Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:04 am

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 12, 2018

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The 1.7820 targets have now been tested. The question is whether this was the top of red wave iii and a correction in red wave iv is needed now? We have seen a quite massive negative divergence being build in the run higher to 1.7820, so it should come as no surprise if a minor correction in red wave iv is about to begin. A break below 1.7738 will indicate this is the case.

That said, the rally to 1.7820 only represents the minimum extension target of red wave i. Therefore, we have to be equally ready for this extension to continue towards the next extension targets at 1.7954 (the 200% extension of red wave i) or even higher to the 261.8% extension target of red wave i at 1.8184.
R3: 1.7954
R2: 1.7900
R1: 1.7825 Pivot: 1.7738
S1: 1.7678
S2: 1.7629
S3: 1.7590

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7730.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:01 am

US again "courting" China

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The unexpected offer of Americans to resume negotiations with China on trade duties on Wednesday evening led to a surge of optimism in the markets and a local weakening of the US dollar.

It seems that the US will not abandon the desire to "dent" China in the issue of the ratio of trade between countries. So far, they have not been able to do this, because the main problem of "exceptional", in our opinion, is their arrogance towards trading partners and the desire to use any methods to achieve their narrow-minded economic and political goals without taking them into account.

Earlier we have already mentioned that the trade balance not only, according to the latest data, has not shifted in favor of the Americans, but also fell, and the PRC's appeal to the WTO to punish the United States for their illegal actions could force the latter to resort to a new round of negotiations. Also, they may have realized that D. Trump's latest threats to expand the impact of new import tariffs by another 267 billion dollars did not have an effective impact on the leadership of "China", which was the reason for the desire to continue the negotiation process.

On this wave, the US and European stock indexes were supported by the results of trading on Wednesday, but already on Thursday the Chinese did not show such unambiguous optimism, which indicates that local investors are not confident in the success and perceive the proposals of the Americans as another trick and nothing more. We also believe that there will be no success in this process unless the United States engages in constructive and truly equitable negotiations.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the weakening of the dollar against commodities and commodity currencies will be local, which means that after the weakening of the US currency and another disappointment in the negotiations, we can observe a turn in the interest of market players towards purchases.

On Thursday, from the important events of the day we will highlight the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. We do not expect any breakthrough statements and changes in the bank's policy. It is likely that it will continue with its plan and then smoothly reduce the program of quantitative easing until the end of this year, which is positive for the euro. But it is unlikely to expect its strong growth when paired with the US dollar, as the process of raising rates in the US will compensate for the pressure of the euro, so we believe that the overall sideways trend of the euro/dollar pair in the short term will continue.

The forecast for today:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.1530-1.1650 in anticipation of the ECB meeting. Probably, the pair will remain in this range, turning down and rushing to its lower border.

The AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.7170. We do not expect a strong growth of the pair, as the RBA is unlikely to decide before the end of this year to raise rates on the wave of instability in the world. A price decrease below 0.7170 may be the reason for the price to fall to 0.7100.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:58 am

The pound is waiting for a signal to attack

The meeting of the Bank of England was held without noise and dust, and sterling is preparing to release important statistics on inflation and retail sales, observing the development of the situation in the field of trade wars. According to the regulator, the consequences of the conflict between the US and China for the world economy may be slightly worse than initially expected. The concern of MPC is evoked by developments in emerging markets. The committee unanimously voted to maintain the repo rate at 0.75% and said that by the end of 2019 excess demand could lead to further tightening of monetary policy.

In general, the meeting was held in line with expectations, and the increase in estimates of GDP growth of the UK from 0.4% to 0.5% q/q in the third quarter provided little support to the sterling. Markets were expecting a more positive result amid the acceleration of the average wage to 2.9% y/y and the economy to 0.6% in May-July, however, the central bank cooled the offensive ardor of the bulls with the statement that these figures came in line with the forecast. According to the regulator, inflation is moving in the direction of 2%, which suggests the possibility of using the "let's sit and see" approach.

The pound continues to show increased sensitivity to politics. Rumors that Brussels and London failed to achieve progress on the Irish border, has pushed prices higher, but a statement by the Labour Party that the opposition would vote against Theresa May's plan returned the bulls from heaven to earth. The correlation between the headlines about Brexit and the volatility of the sterling reached a record 70%, which is conclusive evidence that the growth of the GBP/USD is hampered primarily by politics.

Dynamics of correlation between Brexit headlines and sterling volatility

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Unlike the volatility of the pound, the volatility of the euro fell to a 5-month low. The ECB's plans to phase out QE and hold rates until at least September 2019 make the monetary policy transparent. Given the fact that the timing of the continuation of the normalization of BoE may shift from the end of 2019 to a later or, conversely, an earlier period, investors have a great opportunity to win back macroeconomic statistics on Britain in the EUR/GBP pair. According to Nomura, the release of retail sales data for August (September 20) looks particularly attractive. A pleasant surprise will contribute to the decline of the euro in the direction of £0.85. It should be noted that the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts for the end of 2018 is £0.89.

As for the GBP/USD pair, much will depend on the development of the situation in the field of trade wars. Donald Trump threatens to impose additional tariffs of $200 billion on Chinese imports and invites to negotiations. The Chinese media claim that Beijing will not conduct a dialogue at gunpoint. The escalation of the conflict will increase the demand for reliable assets, including the US dollar.

Technically, if the bulls on the GBP/USD pair manage to hold the quotes above the support at 1.3035 and take the resistance by 1.313, the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% on the Shark pattern will increase.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:35 am

USD/CAD Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise

USD/CAD bounced nicely off its support level at 1.2969 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance level at 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off its support level at 3.5% where a corresponding rise could occur.

USD/CAD bounced nicely off its support level where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 1.2969. Stop loss at 1.2937. Take profit at 1.3010.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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