Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:32 am

30 NOVEMBER 2012: ASIAN STOCKS AND EURO TRADE STRONGER

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Telecommunications and health stocks were the winners in New York last night as Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose marginally. The Dow Jones industrial average passed the 13 000 mark and seems to end the week in positive territory. Investors were buying on sporadic dips roiled by conflicting comments from Washington about negotiations on a budget compromise to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, fear for a combination of budget cuts and tax hikes. Wall Street reversed early gains and fell after the Speaker of the House, leading Republican John Boehner, dashed hopes that lawmakers were getting closer to a deal. It picked up at greater optimism for a compromise at the end of the session. The extreme volatility in the markets is probably continuing as long with the stalemate in Congress.

Stock markets in Europe ended in positive territory yesterday on initial compromise optimism from both President Obama and the House Speaker Wednesday night. The exchanges in Asia started the trading day on a positive note. Asian shares rose to a nine-month peak Friday morning. Japan’s industrial output rose unexpectedly 1,8 percent in October, up for the first time in four months. This along with a new announced stimulus package from the Japanese government helped Nikkei win 0,8%. Also the Shanghai and Taiwan bourses produced healthy gains. The mining giant Rio Tinto is up 3 percent upon presenting savings and restructuring measures worth USD 5 billion.

Japanese yen is losing on the stimulus plans after gaining against the dollar earlier in the week. USD/JPY is trading at 82,45 well inside the newly established 81 – 83 corridor. Euro/USD is again stronger at 1.2999 up 50 points from yesterday’s start. The euro reached 1.3015 on Thursday, the highest level seen since 31st October. The euro is helped by the bail-out package for Greece. It is expected that a skeptical German parliament will approve the support for Greece in a vote today. This will probably give the euro a new temporary boost.

The US government said yesterday that third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 2,7 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since late 2011. Export growth help offset weakest consumer spending and the first drop in business investment in more than a year. Brent crude is trading at USD 110, 49 a barrel marginally up from Thursday. US crude futures, NYMEX, is falling 0,4 percent. Increased tensions and escalating violence in Syria and Egypt are stoking permanent fear of oil supply disruptions. Gold has gained back 20 dollars from yesterday’s steep fall and trades at 1727. Silver is at USD 34,20 an ounce, the same level as seen at the peak earlier in the week.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:30 am

03 DECEMBER 2012: EURO AND ASIA RISE ON CHINESE MANUFACTURING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Euro/USD rose to 1.3048 and Asian stocks jumped to a nine-month high on further signs of a stabilizing Chinese economy boosted investor’s risk appetite. China’s vast manufacturing sector quickened in November for the first time in 13 months. HSBC bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Survey, PMI, rose to 50,5. A further evidence that the Chinese economy is picking up after quarters of slowing growth. China’s official PMI was even higher at 50,6. An official PMI for the non-manufacturing sector reached 55,6 led by construction services.

The upbeat Chinese manufacturing data helped the Euro reach a six-week high against the dollar. The Euro was also strengthened by Angela Merkel’s careful remarks that Germany, in a medium, longer term perspective, might consider to write off Greek’s debt if the country succeeds in getting its house in order.

The rhetoric on the “fiscal cliff” increased during the weekend when Democrats and Republicans went on the air to trade accusations on whom are mostly to blame for the budget stalemate. This also helped the euro. In spite that there still seem to be a huge distance to cross before any budget deal sight is in sight, markets nevertheless seem to have discounted a compromise. All asset classes posted gains in November with higher appetite for securities. Security markets except the Shanghai composite rose.

The Japanese Nikkei continues to rise on a lower yen and expectations for monetary easing after the parliamentarian elections in mid-December. The dollar steadied at 82,40 yen not far from the 82,84 yen touched on November 22. Speculators have over the last weeks boosted a short yen position which was at its highest since May 2007.

US, NYMEX crude and Brent futures are inching up at 89,16 and 111,57 respectively. Copper gained 0,3 percent to USD 8018 a metric ton. Gold is slightly up to 1719 on a weaker dollar. The DXY dollar index against a basket of major currencies are down 0,2 percent.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:31 am

04 DECEMBER 2012: WALL STREET FALLS ON WEAK DATA

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Manufacturing activity in the United States surprisingly contracted in November, dropping to its lowest level in three years. The fiscal cliff remains, however, investors’ primary focus. The political haggling over how to deal with large automatic spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to kick in at the beginning of the new year, threatens to threw the US economy into new recession. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell back after three straight winning days for the US indexes. The S&P index which composes an average of US stocks, are in spite of yesterday’s weakness still up 12, 1 percent in 2012, making stocks one of the assets classes winners.

Asian bourses and the Japanese Nikkei edged down in early Tuesday trading when the weak US data triggered profit-taking on exporters. The US economy is key to the fortunes of Japanese exporters which rely heavily on consumption in the world biggest economy. Asian markets got a boost over the weekend when the Chinese economy demonstrated healthy manufacturing data and strong signals for a rebound. Yesterday’s gains were eaten by a new cold shower from the US. The Japanese yen which recently has fallen against the USD, fluctuated heavily yesterday. After USD/JPY had traded at its lowest levels in weeks, JPY recovered strongly on the weak US manufacturing data. It is now trading at 82,10.

The Euro/USD is still strong. It rose to 1.3076 during yesterday’s trading, the highest level seen since October 22. The Euro dropped against yen after rising to a seven-month high on 107,67 on Monday. A Greek bond buyback scheme at 65 – 70 % reduction of nominal value has attracted interest and also strengthened the common currency. There are small changes in other currency pairs. Australian dollar is stabile against yen and USD, and the Scandinavian currencies are demonstrating strength both against USD and Euro. EURO/USD is trading at 1.3054 at present.

Oil prices are down. Brent crude has tipped down a dollar to 110,54. Precious metals are also trading lower. After recovering from end of last week’s steep fall from 1750-level to 1707, gold traded at 1721 yesterday. This morning gold has dropped down to 1703, a fall of 15 dollar an ounce.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:40 am

05 DECEMBER 2012: OBAMA STAYS FIRM ON TAXES FOR RICH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


President Barack Obama held his ground on the “fiscal cliff” Tuesday. In an interview with Bloomberg Television Obama stressed that no budget compromise was possible without the wealthiest Americans paying their fair share of common expenses. With less than a month left to confront budget cuts and tax increases that will take effect from January 1st unless Congress acts, Republicans seem increasingly in disarray over how far to go to compromise with Obama’s demands. In the interview Obama took a conciliatory tone, but excluded any further tax burdens on an embattled middle class.

The insecurity over whether total budget cuts and tax hikes amounting to USD 300 billion would be implemented in some few weeks’ time, has severely affected markets. Wall Street finished slightly lower in a quiet session with thin trading volumes. Hewlett Packard recovering from last week’s onslaught when its share prices dropped 15 % in one day, was together with Intel who announced a buy-back of own shares, the winners.

Asian shares rose Wednesday led by surging Chinese equities. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were up 0,6 percent. Shanghai shares surged 3 percent to reclaim the 2000 point level. Hong Kong shares jumped 1,3 percent. Nikkei also inched up on a statement from Bank of Japan confirming willingness for more aggressive monetary easing. USD/JPY which during yesterday’s trading strengthened substantially and reached 81,75, fell back in morning trade to 82,25 supporting exporters.

Better than expected terms for Greek bonds buy-back plan raised optimism that Athens will secure much needed emergency aid to avert a default. The news took the euro/USD above 1.32 levels for the first time in months. The Euro was also helped by Obama’s statements that weakened the dollar and increased risk sentiments. Gold saw a new set-back and fell to 1685. It has recovered to 1701 in morning trade. Oil prices have as well recovered from yesterday’s lows. Brent crude is up 0,2 % trading above USD 110 a barrel.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Dec 06, 2012 7:34 am

06 DECEMBER 2012: NOKIA CAUSES FALL IN APPLE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


US stocks ended mostly higher on Wednesday. Dow Jones gained 0,64 percent and is again trading above 13 000. Nasdaq ended in red after the largest US company by market capitalization, Apple, swallowed its biggest fall In share prices in four years. Apple fell 6 percent and is down more than 20 percent from an all-time high reached in late September. Market participants cited a host of reasons for the drop; the company is losing share in the tablet market and NOKIA joining ranks with China’s biggest smart phone maker will give Apple a tough fight on the Chinese market.

Banking shares went higher led by Citigroup which jumped 6,3 % on a 10 000 employees or 4 % cut in its workforce. Cyclical shares closely tied to economic growth, also rallied on optimism on progress on a solution to avoid the fiscal cliff. Obama met with business chief executives in Washington and stressed readiness for a compromise if Republicans acknowledged the need to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. If the Republicans demonstrate such willingness, a budget deal can be reached within a week. The Republican is under strong pressure not at least from their own constituencies and; cracks in the ranks and possible “defectors” are likely to appear.

In England the Finance minister, George Osborne presented a new austerity budget to the House of Commons admitting that to have fallen short to obtain former set targets set. The budget proposal is most probably going to raise a new heated debate on whether austerity measures as practiced in England, Greece and other Western European countries are the right medicine to fight sovereign debt, trade and budget deficits. “Osborne has no more tricks to play”, commented one of the biggest British dailies.

Obama’s “fiscal cliff” comments created optimism in Asia where shares rose to a 16-month high. The Japanese Nikkei climbed 0,8 percent helped by a weaker yen. USD/JPY trades at 82,45. Euro/USD eased to 1.3054 after reaching a seven-week high of USD 1.3127 Wednesday. A disappointing Spanish bond auction reminded investors of the fragile fiscal health both of Spain and inside the euro zone and prompted a sell-off in the single currency. The markets are today waiting for the European Central Bank’s policy decision and US labor market report tomorrow.

Oil prices have fallen over the last 24 hours. Brent crude is one dollar down and trades below USD 109 a barrel. Gold is under downward pressure and tested the lows for the week at USD 1685 an ounce yesterday.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:23 am

07 DECEMBER 2012: EURO FALLS ON BLEAK OUTLOOK

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The European Central Bank, ECB’s, bleak outlook for the euro zone presented at a press conference yesterday, created turbulence in the currencies markets. The euro/USD fell to its lowest level in one week at 1.2969, down 150 basis points from its high on Wednesday. The fall in the Euro has worsened by the political development in Italy where Silvio Berlusconi’s Freedom Party withdrew its support for the technocrat government of Prime Minister Mario Monti. This immediately put pressure also on Italian bonds.

The main trigger for the sharply negative euro reaction was the mention of a “wide discussion over rate cuts. ECB President Mario Draghi said policymakers had considered cutting its main 0,75 % policy rate before deciding to leave it on hold. Draghi added that the ECB also “operationally was ready for negative rates”. This caused the euro to tumble and led biggest one-day loss in the single currency in one month.

The Euro fell steeply also against yen and other currencies. USD/JPY is urging up at 82,48. The slid in the Euro helped push the dollar index, DXY, up to 80,236 rebounding from a six week low of 79,58. Investors’ eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls report to be published later today. A sharp slowdown in employment growth IS expected due to the disruptions caused by super storm Sandy.

Asian shares touched fresh 16-months on Friday following modest gains in global equities as investors watched progress in US budget talks. Recent indicators suggesting stabilized growth in China has helped improve sentiments in Asia. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares rose 0,6 percent and has gained 17 percent during 2012. Hong Kong shares reached a 16-month high. In the US a rebound in Apple helped boost technology shares on quiet exchanges.

Oil prices fell heavily yesterday. Brent crude tipped below USD 107 a barrel, but has recovered somewhat. Gold is again trading above USD 1700 an ounce.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:15 am

10 DECEMBER 2012: ASIAN SHARES FIRM ON US OPTIMISM

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian stocks stayed firm at its 16-month high Monday morning as better growth outlook for US and China gave raise to modest optimism. This came after US consumer confidence plunged in early December as fear over imminent tax raises and spending cuts, the fiscal cliff, outweighed the better than expected raise in non-farm payrolls job data. Unemployment fall from 7,9 to 7,7 % in November adding 146 000 new jobs suggests a modest momentum in US economy. The drop in unemployment figures is, however, mainly due to 350 000 people leaving the labor market.

The Asia Pacific share index rose 0,3 percent. The index was up 1 percent last week for its third successive weekly gain. Regional Asian market was Sunday further boosted when China reported a pick-up in factory output and retail sales after stagnating for seven quarters. Chinese exports and imports were, however, delivering below forecast presenting a mixed picture.

The Euro/USD continues to slide. Euro reached a two week low of 1.2876 on Friday after the German central back warned that Germany, the biggest economy inside the euro zone, might soon enter into recession. The Euro is at present trading at 1.2893. The pro Euro Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, announced during the weekend that his government will withdraw. That will put the Euro under increased pressure. The development in ten-year Italian bonds which are seen as a main confidence barometer for investors shall be closely followed today.

The American dollar is up 0,3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Commodity markets led by copper are generally firmer on expectation of stronger Chinese industrial demand. Oil prices are stabilizing after falling steeply last week. Brent crude trades at USD 107,40 a barrel. Gold (1706) and silver (33,14) are up from Friday.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:45 am

11 DECEMBER 2012: EUROPEAN LEADERS URGE MONTI TO STAY

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


EU leaders urged the next Italian government to stick to Mario Monti’s reform agenda after the Prime Minister’s surprise decision to resign earlier than expected. Silvio Berlusconi’s return to front-line politics rattled the financial markets in Europe. Ten year Italian bonds, a good barometer on investor’s confidence, fell to 4,75 percent. EURO/USD also fell well below 1,29 on Monday, but has since recovered and trades at 1.2942 in early Asian trading.

Monti’s surprise weekend announcement came after Berlusconi’s People of Freedom Party withdraw its support for his technocrat government which over the last year has brought some predictability back to Italian politics. Monti, a former EU-Commissioner, has been seen as Brussels’ man and enjoy strong support from Germany’s Angela Merkel. Monti is a strong supporter of the Euro in contrast to Berlusconi who is seen as a Euro skeptic. Italian shares fell along with bonds yesterday. New elections are scheduled for February.

In the US political haggling over the “fiscal cliff” continues with no solution in sight as the clock is ticking closer to the 31st December deadline. US indexes ended flat with low turn-over. Asian stocks are marginally up. Australian stocks gained 0,4 percent on stronger commodity prices and better prospects for China. The Japanese Nikkei dropped after successive days of gain. A 10 % rally over the last month has worried investors as see signs of over buying.

The dollar firmed against Yen trading at 82,40. JPY is also under pressure by expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Oil prices were up during yesterday’s trade. Brent crude reached USD 108 a barrel, but has as gold and precious metals fallen back in early Asian trade. Brent trades at 107,25 and gold has dropped from 1715 to 1708.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:56 am

12 DECEMBER 2012: WORLD STOCK MARKETS GROW ON POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS FROM FRS MEETING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The stock market in the USA has finished trading session rising on positive expectations concerning results of negotiations of politicians about reduction of state expenses and a country budget deficit. Index Dow Jones reached level of 13248.44 and added 0.59%, S&P increased for 0.65%.

Today in Vienna the next meeting of the countries of exporters of oil of OPEC will take place. Main question: discussion of quotas of oil production. According to Platts agency the cartel extracts 31,08 million barrels per day at a quota in 30 million. There will not be eventual influence on an environment of the oil market. This morning the oil futures are adding in price with Brent traded on 106.90 and Light on 86.35.

In India industrial production in October grew by 8,2%, increase for 4,5% was expected. In the last three months the government of India undertook a number of measures for attraction to the country of foreign investments, and also developed the steps directed on maintenance of internal demand and export. The reserve bank of India also tries to support economic growth and, in particular, gave a feeling that can reduce the main rates in the next quarter.

Democratic People's Republic of Korea carried out Ynkha-3 rocket start with an artificial Earth satellite "Kvanmenson-3". This is the second attempt then North Korea was trying to send the satellite on orbit, the rocket firing which taken place in April has ended with a failure. Japan regarded rocket start as violation of the international norms and decisions. Special session of UN Security Council on start of "Ynkhi-3", which Japan demanded to carry out, can pass already today.

Euro grows the second day in relation to dollar after the report showed that the trust of the German investors grew in December to a 7-month maximum. The German index of economic expectations of ZEW in December unexpectedly jumped up from -15,7 points to positive value in 6,9 points though -12 points were expected. This morning EUR/USD managed to stabilize above level of 1.30 and is traded on a level 1.3001.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:35 am

13 DECEMBER 2012: BERNANKE UNDERMINED ENTHUSIASM OF BULLS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Investors finally got the most awaited news of a December after FRS announced its decisions. Results of meeting were quite expected: was made the decision on repayment of state bonds with longer circulation periods for $45 billion. Plus to it will remain the QE3 program of $40 billion a month. Total $85 billion a month.

And the markets fell into thoughtfulness: in fact, FRS finally undersigns that constant injections is the only thing that can help economy and a financial system. The debt market reacted to it with the sales of treasures - rates on 10-year bonds grew to 1,7%. Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P500 could not continue its upward development and were closed practically at a zero level.

EUR/USD tested a reasonable demand from the very beginning of trading day though it is impossible to tell that movements had large-scale character. The British positive data gave optimism; however confusion with the Greek debt and expectation of the next meeting of Ministers of Finance of Europe limited growth, but further publication of the accompanying statement of FOMC which has coincided with expectations of the QE expansion led the prices to a maximum of 1,3097. This morning EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3082.

Today the Japanese yen is again sharply weakening and bargains on the minimum levels since spring of the current year against euro and dollar. Dynamics of yen also gives support to the Japanese market, helping to show a steady growth. Pair yesterday from levels of opening 82,53 broke through higher than 83,00, reached a maximum 83,29 and was rolled away to the area 83,20 on closing. This morning, we can already see USD/JPY traded on a level of 83.61. There is not much time left till elections, so movements will be warmed up upward not only with USD strengthening, but also on expectations on political change in Japan.

Prices of oil following the results of last trading session showed positive dynamics. The OPEC countries following the results of the meeting on Wednesday, as expected, kept a quota of oil production at former level - 30 million barrels a day. At the same time, the OPEC plans to reduce gradually raw materials production to correspond to the designated quota. Today Brent crude bargains with fall, losing 0,23% to level of closing of previous day.

Prices for metals and precious metals are strongly falling, gold is losing more than 1% and traded on a level of 1699.38; silver is on a level of 32.97 and decreasing for 2.40%.

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