LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: Technical analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of the week the pair reached local highs of 0.8890, after that trend shifted into ascending. Over the week the pair rose for more than 200 points, coming up very close to the level of 0.9110. However the pair failed to reach this level. Technical indicators show a chance of correction. Signal line of MACD indicator has left histogram and is directed downwards, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the middle zone, not giving a clear signal. However, all three moving average lines demonstrate continuation of growth. In case of correction, the pair may fall to 0.9035.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9080, 0.9065, 0.9050 and 09035. The nearest resistance levels: 0.9100 and 0.9110. Key level of the “bulls” is 0.9170.

Trading tips

In case of correction short positions can be placed below the level of 0.9080 with the target of 0.9030. Limit orders to buy are recommended at the same level.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: The pair continues to move in the ascending channel

Current trend

At the end of last week European currency had reached the local highs against the USD. The pair received strong support from both Mario Draghi, the head of European Central Bank, and from Investors. Chairman of ECB said that economic growth rate in Eurozone has significantly increased and the regulator raised the forecast of GDP growth this year up to 1.2%. By 2016 GDP is expected to grow up to 1.8%. He also noted that situation in the currency markets of Europe is stabilizing and there are no reasons to curtail program of securities purchase. All these facts had a positive effect on Euro rate; demand among investors helped the pair grow to the key resistance level of 1.3900. Attention today shall be also paid to investor confidence index in Eurozone and EU economic summit.

Support and resistance

Currently, the pair consolidates below key resistance level of 1.3900. However, later, following significant growth, the pair will shift to the downward correction and go to the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3800. After correction, ascending movement will resume. The pair will continue to trade in the wide ascending channel. All strong resistance levels have been broken down; therefore new targets are 1.4000 and 1.4120. Technical indicators confirm the forecast of further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line, directing upwards

Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3800, 1.3770, 1.3700 and 1.3630.
Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.4000 and 1.4120.


Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to place pending orders to buy from support levels of 1.3800 and 1.3820 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: Upward movement is going to resume

Current trend

Last week quotes of the currency pair NZD/USD had reached four-month highs at the level of 0.8523. However on Friday the price corrected to the level of 0.8442 following the release of positive American market statistics. It became known that number of new jobs outside agricultural sector amounted to 175 thousand in February, which was above the forecast. Labour market showed positive dynamics once again, triggering the rise in demand for the American currency.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trading near support level of 0.8455 (moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. This level seems to be the key one. In case of breakdown of this level, the price can continue to decline to 0.8425 and 0.8390. However it is more likely that upward movement will continue up to 0.8490 and 0.8.515. It should be noted that investors are waiting for the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where the decision to raise interest rate up to 2.75% can be adopted, which will lead to strengthening of the New Zealand currency.

Technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are rising. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are intersecting, turning up and forming a buy signal.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions from the level of 0.8465 with profit taking at 0.8490. Short positions can be opened if the price falls below the level of 0.8443.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Analysis and forecast

Current trend

The British Pound continues the decline against the USD that started on Monday. Due to lack of macro-economic statistics, the pair has lost over 100 points, as yesterday’s rapid growth has provided investors with attractive conditions to close long positions and take profit. Today, market participants are waiting for the data on industrial output in the manufacturing industry and volume industrial production in the UK in January. According to forecast, both indices will decline, which will put additional pressure on the Pound.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.6627, 1.6706 and 1.6740.
Support levels: 1.6623, 1.6590, 1.6570 and 1.6545.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms downtrend. MACD histogram is below the zero line and its volumes are increasing, giving a signal of further decline in exchange rate. It is likely that the price will continue to drop today. If current trend maintains, it is recommended to place short positions from the current level with the target of 1.6590. Breakdown of the level of 1.6590 will open the way to 1.6570.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: Review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the price of the pair AUD/USD dropped due to poor economic performance in China. It became known that exports in China fell by 18.1% in February and amounted to 114.1 billion USD. This news led to decline in price of AUD/USD to the local lows of 0.9009.
During today’s trading session Australian dollar tested the level of 0.9050. Uptrend has not been prevented even by the decrease in business sentiment index, as per National Australian Bank. Australian dollar did not fall significantly and is traded at the level of 0.9030.
As Australian dollar is a commodity currency, it can be affected by the decline in the world process of oil. Attention of the market participants is drawn to Crimean conflict, which seems to continue. However, unless there are serious events directly affecting energy supplies from Russia, events in Ukraine will not provide support to oil prices. On the other hand oil prices can be affected by the end of cold season.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance levels: 0.9063 (yesterday’s highs) 0.9134 (highs of March 7), 0.9168 (highs of December 10).
Support levels: 0.9009 (yesterday’s lows, 50.0% Fibonacci), 0.8965 (lows of March 6), 0.8890 (local lows of March 3).
On the daily chart indicators give mixed signals. MACD shows a buy signal, while Stochastic give a sell signal.

Trading tips

Sell orders can be placed from the level of 0.9009 with short-term target of 0.8965 and long-term target of 0.8890.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: The USD cannot prevent the rise in Euro

Current trend

Following significant rise at the end of last week, the pair EUR/USD turned to consolidation phase. During several days the pair has been slowly going down. On Tuesday key economic indices of Germany could not support the pair since, although payment balance was positive, trade balance showed decline. US data did not confirm positive forecasts: number of vacancies and inventories in the wholesale warehouses showed negative trend. Demand for Euro decreased; however additional fundamental drivers are required in order to change uptrend into downtrend. The data on volume of industrial production in Eurozone will become known today. Experts expect that this index will increase.

Support and resistance

Favourable data on volume of industrial production in Eurozone will provide support and the pair will be able to soar up to the recent local highs of 1.3915. In the medium-term demand for European currency will increase and Euro will continue to grow. Next target- is key resistance level of 1.4000. The rise may reach the highs of October at the level of 1.4250.

Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3800, 1.3770, 1.3700 and 1.3630.
Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3915, 1.4000, 1.4110 and 1.4250.


Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place pending buy orders from the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3800 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000 and short stop-loss at the level of 1.3750.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: Technical analysis

Current trend

At the end of last week the pair USD/JPY had reached local highs of 103.75 but failed to consolidate there, and at the closing session the pair fell to the level of 103.25. Until Tuesday the pair had traded in the narrow range, and then the price fell below the level of 103.00. Today, the pair USD/JPY tried to regain lost positions but was not able to overcome the line 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 102.90. Most technical indicators show the decline. Stochastic is above the middle zone, both of its lines are directed downwards, indicating further decline. Histogram and the signal line of MACD are in the negative zone; however the signal line is directed sideways, demonstrating a chance of correction. All three moving average lines are above the price chart, which is a signal of decline.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 102.90, 102.75, 102.60 and 102.50. The latter one is the key level of the “bears”. Resistance levels: 103.00, 103.10, 103.35 and 103.35.

Trading tips

The pair is likely to go down. Short positions can be placed below the level of 102.80. However, the pair may experience correction, and in this case it is recommended to place limit orders to sell at the level of 103.15.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Strong US data can support the USD

Current trend

At the beginning of this week the British currency has been declining. The Pound has been losing positions against the USD. First of all this was caused by significant decrease in demand for the Pound due to the fact that British currency was overbought and also by the fact that it was under pressure from the cross-pair EUR/GBP. Significant strengthening in Euro has drawn investors’ attention to European currency, triggering outflow of investments from British currency. Pair rate dropped to the recent local lows of 1.6600. At first it seemed that this level would be broken down and the price would fall to the level of 1.6570. However, after reaching this level, the price sharply went up. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.6660.
Important British news is not going to be released today. On Friday British trade balance will become known. US data, which will be released today, are as follows: import price index, retail sales, inventories and labour market.

Support and resistance

It is expected that American news will be positive and in such case the American dollar will go up, while the pair will continue to decline. In the medium-term demand for the US currency will increase and the pair will drop to the level of 1.6540 (1.6470).

Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470.
Resistance levels: 1.6660, 1.6700, 1.6730 and 1.6810.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6470.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/СHF: Franc is strengthening, while correction is approaching

Current trend

This week the currency pair USD/CHF continues to trade in the downtrend. Today, the price has reached the highs since October 2011 at the level of 0.8712. Even weak statistics from Switzerland and Eurozone was not able to stop the rise in Franc. In January retail sales in Switzerland fell to 0.3%, while volume of industrial output in Eurozone amounted to -0.2%. Obviously Swiss currency is supported by instability in political situation of Ukraine. Franc has always been a haven currency and any instability in the world triggers demand for this asset.

Support and resistance

In the near future the price will slowly decline to the levels of 0.8686 and 0.8640. Note that the pair seems to be oversold; therefore upward correction is quite possible.

Probability of upward correction is also confirmed by technical indicators. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence; however the price chart has broken the lower moving average indicating a chance of correction to the level of 0.8766. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are increasing. However between histogram and the price chart there are signs of “bearish convergence”, which shows probability of correction. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone, they can cross soon and go upward.

Important resistance levels: 0.8755, 0.8811 and 0.8873.
Important support levels: 0.8686 and 0.8660.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with profit taking at 0.8660. Long positions can be opened with the target of 0.8766, if the price goes above the level of 0.8735.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Uptrend will continue

Current trend

On Thursday European currency continued to grow against the American dollar amid high demand for Euro among investors. Initial momentum to significant rise was provided by the speech of Mario Draghi last week when he expressed optimism about future of European economy. The “bulls” pushed the pair to the new local highs and EUR/USD consolidated at this level. Additional support to Euro was provided by strong data on consumer price index in France. In the afternoon favourable data on US retail sales and labour market became known, but even the decrease of initial claims for unemployment benefits could not prevent the rise in European currency. Meanwhile, it was the time for Mario Draghi’s speech, and this time it was not so positive. He noted that deflation risks are still high and ECB is preparing new monetary policy measures to avoid these risks if needed. In addition the head of ECB said that high rate of Euro is not favourable for Eurozone. The speech by Mario Draghi forced many investors to transfer money to the less risky assets. Following his speech the price of EUR/USD sharply went to the level of 1.3850.

Support and resistance

Despite the speech of the chairman of ECB, a chance, that uptrend will continue, is very high. Demand for Euro is still high, while American statistics cannot provide support to the USD. In the medium-term the pair will continue to move in the ascending channel; in the near future the pair may decline to the lower limit of the channel at the level of 1.3800, and then will resume growth. Next target level is 1.4130 (1.4250).

Support levels: 1.3830, 1.3800, 1.3770 and 1.3700.
Resistance levels: 1.3960, 1.4050, 1.4130 and 1.4250.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place buy orders with profit taking at the level of 1.4130. In addition, it is also advisable to place pending buy orders from key resistance levels of 1.4130 (1.4250) with profit taking at the level of 1.4000 (1.3950).



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies