million hours.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:08 am

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German GDP Data

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At 2:00 am ET Friday, Destatis will release German final GDP data for the fourth quarter. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro rose against the greenback and the yen, it held steady against the franc and the pound.

The euro was worth 125.64 against the yen, 1.1351 against the franc, 0.8698 against the pound and 1.1341 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:23 am

EUR / USD: Greenback's remarkable resilience and euro's ghostly hopes for growth

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Against the backdrop of expectations on the possible occurrence of a three -year cycle tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) and its nearing completion, traders began to rely on the weakening of the US currency by the end of last year. However, after the decline in December-January, the greenback was able to get managed in February not only to restore the lost positions, but also to strengthen by almost 1%.

This year, the stability of the dollar came as a surprise to many. However, it is hardly surprising, given the fact that the same factors that limit the Fed in actions (slowing global growth and tightening financial conditions), force other central banks to take a more cautious position, "BlackRock representatives said.

"It is possible that in the future the market will have to adapt not only to mitigate the Fed's policy, but also to show a more" dovish "attitude of the ECB. It is assumed that in the coming months, the difference in interest rates in Europe and the United States will play in favor of the greenback, "noted JP Morgan Asset Management experts.

"Despite the easing of the Fed's rhetoric, the single European currency finally lost its appeal, as well as, the support of those drivers who provided the upward momentum of EUR / USD in 2016-2018. We expect a shift in trade from the range of 1.12-1.15 to 1.10-1.14, "analysts at Barclays said.

"The euro against the dollar stuck in the area of 1.12-1.16. We believe that cyclical factors will support the demand for the American currency in the near future, "said strategists at Danske Bank.

According to the experts, in the event of a settlement of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, it will be possible to count on accelerating US economic growth, which is why the Fed will return to a tighter monetary policy to support the greenback.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:43 am

The dollar could be preparing for a new rally

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Following the active growth observed in mid-February, the US currency came under pressure against the background of a softening of the Fed's rhetoric and positive expectations about making progress in the United States and China trade negotiations.

Does this mean that the strengthening of the greenback, which began in February last year, is nearing completion?

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to refrain from hiking interest rates in the current year, and are inclined to believe that the next step for the regulator may be to reduce the cost of borrowing, at least this is indicated by the futures quotations for the federal financing rate.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the last meeting of the US central bank show that it may not be such a "dove" as the markets believe. In any case, the prevailing views among FOMC members proceed from the fact that the regulator may have not yet completed the rate hiking process, but simply paused it.

In particular, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, believes that the Fed may raise the federal funds rate by 0.25% this year and by the same amount next year.

As for the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the transaction may not take place at all, which will be one of the drivers for strengthening the greenback.

Here we should also add America's trade war against Europe, as well as the growing US public debt. In addition, one should not forget about the securities market, which may be on the "bearish" territory after the longest "bullish" cycle in history, which will again push global investors to US government bonds and the dollar.

Thus, based on the above, most likely, we should expect the next USD rally, within which the highest levels of November-February (around the mark of 97.50) will be tested.

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