Project Summary :
Duration: 08 Months , 03Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]245 | 4
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3
22 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Cyprus trotting for banks has start taking shape:
The Euro zone, particular the Troika has now given Cyprus the ultimatum timeline, either to accept the austerity measure as set out last Saturday in return for 10 billion Euro. What a debacle this is and as of now Cypriots are lining up at ATM to withdraw their daily maximum allow, just grab what they can in case they banks decided to go for Long Service Leave and there are talks that some banks have now even lower the daily limits withdrawal as well. They must have been running low on the cold hard cash in their vault. Also, there are business in Cyprus even refuse to accept Credit Card payment for goods purchase as well and so Credit cards holders are now just holding on a piece of plastic that have no value for the time being.
Now, what’s so frustrating is the fact that they were aware of deterioration in Cyprus banking system for sometimes yet just keep blind eyes and hope it would go away. Yet, about 1 ½ years ago, the ECB officials did the bank Stress Test on the Cyprus 3 biggest banks and they all passed the Test and now the 2 biggest banks, namely Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank are on the brink of collapse. What does that tell you? Either the Cypriots cooked the books or the ECB officials that carried out the Test must be incompetently “numb nuts”......or perhaps there was a collusion of conspiracy between them.
Going into the weekend, many of traders intensely watch out for any development and what will be unfold next Monday. As far as we concern, Whatever the outcome eventuate this weekend the FX market going to be a rough ride after this weekend as we all know the Equities markets has been under the burner since beginning of 2013 that rally on lack of volumes and definitely there are bears lurking around, waiting for opportunity to bounce on and this Cyprus debacle could happens to be the catalyst that they were looking for.
Impact News today:
05:00 am (NY) EUR – German Business Climate
Technical Analysis:
Seriously, the last 2 weeks has been most difficult trading conditions of all, unless you are scalping. Prices swinging up and down by the minutes with no definitive trending so we were reluctant to take on news trade beside the pairs we already hold for the medium terms and we advise you just to be patient as things is slowly working in our favour.
It’s hard to understand what cause the up moved in the AUD yesterday but let us try to put up few scenarios to you, just food for thoughts folks. Ok, as things happening in Cyprus there maybe capital flights slowly taking place and Australia, with the low sovereignty risk yet attractive with higher Interest Rate than any developed countries and one of a few country that is still carrying a AAA rating. Therefore, if there is going to be capitals flight looking for refuge, Australia no doubt would be a very attractive destination. On technical side, we can see that since the beginning of the week AUDUSD has been trading side way between the 50 – 61.8% Fib levels and many of traders could have taking Short positions after the pair closed the Gap with tight Stops, a perfect set up for Market Makers doing Stop Hunts. If we look at H4 chart we can see that, yesterday we had a bullish candle that break out of the Resistance and halted after about 50 pips higher and that’s probably would have clean out lots of Stops. Now, if it was truly just Stop Hunts then prices will probably fully reverse course today and runs lower. If prices close below yesterday H4 bullish candle then it confirmed our view and AUDUSD will start its journey down.
In another technical view, if this breakout to the upside is genuine then it could have lots more to go with next target of 1.0550. Therefore our entry that was triggered yesterday, we will scale down our stop to about 8 pips above yesterday high. We also cancelled our pending Sell Stop on the pair but will add on to our position if prices pullback and trades below yesterday low.
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AUDCAD – Same scenario with this pair. Yesterday, a bullish candle managed to reach the top of the bullish wedge and triggered our 2nd entry, base on Divergence on Daily and Continuous Divergence on H4 . Now, on Daily prices has been in the overbought mode for sometimes and is in the process of forming Negative Divergence on Daily while on H4 we had have Continuous Negative Divergence. Note, prices is trading close to last year high (1.0775). Our stop on this pair will be about 65 pips above last year high. We are looking for this pair to correct and if prices break down below the wedge then 1st target will be the Daily uptrend support with 2nd target is the weekly uptrend line (Purple).
[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-22Mar2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg"][/url]
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