Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:30 am

16 NOVEMBER 2012: BEAR MOOD DO NOT RECEDE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The American indexes once again finished trading session in a red zone. Frankly speaking, we have seen so much negative information yesterday that it was possible to expect even more considerable falling. The main headache for investors still is a fiscal cliff.

Today the president of the United States will meet congressmen, and in common they will try to find a way out of current situation. Might be markets will get an occasion to grow up following the results of a meeting. However yesterday’s fears were not limited only to a general picture in the markets. Right after an election of the president in the United States statistics started to spoil. Yesterday was presented very bad data on a primary requests for an unemployment benefit in the USA. Growth of requests made 78 thousand, even slightly more than 20 thousand were expected, the total number of requests made 439 thousand. It is a lot, and raises a reasonable question that so strongly changed in the employment market literally for few weeks.

Besides macroeconomic data there was a weak reporting from Wal-Mart. Business of the largest retailer, many investors consider, as an advancing indicator. Nevertheless, despite this negative, the American markets lost within only 0,2-0,3%.

The trading in the commodities market is stable; Brent grows to 108.1 dollars for barrel, NYMEX decreases to 85.6 dollars for barrel. A favorable factor for growth of the oil prices is the statistics which came yesterday on the fuel market in the USA: so, stocks of crude oil grew to 1.09 million barrels contrary to expectations in 2 million; reduction of stocks of oil products made 2.54 million barrels - was expected 1 million. Continuing conflict in the Middle East will also support growth of oil prices. According to the information from HAMAS, the Air Force of Israel struck the next series of blows to the Gaza this morning.

Precious metals are weak this morning, Silver is losing more than 1% and traded at 32.34, Platinum at 1560.59, Gold is stable at 1712.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:55 am

19 NOVEMBER 2012: ASIA UP AS USD/JPY TRADES AT SEVEN-MONTH LOW

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


USD/JPY fell to a seven-month low against the dollar trading at 81,166 as Asian shares rose, boosted by a more positive tone in US equities last week and on expectations that next month’s Japanese elections will bring a new stimulus friendly government. MSCIs broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0,6 percent, recovering from Friday’s nine-week low. The energy sector outperformed on mounting supply concerns following the development in Gaza with Israeli air strikes and Hamas rocket attacks underpinning oil prices. Brent crude trades at 109,50. NYMEX is at 87,57.

Most markets under-performed last week. There are, however, hopes that US negotiations around the fiscal situation may progress and improve prospect for the stock markets. Japan’s Nikkei surged 2,2 percent Friday and bucked the downtrend in broad Asia. It has extended the gains this morning. Nikkei is 1,3 percent up and trades at a two-month high helped a weaker Yen and expectations that 16th December elections shall bring a new government ready to call for stimulus and a more aggressive easing from the Central Bank of Japan.

Hope that US politicians would find a common ground to steer clear of the “fiscal cliff”, boosted US stocks on Friday. European stocks, however, sank to its lowest level seen since May on US “fiscal cliff” concerns and the euro zone debt crisis. US treasury yields fell to its lowest levels in over two months on Friday as skepticism over the US budget talks drew safe-haven bids. Lawmakers, however, hinted at a possible budget compromise involving budget cuts and tax revenues.

The dollar is still strong after hitting a two month high in early Friday trading against a basket of six major currencies. The drop in Gold helped precious metals. Gold is trading 10 dollar up at 1723. Silver is 32,60 after dipping below 32 on Friday. The Euro rose to 1.2772 on Friday on expectations that the International Monetary Fund, IMF and euro zone finance ministers shall agree on how to make Greece’s debt more manageable. A bundled aid package to avert a Greek default may create a relief rally in the Euro. Euro/USD is at present trading at 1.2762. The short and medium term outlook for the Euro is, however, still bearish.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:02 am

20 NOVEMBER 2012: BUDGET TALK’S OPTIMISM SPURS WALL STREET RALLY

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Stocks rallied for a second consecutive session on Monday after budget talks created optimism that Democrats and Republicans would be able to tackle the fiscal crunch and avoid tipping over the “fiscal cliff”. The optimism spilled over to the Asian markets where the Nikkei share average in Tokyo extended its rise into a fifth day in morning trades. The gains were limited by profit taking and Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) awaited policy decision later in the session. It is expected that BOJ will keep policy unchanged. The Asian-Pacific index, MSCI, rose 0,6 percent.

The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies moving away from the two-month high reached on Friday. Precious metals jumped 3 percent on Monday on the dollar’s retreat. Gold reached 1735 and silver trade up close to a dollar on 33.20. USD/JPY is trading at 81.25. Oil prices have increased substantially on tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude reached its highest price level for weeks trading above USD 111 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, is sniffing on the 90 level.

Wall Street stocks climbed almost 2 percent extending a rally started on Friday. The rise reflected investors’ view that US lawmakers will be able to reach a compromise to avert USD 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January. This so called “fiscal cliff” threatens to send the US back into recession.

Prospects that Greece will get a lifeline to stay solvent also helped boost markets. The international rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded France’s government bond rating to A1 and kept a negative outlook on the country’s uncertain fiscal outlook and deteriorating economic prospects. The downgrade put the Euro under pressure. Euro/USD fell from a two week high on 1.2810 on Monday to 1.2777 in early Asian trade. It has regained and trades at present on 1.2796.

The Euro zone finance ministers are expected to give a tentative go-ahead for the disbursement of 44 billion euro in emergency loans to Greece later today. Differences between the finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on how to tackle the Greek crisis, however, remain, and a positive decision shall in no sway be taken for granted.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:38 am

21 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO FALLS ON INCONCLUSIVE GREEK TALKS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Euro/USD is falling 50 points to 1.2757 after Euro finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to reach agreement on a Greek bail-out package. While the EU seems to have been willing to extend with two years the deadline for carrying through austerity measures, IMF was sticking to 2020. Without a consensus emergency aid cannot be disbursed to Greece.

The inconclusive talks helped destroy the positive investor’s sentiment which has been built up over the last days. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke also talked US stock markets down when he yesterday stated that the Federal Reserve could do nothing to soften the “fiscal cliff”. Dow Jones fell within minutes more than 100 points upon Bernanke’s statement. He added, however, that 2013 might be a bright year for markets if Congress is able to find a compromise between budget cuts and tax hikes. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq recovered and ended the session flat.

Hewlett Packard, one of the bedrock companies of Silicon Valley, and for decades seen as synonymous with technical excellence and innovation, stunned markets with an alleged massive accounting scandal at its British software unit, Autonomy. Serious accounting improprieties came to light after a whistle-blower come forward after the ouster of one of the companies top executives. HP shares plunged with 12 percent and reached a 10-year low. The market value of HP has fallen from $ 155 billion in 2000 to $ 20 billion after yesterday’s “massacre”.

Oil prices fell yesterday afternoon on strong rumors on a truce between Israel and Hamas on Gaza. Expectations for a ceasefire, rose, however, when US secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, arrived to Jerusalem last night to seek an end to one week of fighting. Brent crude trades at 110,03. Gold prices also fell yesterday trading at 1723 down from Tuesday’s peak on 1735. Asian stocks fell for the second day in row on the disappointing news of a failed emergency aid pay out to Greece. The Japanese Nikkei-index is up 0,44 % on a weaker Yen. USD/JPY trades at 81,905.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Nov 22, 2012 4:47 am

22 NOVEMBER 2012: GREEK EXPECTATIONS TAKES EURO HIGHER

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


German Chancellor Angela Merkel breathed new life into the Euro yesterday when she stated that a deal on the Greek emergency package was still within reach when Euro finance ministers meet on Monday. The Euro hit a 6-1/2 month high against the yen which continue to fall on expectations of more forceful monetary easing in Japan. Euro/USD is also stronger trading at 1.2844.

Investors initially dumped the Euro after Euro finance ministers and IMF, International Monetary Fund, failed to reach a compromise on release of emergency aid for Greece Tuesday night. Merkel’s comments turned the downward trend around. Euro last traded up 1 percent at 105,94 yen. The dollar has over the last seven trading sessions gained 3,9 percent against yen. USD/JPY stands at present at 82,38 giving Japanese exporters a welcomed boost. Yen is broadly falling against other currencies including the Australian dollar.

Analysts are expecting the yen to continue weakening into the Japanese elections in the middle of December. Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) firm intention for asset purchases and forceful monetary easing makes it likely that the yen shall remain vulnerable in the near term.

After relatively quiet equity sessions in Western Europe and the US Asian stocks rose Thursday morning after a survey showed that China’s manufacturing sector in November expanded for the first time in 13 months. Along with US factory data it raised optimism that the global growth slowdown is turning. MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan raised 0,8 percent to a one week high.

Market sentiments were also boosted by the truce between Hamas and Israel on Gaza. Brent crude trades above USD 110 a barrel. Precious metals and commodities show a firmer upward trend. Gold stands at 1730 and silver trades at 33,40.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Nov 23, 2012 5:29 am

23 NOVEMBER 2012: GOOD WEEK FOR ASIAN SHARES AND EURO

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Stock indexes continued to rise Friday morning as Asian shares were on course for a weekly gain of more than 2 percent. The Asia Pacific MSCI rose 0,4 percent and reached the highest level seen in two months after manufacturing surveys from China and the United States raised hopes for an improving global growth outlook. Japan and US were closed due to public holidays and Thanksgiving.

EURO/USD is trading at 1.2887 with the Euro enjoying a one percent lift since last Friday’s close. This in spite of yesterday’s data pointing to the Euro zone sliding into its deepest recession since 2009. The Euro has, however, been helped by optimism that a funding deal for Greece will ultimately be found when euro finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday.

USD/JPY eased 0,1 percent to 82,39 pulling back from Thursday’s high of 82.84 which is the dollar’s strongest level since early April. The dollar has gained 3,7 percent versus yen over the last two weeks. The yen has been weakened on expectations that the Bank of Japan shall implement more drastic monetary stimulus.

Commodity markets were quiet with oil, copper and precious metals staying course to end the week higher than they started. Brent crude is trading at USD 110, 25 and Gold is flat around 1730. Last day’s markets have been subdued by Thanksgiving and enters a new week once again with major focus on the debt crisis in Europe. While a lot of ink has been spilled on the US fiscal cliff the biggest challenge for the global economy rests with the euro zone.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:50 am

26 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO RISES ON GREEK HOPES

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Euro hit a seven-month high against the yen and held a one-month peak versus dollar when the trading week opened in Asia this morning. The Euro was supported by hopes that Greece will finally secure more emergency loans when EU Finance ministers meet in Brussels today. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2963 after reaching 1.2969 on Friday bringing its weekly gain to 1,75 percent and above the 1.2945 level which it began 2012.

Asian shares inched up on Monday on hopes that Greece can avoid a near term bankruptcy. A regional Spanish vote favoring separatist parties capped gains. The stock futures for US suggest a soft opening while European futures are falling. The Asian Pacific index, MSCI, rose 0,2 percent marking advance for the sixth consecutive day. There is market optimism on the euro area’s ability to reach a deal on Greece, but worries about the vote of Catalonian independence from Spain and its implications for Spain’s austerity measures and bond rates remain high.

Oil, commodities and precious metals saw gains on a weaker dollar last week. Brent crude is trading above USD 111 a barrel in Asia, and gold surpassed the 1750 level on Friday as central banks boost reserves. Both gold and silver fell somewhat back in early Asian trade. Gold dipped below 1750 and silver trades at 34,05. Gold saw its five week high helped by a weaker dollar and investor confidence. Both pension funds. Sovereign wealth funds and private investors have been buying gold along with central banks in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India, South Korea and Thailand. The buying has also been prompted by devaluation concerns of major currencies.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Nov 27, 2012 4:29 am

27 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO MINISTERS FINALLY AGREE ON GREEK DEBT

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, finally reached a deal on Monday to reduce Greece’s debt. After 12 hour of negotiations Greece’s international lenders agreed on measures to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euro, cutting the debt ratio between debt and GDP (gross domestic product) to 124 percent by 2020. Urgently needed loans to keep the bankrupt economy afloat were simultaneously released. In a significant new pledge ministers committed themselves to lower Greece’s debt below 110 percent by 2022. This is so far the most explicit recognition that some loans have to written off from 2016 when Greece is supposed to reach a primary budget surplus.

After two weeks of haggling, markets reacted with relief on the aid package. Stock markets in Asia continued up. The MSCI index for the south Pacific region outside Japan gained 0,6 percent, and the Euro/USD is trading at its highest level in weeks at 1.2985, marginally up from yesterday. Upon the release of the news from Greece, the euro reached 1.3010. Also the Australian dollar is trading at its highest level in two months versus dollar. USD/JPY was falling in early Asian trade, but has recovered at 82,15. Dow Jones was down and Nasdaq marginally up yesterday waiting for the outcome from Brussels.

Oil prices are steady. New York crude (NYMEX) is USD 88 a barrel. Brent crude is 111,04. Commodity prices are up helped by news on big infrastructural programs in China. Gold keeps around 1750 after reaching 1754 on Friday. Silver is slightly up in the morning trade in Asia at 34,20.

The agreement in Brussels has given the market a breathing spell. Investors focus is now likely to shift back to another major concern hanging over the markets, the looming US fiscal crisis. Republicans asked on Monday president Barack Obama to detail long term spending cuts to help solve the countries fiscal crisis. The Republicans are holding firm against any income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek. If a compromise deal on the budget drags out, new focus on the “fiscal cliff” would for sure create nervousness and dampened investors risk appetite.

With big funds winding down their positions ahead of the new year-end, many analysts see it unlikely with major changes in the currency markets. The euro which has gained two percent over the last days is not set for major new gains in the short term. Any further rise in the Euro will likely be countered by selling to cap the euro’s upside. USD/JPY has fallen considerably over the last weeks and no major development is expected before the Japanese elections in mid-December and an eventual new government’s likely monetary easing.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:20 am

28 NOVEMBER 2012: FOCUS SHIFT BACK TO “FISCAL CLIFF”

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Budget talks and the “fiscal cliff” is back in focus after leaving the euro finance ministers agreement on Greek debt cuts on the agenda in the very start of the week. The euro’s short won gains against the USD were eaten up during yesterday. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2939 after falling fifty basis points in the afternoon of yesterday. The Japanese Yen strengthens versus dollar. After USD/JPY has traded in the interval between 82.15 to 82,65, yen is this morning below 82 at 81,95. Asian shares ended a seven-day winning streak this morning. The share index for Asia-Pacific stocks, MSCI, fell 0,5 % and commodities eased as lack of progress in talks on US budget threatened to threw the US economy back in recession.

President Barack Obama launched yesterday a public relations push for his bid to raise taxes on wealthy Americans. US lawmakers remained, however deadlocked over dramatic year-end tax increases and spending cuts known as the “fiscal cliff”. Obama met with small business leaders in the White House. They urged Obama to keep the tax cuts for the middle class to increase consumption and job creation. The US tycoon, Warren Buffet, simultaneously, called on the rich to pay more and proposed a minimum tax on 30 % on incomes between USD 1 and 10 million and 35 % on incomes above.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid expressed last night disappointment over modest progress in the budget negotiations. The remarks had US stocks to slide. Dow Jones lost 0,69 percent and Nasdaq 0,30. Statistics could on the other hand report on record high Thanksgiving sales and the highest US-consumer optimism in 5 years. The Shanghai composite Index slid 0,7 % and the Chinese stock markets to its lowest in nearly four years extending earlier losses and closing below 2000 points for the first time since January 2009. The weak Chinese stock market along with increasing doubts over US ability to resolve the fiscal crisis have over the last weeks strengthened demand for sovereign debt. Japanese government bond futures rise to a 9 and half year high.

Digesting the Greek debt deal comments on Twitter dismissed it as another exercise in kicking the can down the road. A degree of kicking is obvious. There is, however a critical element in the new deal which goes further than any step taken so far to get Greece back on its feet. There is an implicit understanding that Greece will undergo some form of official-sector debt restructuring with euro zone countries at some point in the future forgiving a portion of Greece’s debt. This sort of last-ditch measure is usually reserved for impoverished states in Africa and Latin America. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble came close to acknowledging such an eventuality on a later press conference.

Oil prices are down a dollar since yesterday. Brent crude is trading at 110. Gold is also down from 1750 to 1741 breaking the good upward trend seen over the last days. Silver at USD 34 is also down.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Nov 29, 2012 6:29 am

29 NOVEMBER 2012: BIPARTISAN STATEMENTS TURN MARKETS AROUND

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


“The fiscal cliff” seems over the last couple of days to have taken over completely as the dominant theme in the market. Statements on Tuesday from the Democratic Senate leader, Henry Reid, expressing disappointing progress towards a budget compromise with the Republicans had the markets to tumble. Yesterday it was the other way around. When president Obama expressed hope for a deficit deal by Christmas markets made a sharp U-turn. Dow Jones and Nasdaq which had started in red territory, ended 0,83 and 0,81 percent up with Hewlett Packard, Chevron, American Express and Pfizer showing the way as cracks seemed to surface in the Republican front against any tax rises. Stocks rallied when House Speaker and leading Republican, Joe Boehner, stated that a compromise was possible to avoid the “fiscal cliff”.

Whether these remarks reflect the reality of the negotiations is another story. The “fiscal cliff” of budget cuts and tax hikes dominate the discussion and influence a world market driven by psychology. Optimistic statements are immediately given a positive spin regardless of realities. The markets are going to live with these sentiments in the coming weeks and we are most probably going to see volatility and big day-to-day changes in stocks as well as commodities and currencies. Yesterday gold was hardest hit and fell 40 dollar an ounce during the session. It has recovered and trades at present at 1722. Also oil and silver took a hard punch to normalize around USD 110 a barrels for Brent crude and 33,70 for silver.

Euro/USD fell 70 points during one session and saw a low on 1.2875 before climbing back to 1.2955 and the same level as last Friday when the common currency was strengthened by the prospects of a debt deal on Greece in Brussels. By finalizing the deal Monday night the Euro reached 1.3010 to plunge back to yesterday’s low levels. The comments from US policy makers rekindled hopes of avoiding a crash landing on the US budget; and strengthened the Euro.

USD/JPY has also demonstrated great volatility during the last week. It is now trading at 82,14 bouncing back from a week high on 81,68 against the dollar on Wednesday. The dollar has corrected after reaching a 7 ½ month high of 82,84 last week. The yen has been under pressure over the last couple of weeks on speculations about aggressive monetary easing in Japan after the elections in mid-December. It is expected that USD/JPY is going to continue to trade in a range between 81 and 83 till we have seen the outcome of the elections.

Asian shares touched their highest levels in more than three weeks. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific jumped 1 percent after ending a seven-day winning streak on Wednesday. Also commodities are up on “optimism” for reaching a compromise on the US-budget. Nikkei in Japan and Australian shares were up as the Shanghai composite index as yesterday saw its lowest level since January 2009.

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