LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:40 am

GBP/USD: UK economic recovery will strengthen Pound

1. Current trend of GBP/USD

Thanks to favourable fundamental data the Pound has started the week with the rise. Construction PMI has increased up to the level of 57.2 points, exceeding the expectations. Besides, the demand for the Pound is growing stronger due to the economic recovery. The pair has bounced off the lower border of the price channel and is strengthening now.
Today we don’t expect high volatility because of the lack of important releases in trader’s calendar. Though at the beginning of the American session the attention should be paid to the Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending publications. On Thursday BOE interest rate will be released; experts predict that the rate will remain the same but Carney speech may support national currency.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

We expect the correction within the range of 1.5500-1.5600. On Thursday and Friday after US data release the pair will go down to the key support level 1.5500, and then GBP/USD will return to the rise. In medium-term scenario British currency will raise against Dollar.
On the daily chart the price has reached the lower border of the channel and is going to rise up to the level of 1.5750, in medium-term scenario — to 1.5880.

3. Best exit/entry points

I would recommend to open long trades with Take Profit orders at 1.5650, 1.5750. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5500 with targets at 1.5750; in medium-term scenario profit can be taken at the level of 1.5880.

4. Supporting facts

On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone under the signal line and is directed downwards, indicating downward correction and a possibility of further rise.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:42 am

USD/JPY: the pair will rise

1. Current trend of USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY has started the week with a rise gaining more than 100 points. The weakening of the Yen was caused by the fundamental data. Monetary base in Japan in August has reached the maximum since 1973 года, increasing by 42%. From the other hand American dollar has been supported by the suspension of military intervention in Syria. Obama waits for the Congress authorization.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

The pair is moving towards upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator; this line is a resistance level at 99.80. Today we expect the price to go up to the levels 99.80, 100.00 and 100.20. The pair can be strengthening by the US economic statistics. According to the experts, Construction Spending index will rise up to the 0,3%, and Manufacturing Prices index will decrease but still stay above the level of 50 points. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open long trades at the level of 99.60 and with targets around 100.20.

3. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the price chart is moving towards the upper line of the indicator. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards, forming a signal to sell.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:10 am

GBP/USD: Pound will strengthen
1. Current trend
This Tuesday British currency was slowly ascending. The currency was supported by high demand for the Pound and favourable data on Construction PMI. After US statistics release the Pound lost some of its positions. ISM Manufacturing PMI has increased, proving wrong pessimistic forecasts; Construction Spending index has also increased, indicating recovery of this sector. Last trading day GBP/USD has ended at 1.5550.
Today pound/dollar has started session with another rise and reached the level of 1.5590, regardless forecasts of Services PMI decrease. Investors’ attention is drawn to the GDP data and Retail Sales publications. In USA Trade Balance and Crude Oil Inventories are going to be released today.

2. Support and resistance


GBP/USD is under pressure of Dollar strengthening and the end of seasonal recess. However British economy is recovering, national currency is rising and the potential of growth is still strong. This Friday we can witness a little pull-back if labour market data from USA is positive, but then Pound will rise again.

Technical and fundamental factors predict further rise to the levels 1.5750 and 1.5880. The pair is trading now at the lower border of the uprising channel and is going to move towards its upper border at 1.5880.


3. Exit/entry points
Long positions can be opened at current price with Take profit orders at 1.5650 and 1.5750. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5500 with targets at 1.5750, in medium-term scenario profit should be taken at 1.5880.

4. Technical indicators
On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone under signal line and is directed upwards, indicating the end of the downward correction and further rise.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:13 am

Brent: review

1. Current trend

The rate of the crude oil Brent is depends on the Middle East situation. Yesterday’s reports of missile launch in Mediterranean caused the raise of the Brent rate up to the level $115.90. Later it was confirmed, that the launch was a test of Israel anti-missile defense system.
Though Brent stays rather high, we don’t expect a decline any time soon. Unclear situation with Syrian conflict will support the instrument. President Obama decided to get official authorization of the military intervention from the Congress. Though congressmen will work on the question on 9th of September after the end of summer recess.

2. Support and resistance
Support levels: 115.10, 113.60, 112.20.
Resistance levels: 116.50, 117.80.




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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:12 am

XAG/USD: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend
This week silver has been trading with high volatility. On Wednesday the price has reached one-week highs at 24.47, but on Thursday it went back to the level of 23.40.


2. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands are almost horizontal. The price is moving within descending channel towards the lower line of the indicator. Further fall down to the level of 23.10 is expected. MACD histogram is in oversold zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are in overbought zone (20), but the signal to sell hasn’t been formed yet.
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On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the price is moving towards MA at 23.10. If the level is broken through the pair will go further down. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, but it has crossed the signal line from above, givig a signal to sell. Stochactic’s line K% has crossed D% line from above, giving another signal to sell.

3. Trading tips

According to technical analysis we should expect the fall down to the levels 23.10, 22.65 and even 22.20. Short positions can be opened at current price with Take Profit orders at 22.65.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:27 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

1. Current trend
The pair is growing with the support of lower border of the channel. The price chart has crossed middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, forming a signal to buy. Economic calendar is full of fundamental releases that could push Euro up. Investors expect the statistics from US to be negative. Non-Farm Employment Change rate may decrease to 175 000. Unemployment claims will increase a little. Factory Orders index and Non-Manufacturing PMI are also worth attention. In Europe traders are waiting for the Mario Draghi press conference, he should determine future monetary policy, though analysts believe the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.5%. Another factor that may affect the price is US Congress authorization of military intervention in Syria.



2. Support and resistance
The support level is at 1.3187, close to the middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator. The resistance level will be at the local maximum (1.3218).

3. Technical indicators
Signal line of the MACD indicator has left the histogram zone and is directed upwards, giving a signal to buy.

4. Trading tips
Regarding yesterdays releases from USA I would recommend to find entry points to sell and open short trades with targets at 1.3063. Pending sell orders can be placed at 1.3218 and 1.3251

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:15 am

«Gazprom»: general analysis

At the beginning of the session “Gazprom” bonds have risen by 0.95%. The nearest resistance level is 133.75. Long positions should be opened after the breakdown of the resistance and consolidation of the price above it.
The market is under pressure of Syrian conflict. President Obama soon can get the authorization of the US Congress to strike. Though the intervention hasn’t been approved yet, the rates of precious metals and crude oil are growing.
The question of US quantitive easing program is still unanswered. Head of FRB of Minneapolis stated that the programs should be expended, not curtailed, due to the unstable economic growth.
The main fundamental factors for today are official bank rates in UK and EU. I assume the interest rates will remain at the same level. From the other side of the Atlantic we anticipate labour market data.





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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 06, 2013 10:16 am

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of USD/JPY

This week the pair USD/JPY has been slowly strengthening; today the price has hit two-month highs at the level of 100.20. Then the pair has been corrected ant is now trading around middle MA (99.70) of Bollinger Bands indicator.
The Yen has been supported by the increase in Leading Indicators by 0.6%. Today investors are waiting for the US labour market data. If unemployment rate decreases and Non-Farm Employment Change index increases, the pair will start to grow.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

If fundamental data from USA supports the pair, the price will go all the way up to the upper border of the channel at 100.20. Downwards correction can happen at this level. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open long trades at the level of 99.80 with targets at 100.20.

3. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger Bands become horizontal; the price chart can bounce off the middle MA and go up. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards, giving a signal to sell.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 06, 2013 10:23 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line and they are both directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1380.97). One of the previous minimums of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1473.60.

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XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud remains ascending. Tenkan-sen (1353.07) and Kijun-sen (1397.91) lines become resistance and support levels respectively.

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Key levels

Support levels: 1361.20, 1397.91.
Resistance levels: 1380.97, 1353.07.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart Ichimoku lines indicate the development of downward movement. However, there is no sign of trend reversal on the daily chart. Long-term short positions can be opend after breakdown of the level of 1397.91.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 06, 2013 10:28 am

GBP/USD: US statistics will weaken the Pound

1. Current trend of GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD is trading within an ascending channel. The Pound is falling today due to the decrease of UK Industrial Production index in July down to 0.2% and rise of the Trade Balance deficit up to 9.9 billion pounds. If US labour market statistics are positive, we will witness further fall of the pair. Non-Farm Employment index can increase by 16 000, and unemployment rate will remain the same – 7.4%.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

From the technical analysis point of view the price has broken through the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and is moving towards its lower line at 1.5540. If this level is also broken, the pair will go all the way down to the lower border of the channel at 1.5460. An uprising correction can reach the level of 1.5590. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open short positions at current price with targets around 1.5460.

3. Technical indicators

Technical indicators on the four-hour chart confirm the possibility of the fall. Bollinger Bands are going to be horizontal, the price chart is moving towards the lower line of the indicator (1.5540). MACD histogram is in overbought zone and is going to cross the signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. Stochastic lines are directed downwards and are going to enter oversold zone (20).

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