Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:50 am

False start: EUR/USD pair slumped to 1.1150 amid dovish rumors about ECB intentions

Against the background of an empty calendar, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly demonstrated a downward impulse, testing support for 1.1150 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). By and large, traders today started "ahead of schedule" to recoup the hypothetical results of the ECB July meeting, which will be held on Thursday.

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First of all, it is worth noting that, reacting so violently to dovish rumors, the EUR/USD bears drive themselves into a trap of high expectations: if the European regulator does not justify bearish hopes, the pair can shoot back, as has repeatedly happened in similar situations. In any case, today's decline should be treated with caution, given the informational unreliability of fundamental factors. Obviously, at the moment, EUR/USD traders follow the principles of "sell on rumors, buy on facts". So far, investors are selling the pair at a heightened pace, but if the rumors spread do not materialize on July 25, the pair will be just as actively bought.

By and large, the single currency became a victim only of the assumption that the European Central Bank will soften the parameters of monetary policy at the next meeting, that is, the day after tomorrow. Such rumors appeared following the monthly report of the Bundesbank published yesterday and the updated forecast of the International Monetary Fund published today. The essence of the published documents is that the economic situation will only worsen in the foreseeable future and, therefore, the leading central banks of the world should prepare for appropriate response actions.

Thus, according to the information of the German central bank, the German industry showed a decline in the second quarter of this year (continuing the negative trend of the first quarter), while the high probability of a hard Brexit slows down the export sector of the country, which was already under pressure from global trade conflicts. According to monthly data, the volume of industrial production in Germany (seasonally adjusted) rose by only 0.3% in May, while the estimate for April was revised downward to -2%. In annual terms, the volume of industrial production in Germany declined by 3.7% at once. In general, leading indicators, including the volume of production orders, suggest that the German economy in the second quarter will demonstrate a dismal result, especially against the background of growth at the beginning of the year. After the publication of this report, some experts suggested that this document will affect the decisiveness of ECB members regarding the launch of new incentives and further easing of monetary policy.

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Today's IMF report also added fuel to the fire. For the fourth time in a row, the Fund's analysts lowered forecasts for global GDP growth - this time the figure was revised from 3.3% to 3.2%. In addition, in the July review of the world economy, the IMF estimated the prospects for economic growth in some countries of the world. In particular, the forecast for the current year was slightly reduced for Germany (which is consistent with the findings of the Bundesbank), but remained unchanged for France and Italy. The growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2019-2020 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2% and 6%, respectively. It is noteworthy that the forecast for the growth of the American economy was revised by IMF economists upward (by 2019) by 0.3%, that is, to 2.6%. This factor served as an additional factor supporting the dollar amid falling fears about the "too dovish" actions of the Fed at the July meeting.

But regarding the possible actions of the ECB for EUR/USD traders, the opposite opinion is completely different. So, according to some analysts polled by Bloomberg, the European regulator can divide the monetary policy easing process into two phases, lowering the interest rate at the July meeting further into the negative area, and resuming the quantitative easing program at the September meeting. According to other analysts (of which the majority), Mario Draghi at the July meeting only announces a large-scale softening of the parameters of monetary policy, but he will start taking real steps in the autumn, before his resignation.

In my opinion, the regulator will not be in a hurry with its actions in July, and the market is now "in advance" playing out the dovish intentions of the ECB. In addition, the EUR/USD pair is also falling due to the growth of the dollar index. The US currency is growing on market confidence that the Fed will limit itself to a "warning shot" in the form of a one-time rate cut of 25 basis points. This fact has already been taken into account in the prices since the moment Jerome Powell spoke in Congress. The vast majority of the Fed members who spoke last week before the unofficial "silence regime" (10 days before the Fed meeting) made it clear that the regulator does not intend to take the path of aggressive rate cuts - after the July decline, the Fed is more likely to take a wait-and-see position. Naturally, this fact will not please the White House - but so far traders are guided only by the declared intentions of the US central bank, and not by Trump's hypothetical plans to devalue the national currency. Therefore, the dollar is growing "on all fronts" today, reinforcing the EUR/USD pair's downward trend.

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At the time of this writing, the euro-dollar pair was unable to overcome the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (1.1150) due to the attenuation of the downward impulse. If in the near future, bears of the pair do not receive additional support from the information field (which is unlikely), the pair will continue to drift in the price range of 1.1150-1.12230 (where 1.1230 is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud at D1), until the ECB meeting on which Mario Draghi will dot the i.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:14 am

Control zones AUDUSD 07.25.19

Today's trading plan should take into account the approach of the pair to the average value of the weekly move. Sellers need to close a short position and expect a corrective pullback. The test of the average move can allow to obtain favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument in the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern of yesterday's minimum.

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The probability of closing trades within the average move is 70%, so sales near the zone are not profitable. It is necessary to take into account that the descending model remains a priority, as the weekly CZ of 0.6946-0.6933 has not yet been reached. An alternative model will be to go beyond the average weekly turn for the test of the specified zone. This will allow to get favorable prices for the purchase of a tool, since the probability of returning to the middle course is 90%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:17 am

#USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 26, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Let us consider the comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD from July 26, 2019.

Minuette (H4)
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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from July 26, 2019 will result depending on the direction of the range breakdown :
resistance level of 97.75 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale fork);
support level of 97.55 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette)

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (support level of 97.55) will determine the development of the #USDX movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (97.55 - 97.45 - 97.35), and during the breakdown of the lower boundary (97.35) of this channel, the downward movement of the US dollar index can be extended to the median line (97.25) of the Minuette operating scale forks and the equilibrium zone (97.21 - 97.05 - 96.88) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the other hand, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 97.75 on the SSL start line, the Minuette operational scale forks will be followed by updating the local maximum 97.82. After that, the upward movement of #USDX can continue to the targets - the UTL Minuette control line (97.95) - the UWL61.8 Minuette warning line (98.10).

The details of the #USDX movement are shown in the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US dollar

Similarly in the case of the dollar index, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from July 26, 2019 will be due to the direction of the range breakdown :

resistance level of 1.1160 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork);
support level of 1.1121 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1160 will make it possible to develop the movement of the single European currency within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1160 - 1.1170 - 1.1180) and the equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1205 - 1.1222) of the Minuette operating scale.

In the case of confirmation of the breakdown of the initial SSL line (1.1121) of the Minuette operating scale fork, the downward movement of EUR / USD can be continued towards the targets - minimum 1.1107 - warning line UWL38.2 (1.1052) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the movement options for this pair are presented in the graph.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Meanwhile, the development of the movement of Her Majesty's Currency GBP / USD from July 26, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2530 - 1.2500 - 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale. The movement options within this channel are shown in the animated graphic.

If the resistance level of 1.2530 is broken down at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette, the upward movement of GBP / USD can be continued to the targets - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2615) and the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork -the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.2620) is the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2645) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.2460) will determine the further development of the movement of the single European currency in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2460 - 1.2405 - 1.2350) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the animated graphics.

Image

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. In addition, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is:
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6%;
Pound sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:59 am

Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 29, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y and the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance.3 : 109.03.

Resistance. 2: 108.82.

Resistance. 1: 108.61.

Support. 1: 107.34.

Support. 2: 107.13.

Support. 3: 107.92.

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:21 am

Control zones for Bitcoin on 07/30/19

Yesterday, Bitcoin has dropped to $ 9000. This allowed us to re-test the monthly minimum. The response to the test was an increase in demand. This makes it possible to indicate that there are limit buyers within the monthly minimum. While levels from 9000 and above are saturated with buyers, a further decrease remains unlikely. Thus, the likelihood of continued movement within the medium-term flat increases.

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It is also important to note that Bitcoin went beyond the monthly control zone. This makes it possible to search for purchases in the direction of return, since the probability of return is 90%.

When building a trading plan, it is important to note that throughout the past week, the pair has been trading below the level of balance. Today, the situation is similar, so the movement towards yesterday's high will be decisive. If the price is kept below the balance, the probability of updating the monthly minimum will be more than 50%. To break the downward impulse, it will be necessary to consolidate above the balance mark

Image

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:33 am

Forecast for EUR/USD for July 31, 2019

On Tuesday, the euro came under pressure from unfavorable economic statistics, but investors missed the data ahead of the Fed's FOMC decision on Wednesday. French GDP for the 2nd quarter was 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3%, personal incomes and consumer spending in the US showed an expected increase of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. But trading volumes were not large, as the euro rose by 11 points.

The price reached a Fibonacci level of 110.0% on the daily chart, where it stayed until today's Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator was discharged - it rose upwards, which may be a sign of a continued decline in case of favorable fundamental component.

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On the four-hour chart, the price reached the balance and MACD line, and also lingered in them. The primary signal for a further decline is the departure of the price below 1.1132. Next, we expect to overcome the support zone of 1.102/12 and further decline to 1.1074 and 1.0985.

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But today, the Fed will announce the decision on the rate with a market likelihood that it would decrease by a quarter point at 100%. The risk of a short-term growth in the euro to the line of the price channel at 1.1202 (daily), of course. In our opinion, today's rate cut is quickly being absorbed by the market, since, in parallel with the Fed, the European Central Bank also pursues a policy of easing, and amid deteriorating European economic indicators. Western media claim that the Fed rate cut has already been taken into account in the price. We do not agree with this statement, but the message is clear - financial institutions do not want a weakening dollar, which fits into our concept of a strong dollar in the long run.

Therefore, we see two scenarios for the euro's near development: an immediate downward movement after a decision on the rate, and especially after Jerome Powell's press conference, where a pause in the mitigation cycle can be mentioned, and a downward movement after a short-term growth to 1.1202.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:57 pm

GBP/USD. "Super Thursday" will not help the pound

The pound-dollar pair demonstrated correctional growth today after updating its annual low and reaching two-year price troughs. Bears of GBP/USD could not enter the 20th figure, after which the bulls seized the initiative and nearly 100 points passed in a day. This dynamic is mainly due to technical factors - an overabundance of short positions in the British currency makes itself felt.

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In addition, the market "remembered" that the prime minister of Britain, with all his desire, cannot single out the country from the EU - this requires the approval of the Parliament. Ironically, the House of Commons, after several years of confrontation with the government of Theresa May and Brussels, can become an unexpected ally of the Europeans, stopping the implementation mechanism of the chaotic Brexit. Deputies have already taken preventive measures by adopting an amendment to the law on self-government in Northern Ireland. This provision does not allow the prime minister to stop the Parliament's work, which can quickly block withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. In turn, Johnson can decide on early Parliamentary elections, hoping to get the majority under control. There are several other scenarios, one of which is the announcement of a vote of no confidence in the newly minted premier. In any case, Johnson faces a difficult struggle within the walls of the British Parliament, whose members, as we recall, did not support the option of a "hard" Brexit during a signal vote at the beginning of this year.

This disposition made it possible for the pound to move away from the level of two-year lows. On the other hand, the British currency continues to be under strong background pressure, as Brexit prospects remain dim - even if Parliament does not allow Johnson to withdraw the country from the Alliance without an agreement on October 31. London and Brussels are still at different poles on many issues - which includes the fate of the Irish border. Therefore, this political rebus will remain unresolved in any case - until one of the parties makes substantial concessions.

Given the current situation, any growth in the British currency should be treated with caution. Here it is worth recalling that the so-called "super-Thursday" is expected tomorrow, when several important events take place within a day: the Bank of England meeting, the release of the quarterly report on inflation and the publication of a summary of monetary policy. The news marathon is completed by Mark Carney, who will hold an extended press conference. Such a "news jackpot" is relatively rare, so traders are unlikely to ignore it, despite the undeniable priority of the Brexit issue.

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However, these issues can not be separated from each other. Last year, the head of the Bank of England warned of the extremely negative consequences of a hard Brexit. In particular, he said that if Britain withdraws from the EU without a deal, then the country will have to rely on the conditions of the WTO. The head of the English regulator even admitted the likelihood that the monetary policy in this case would be revised in the direction of easing. Since then, Carney's rhetoric has not undergone any fundamental changes. He does not tire of repeating that the prospects for monetary policy depend primarily on the prospects for the negotiation process. Moreover, the transfer of Brexit in this context will also not be an acceptable solution, since in this case the period of uncertainty will only be extended. In other words, the English regulator unequivocally associated a further increase in the interest rate with a soft Brexit, and Mark Carney consistently advocated this causal relationship.

Given the recent events, the head of the Bank of England is unlikely to toughen his rhetoric - on the contrary, he can describe in more detail the prospects for the chaotic scenario. That is why tomorrow's inflation report and monetary policy summary will play a secondary role, and the focus of GBP/USD traders will be on Carney's rhetoric. Also, do not forget that the English regulator closely monitors the dynamics of the global trade war. Let me remind you that the 12th round of talks between Beijing and Washington was completed ahead of schedule today. The parties noted "some progress" and agreed to meet again in September. The market clearly expected more from this meeting, so anti-risk sentiments returned to the market. This factor can also affect the mood of the members of the English regulator, reinforcing their "dovish" attitude.

Thus, the "super-Thursday" is unlikely to help the British currency in restoring its position. Against the background of the Brexit lull, the pound will follow the US currency in anticipation of the next news drivers. Therefore, the trading strategy for the GBP/USD pair remains unchanged - short positions for any more or less large-scale correctional growth.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:59 am

GBP/USD. Unexpected dollar weakness and hopeless pound prospects

The US dollar unexpectedly stopped growing in almost all pairs in the afternoon. The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the bottom of the 10th figure to the level of 1.1085, the USD/JPY pair dropped to the bottom of the 108th figure, and the aussie again went to conquer the 69th price level.

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In varying degrees, the greenback surrendered its positions in the remaining pairs. The pound-dollar pair was no exception: after the price again updated its annual low of 1.2078, a rather sharp reversal and growth followed in the middle of the 21st figure. By and large, a corrective pullback was expected, as the pair was gradually approaching its record high, that is, to a record low of 1.1986, which was reached in January 2017. As the pair's downward impulse exhaled, the probability of a corrective growth increased - from the bottom of the 20th figure. But the dollar was ahead of the event, weakening throughout the market. As a result, the GBP/USD pair retreated by almost 100 points only due to the devaluation of the greenback.

This price dynamics was due to several reasons. First, the ISM Manufacturing Index was published today, which, despite positive forecasts, dropped to 51.2 points, updating its multi-month lows. The structure of the indicator suggests that the employment component fell to 51.7 points (for comparison, it was at 54.7 in the previous month), and the price component of the index (inflation component) fell to 45.1 points, while the growth forecast to 50 -ty points. In general, the indicator has been falling for the fourth month in a row, disrupting the optimistic picture of the US statistical reporting.

After a strong Nonfarms and relatively good data on US GDP growth, today's release has become a kind of "cold shower" for dollar bulls. After all, the words of Jerome Powell are still fresh in their memory, as they allowed a further reduction in the interest rate, if key macroeconomic indicators show a steady decline. Yesterday, this rhetoric supported the dollar, as the key economic indicators that preceded the July Fed meeting came out (mostly) in the green zone or at the level of forecasts. But the ISM index "sobered up" many market participants, especially on the eve of tomorrow's Nonfarms, which traders could also be disappointed in, given the relatively weak report from ADP (according to their data, the increase in the number of employees amounted to 156,000 in July).

Amid doubts that have resurfaced regarding the Fed's future actions, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell sharply. In just a few hours, this figure fell from 2,053% to 1,952%. The fact of such a rapid decline put additional pressure on the dollar, allowing bulls of the GBP/USD pair to return to the 21st figure.

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In general, the current situation shows how dollar bulls are uncertain in their abilities. Only one macroeconomic report was able to shake the position of the greenback, which has been building up its muscles throughout the day. If subsequent releases will also be released in the "red zone" (especially inflation indicators), the dollar will return the points gained in the medium term, as concerns about the next steps from the Fed will return to the market.

This situation will allow GBP/USD traders to open short positions at the peak of corrective pullbacks. After all, the fundamental picture remains negative for the pound, regardless of the US events. Johnson is still preparing Britain for the hard Brexit, and his aggressive rhetoric addressed to Brussels reduces the likelihood of any compromise. The market hopes for the help of the British Parliament, which can block the implementation of the chaotic scenario. But these hopes are justified only with the current composition of the House of Commons. In the meantime, the British press is increasingly suggesting that Johnson will decide to hold extraordinary Parliamentary elections. Here it is worth noting that with the arrival of the new prime minister, the Conservative Party rating rose by six points at once - that is, to 31%. The Labor Party ranking is now 21%. The gap in the ratings of Conservatives and Laborers was a record in the last five months. Such sociology also has background pressure on the pound, although the question of early elections is not yet on the agenda.

Nevertheless, uncertainty over Brexit prospects, as well as Johnson's aggressive attacks on the EU leadership suggest that the downward dynamics of GBP/USD is still justified. From a technical point of view, the pair is within the framework of the downward movement, as evidenced by the trend indicators on all "higher" timeframes (from H4 and higher). The nearest support level is at 1,2005 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart). The purpose of a possible corrective pullback is the mark of 1.2290 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart): if the bulls overcome it, then they will consolidate again in the 23rd figure. However, given the fundamental picture, it will be difficult for the bulls to find a reason for such a significant upward spurt.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:00 pm

EUR/USD. Useless Nonfarms: Trump made traders turn away from macroeconomic reports

Data on the growth of the US labor market could not support the dollar, which rather unexpectedly came under pressure from an external fundamental background. Another escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has mixed all the cards with dollar bulls. After all, at the end of the July Fed meeting, traders had the confidence that the regulator would limit itself to one round of rate cuts, as a precautionary measure. However, after the release of an extremely weak ISM index in the manufacturing sector, as well as after a resonant statement by Donald Trump, concerns about the Fed's next steps returned to the market.

Let me remind you that at the end of last week, the US president promised to introduce an additional 10 percent duty on imports of Chinese goods worth $300 billion starting on September 1, given that Beijing does not agree to conclude a deal with the United States before this deadline. If this scenario is implemented, additional tariffs will cover almost all imports from China. Trump was also outraged by the fact that China refused to comply with the agreements that were reached at the G-20 summit (we are talking about the resumption of purchases of agricultural goods). The fact that Washington, in fact, did not fulfill its part of the agreements (regarding the lifting of sanctions against Huawei), the head of the White House modestly kept silent.

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Nevertheless, the fact remains: recent events suggest that the positive results of the G20 summit have been completely offset. The first round of negotiations after the summit was completed ahead of time and without any clear result, whereas a few days later, Trump announced the above ultimatum. Here, even without official comments, it becomes clear that the parties are still defending their positions, despite the formal desire to find a mutually beneficial compromise. Before the start of the negotiations, Trump suggested that the Chinese would deliberately pull time before the next presidential election in the United States (which will take place in November 2020), hoping for a change of power. The most likely candidates from the Democratic Party are really ahead of the current president - at least for today. Therefore, there is certainly some sense in Beijing's actions: why make a knowingly unprofitable deal with Trump, if in a year it will be possible to agree on other conditions with Biden? This is the reason for such haste in Donald's decisions - given the rating gap from the Democrats, he needs a victory in a trade war, the negative consequences of which are felt not only by China and the world economy, but also by the US economy.

Such prospects had a fairly strong pressure on the US currency. Traders again increased the likelihood of another round of rate cuts at one of the autumn meetings (most likely in September), while some analysts do not rule out more radical scenarios - either a one-time rate cut of 50 basis points or a third decline in December. of the year. Such an unexpected reversal of the plot allowed the EUR/USD pair to move away from the level of a multi-year low (1.1026) and demonstrate corrective growth to the level of 1.1117. In general, the dollar index in a few hours of Friday fell from 98.258 to 97.873. The yield on 10-year-old Treasuries has also declined significantly - the indicator has collapsed to almost a three-year low (1.843%).

The market clearly focused on geopolitical events, as it completely ignored one of the key macroeconomic indicators, Nonfarms. Although this release was supposed to support a further rally in the US currency: the US labor market continues to recover, demonstrating the growth of the main components. Thus, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 164,000 (which fully coincided with the forecast), while the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.7%. The number of people employed in the manufacturing sector of the economy increased by 16 thousand (a positive trend for the 2nd month in a row). The growth rate of the average hourly wage also pleased investors: in annual terms, the indicator rose to 3.2% (for the first time since April), and in monthly terms, the component rose to 0.3% (at this level, the indicator goes for the third month in a row). Thus, the July data completely offset concerns about the dynamics of growth in the US labor market, although this issue was on the agenda this spring, both among investors and members of the US regulator.

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It is likely that after the release of Friday's data, EUR/USD bears would try to enter the ninth figure area or at least try to test a strong support level of 1.0980 (lower Kumo cloud boundary on the monthly chart) - but an unexpected move by the US president ruined the plans of the dollar bulls. When trading was about to close, the pair approached the first resistance level of 1.1120 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and if the growth of anti-risk sentiment continues, then the bulls will be able to develop further correction - up to the levels of 1.1190 and 1.1220 (middle line BB and Kijun-sen line on D1).

Here it is worth noting that on Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has already accused Donald Trump of violating the June agreement with Xi Jinping, promising to use "countermeasures". It is likely that this week we will find out what measures we are talking about. Strengthening the US-China conflict will put pressure on the dollar, since the escalation of trade war is seen by the market through the prism of prospects for further easing of the Fed's monetary policy.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:14 am

Control areas AUDUSD 08/06/19

The pair is trading within the medium-term bearish impulse today, therefore, the growth is corrective until the pair absorbs yesterday's movement. If the close of today's trading is below Monday's high, the downward momentum will continue. The probability of updating the weekly low is 70%.

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Working within the medium-term trend frame always provides an opportunity to search for favorable prices in a prioritized direction, since before the reversal of the momentum, in most cases, there is a false breakout pattern.

Changing the direction of trade requires a breakdown of the main resistance of the WCZ 1/2 0.6823-0.6816 and the closure of today's US session above it. In this case, purchases will come to the fore, the goal of which will be the weekly zontrol zone of 0.6897-0.6884. It is important to understand that work in the upward direction remains corrective.

Image

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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