LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the pair is expected to move in the sideways channel of 1.7100-1.7170

Current trend

On Wednesday investors’ attention was focused on the minutes of the meeting of the US FOMC. It had been expected that volume of trades would increase and volatility would go up; however it did not happen. FOMC did not provide any unexpected information and the pressure on the USD slightly increased. Members of made decision to terminate QE3 program by the end of October. FOMC also highlighted improvements in the labor market and in the economic situation as a whole
Today the Bank of England will announce the decision on asset purchase program and interest rate. The US data on initial applications for the unemployment benefits and inventories at the wholesale warehouses will become known. It is unlikely that the Bank of England will raise interest rate or decrease the volume of assets purchase; therefore, high volatility in the pair is not expected. In future demand for the Pound will continue to grow until the US Fed adopts drastic measures.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term the pair may grow up to the level of 1.7300. It is expected that this week the pair will move in the narrow range of 1.7100-1.7170.

Support levels: 1.7100, 1.7000, 1.6920, 1.6850, 1.6810 and 1.6780.
Resistance levels: 1.7150, 1.7200, 1.7260 and 1.7300.

Trading tips

It is recommended to trade as per trend, placing long and pending long orders from the levels of 1.7080 and 1.7000 with take profit at the level of 1.7300.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Due to lack of important macro-economic news yesterday the pair was quiet, slowly going up to resistance level of 101.80. Although the market was in anticipation of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, they did not seriously affect either the market, or the pair. At the opening of the European session today the pair continued to decline. At the moment the pair is testing support level of 101.30.
The chart demonstrates “bearish” trend. In case of breakdown of the level of 101.30, the pair USD/JPY will try to test support level of 100.85, which are the lows of May. It is unlikely that the “Bears” will manage to consolidate below this level. The most feasible scenario is correction in the range of 101.65-101.80. However technical indicators show further decline. Stochastic is in the oversold zone, both of the lines are directed downwards. MACD is in the negative zone, giving a sell signal. All three moving average lines with the periods of 20, 50 and 100 are directed downwards.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 101.30, 101.10 and 100.85. Resistance levels: 101.50, 101.65 and 101.80. The first target of the “bulls” is 101.65; breakdown of this level will enable the pair to win back lost positions.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions after consolidation of the price below the level of 101.30 with the target of 100.85. It also makes sense to place limit sell orders at the levels of 101.65 and 101.80. Long positions can be opened above the level of 102.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: The pair continues to trade in the downward channel

Current trend

On Thursday European currency dropped in price versus the American dollar due to improvements in the U.S. labour market and the increase in demand for the American currency. The pair reached the key support level of 1.3600 and consolidated near this level. This morning the pair tried to win back some losses; investors started to buy Euro in advance of the release of the final data on consumer price index in Germany. Market participants believed that the index would exceed the forecast, which did not happen. The index proved that predictions had been correct and the price went down again.

Support and resistance

Since the release of important fundamental data is not expected today, volatility is likely to be low. It is difficult to estimate further movement in the pair. However the pair remains in the downward channel, which means that the quotes will probably continue to decline. Cheap dollar is popular among investors, while Euro cannot receive support from positive European statistics. If the “bears” manage to push the price below key support level of 1.3580, the price may drop to the levels of 1.3520 and 1.3470. In the medium-term the target level will be 1.3300, which coincides with the lower limit of the downward channel.

Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3580, 1.3520, 1.3470 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to trade in the trend, placing short positions and pending short positions from the level of 1.3660 with take profit at 1.3300.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the increase in the U.S. retail sale may support the USD

Current trend

On Monday the currency pair EUR/USD demonstrated mixed trading. In the morning the price had reached resistance level of 1.3640, after that, the price corrected to support level of 1.3614 (middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. At the moment the pair is traded near this level.
Volatility in the market may increase due to fundamental data. ZEW business sentiment indices of Germany and EU for July will become known today. Forecast for Germany is negative and if it proves to be true, it can put significant pressure on Euro. U.S. retail sales data USA for May will also become known. It is expected that this index will double, amounting to 0.6%, which will have a positive impact on the USD. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the US Fed before Congress. Janet Yellen may give comments on the further actions of the American regulator.

Support and resistance

Today the price may continue downward movement to the levels of 1.3600, 1.3585 and probably to 1.3575. From the level of 1.3585 (bottom line of Bollinger bands) the price may reverse and go back to the level of 1.3610. On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm probability of the downward movement. The price chart is moving to the lower moving average line of the Bollinger bands indicator to the level of 1.3585. MACD histogram is near the zero line not giving clear signals. Stochastic lines are crossing, turning downwards.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price level with take profit at the level of 1.3585. At the level of 1.3585 it is recommended to place limit buy orders with the target of 1.3610.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: General analysis

Current trend

Following long-lasting ascending movement the price of gold dropped to the level of 1302.98. The decline in gold price was caused by the profit taking. At the moment the pair XAU/USD is under pressure from the U.S. economy, which is increasing growth rate. Analysts anticipate that the interest rates will be raised earlier than expected, which will significantly drop the price of gold.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1320.00 (psychologically important level), 1345.00 (four-month highs), 1391.92 (highs of 16 March).
Support levels: 1302.98 (Fibonacci retracement level 38.2%), 1292.40 (Fibonacci retracement level 50.0%), 1281.00 (Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%).

Trading tips

Short positions are advisable below the level of 1302.00 with the target of 1282.00 and stop-loss at 1310.00.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

With the opening of the trading session the Pound has been slowly declining against the USD. British real estate market continues to grow rapidly, especially in London, where the price per square meter increased by 15%. Experts fear that speculative bubbles may occur in the market, which will have a negative impact on the British economy. In addition, at yesterday’s meeting of the Central Bank of England, interest rate has been remained unchanged at the level of 0.5%, which weakened the national currency.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is 1.7120 (1/8 Murray line). If the Pound fails to hold this line, the price may drop to the level of 1.7080. Resistance level is 1.7151 (2/8Murray line).

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.7120 with protective orders at 1.7140 and the target of 1.7060.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The pair is being corrected after an abrupt fall. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.9366). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9326.



AUD/USD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. Under the pressure of Dead Cross pattern the price has broken down Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines, the latter becomes a resistance level (0.9392). The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 0.9332.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.9332, 0.9326.
Resistance levels: 0.9366, 0.9392.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement, however, daily chart confirms Bearish trend. It’s a good opportunity to open new short trades with targets at 0.9326.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the pair will continue to move in the downtrend

Current trend

At the first half- week European currency was under strong pressure from investors, while the USD was strengthening due to the positive data on the US inflation. Unexpected increase of the inflation pressure in the USA instills more confidence to the market participants.
Today’s European inflation data did not surprise investors, as it agreed with the forecasts. Therefore, the pair hardly responded to the news. During the day the data on the U.S labor market and construction sector will be released.

Support and resistance

EUR/USD is traded in the downward channel near important level of 1.3520. In case of breakout of this level, the pair will go further gown up to 1.3470. The increase of demand for the USD along with the positive US macro-economic statistics contributes to the rise of the American currency. N the medium-term it is expected that the pair EUR/USD will decline in the downtrend with the target of 1.3300.

Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3300 and 1.3250.
Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000.


Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense as per trend, placing short positions and pending short positions from the level of 1.3600 with take profit of 1.3300.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The beginning of the week was favourable for the pair USD/JPY. The pair USD/JPY rapidly went up from support level of 101.30 to up resistance level of 101.65. The rise was triggered by the report of the head of the US Fed Janet Yellen. However, the “bulls” failed to reach resistance level of 102.00. At the opening of today’s trading session, Nikkei index declined, which triggered the fall in the price of JPY.
Today the data on the US construction sector will become known. This index keeps declining lately, which indicates problems in the American economy.

Support and resistance

Support levels are 101.50, 101.30 and 101.10; the latter one is the main target of the “bears”. Resistance levels are 101.80, 101.95 and 102.25.

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 101.10 and consolidation of the price below this level. It also makes sense to open limit buy orders at the level of 101.30. Buy orders can be placed after breakdown of the level of 101.65.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is still ascending. After an abrupt rise the pair has been corrected to the level of Tenkan-sen line. Kijun-sen line becomes a support level (0.8943). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9000.



USD/CHF, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, confirming a new wave of the upward movement. Chinkou Span line is following the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8943). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9040.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.8943.
Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9040.

Trading tips

On the both charts we can see the renewal of the upward trend. Targets for the long positions are 0.9000 and 0.9040.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited