EUR/USD long term bias

[Traveller]

Hello guys,

I'd like to discuss 4 currencies: EUR, USD, AUD and CHF, which I'm currently watching in order to manage my savings.

I focus on long term investment strategies (3-6 months or longer) and try to follow big players.

For EURUSD - long term bullish bias remains.
See the attachment.

there was a double top for EURUSD recently, however, it has only temporarily stopped the pair from making highs above 1.5050, I believe.
Big players are still actively interested in EUR and continue to sell US Dollar. US economy is far from being convincing yet. To me it means I need to continue to diversify my portfolio.
Last Friday support level around 1.4845 strengthened by 50% fibonacci retracement proved to hold.
50 SMA supports uptrend.
MACD trades above zero.
None of the uptrend lines has been breached yet.
Overall - no reason to sell the pair yet.

[MDunleavy]

What's In Store for the EUR and the USD Next Week?
At the end of a volatile trading week which has seen a turmoil in Greek bonds and has culminated with a formal request from Greece for financial aid from the EU and IMF, I explore the important economic events for the week ahead and ponder what they may bring for the EUR and the USD, I examine this morning's EUR strengthening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP currency pairs, I note the bullish breakout of the USD vs. JPY, I examine the weakness of the GBP and CAD after series of disappointing economic reports from the U.K. and Canada.
This is my forecast!

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.33811 (Last Close)
2002-08-27 00~00
2010-04-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

[MDunleavy]

Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy-stop at 1.2650 Target: 1.2800 ; Stop: 1.2575
======================================================================
Price action on EUR/USD, a chart of which is shown, has just broken down swiftly below the key 1.2500 support level, establishing a new 18-month low and lending a significant additional bearish bias to this strongly downtrending currency pair.
A continuation of the steep overall downtrend has now been confirmed, with price currently targeting a key downside support target in the 1.2300 price region.
Any substantial breakdown below 1.2300 could potentially begin to target the technically- and psychologically-important 1.2000 level, which is also around a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish run.
The broken 1.2500 level should now serve as tentative upside resistance within the context of the strong current downtrend.


"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.23566 (Last Close)
2002-09-17 00~00
2010-05-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

[MDunleavy]

First.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Limit at 1.2100; Target: 1.2250; Stop: 1.2025.
Then.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell Limit at 1.2250; Target: 1.1650 ; Stop: 1.2325.

The EUR/USD finally broke below the triangle, but did so after two false breakouts. The pair
has moved higher after putting in lows below 1.1900. The week was closed out with the EUR/USD
at 1.2110. The resistance comes in at 1.2150-1.2200. This is the former support level which
created the triangle (see chart at bottom). If that resistance band hold, expect continued
selling pressure. Support comes in at 1.2050, 1.1950 and 1.1875. Penetration of the recent
low at 1.1875 has a target of 1.1650.

"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 152 Month ~ 4627 Day
Database 662 records 1.21112 (Last Close)
1997-10-05 00~00
2010-06-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all

1.6000|~25O||______________________x_+_________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_+_______________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x_o___+_____________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_o_____+_______+___|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_o_______+_____x_+_|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|______________________x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|__________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x___________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_________x_o___o_x_____________+___o_|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|==x=o=====x===x=====o=============+=====+=|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_x_o_____x_o_______________+_____________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|o___o_____x_______________+_______________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||3_6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________7_______________O_2_|

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

[MDunleavy]

The EUR penetrated resistance at 1.2500 and the descending trend line. It is too early to call this a reversal, but the primary down trend is weakening. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 1.2500. Failure of the rising trend line would warn of a primary down swing with a target of parity - confirmed if support at 1.1900 is broken. Respect of support would suggest a reversal, but confirmation would only come from a higher trough followed by a new high.

"P&F EURUSD240 Box Size 10X3 or(2.22%) HI/LO
Data 1.5144 - 1.1876 ~ 8 Month ~ 247.17 Day
Database 1050 records 1.29296 (Last Close)
2009-11-11 16~00
2010-07-16 20~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

[MDunleavy]

The euro is testing the rising trendline; penetration would indicate that the recent rally has
weakened, and reversal below 1.2500 would indicate another test of primary support at 1.1900.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 25X3 or(0.58%) HI/LO
Data 1.3333 - 1.2663 ~ 1 Month ~ 23.49 Day
Database 5000 records 1.27105 (Last Close)
2010-07-28 11~15
2010-08-20 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all

1.3325|~25|||______________+___________________________|0.06%|5.23%
1.3300|~5O|||______________x_o_________________________|0.25%|5.03%
1.3275|~75|||______________x_o_+_______________________|0.44%|4.83%
1.3250|~1OO||______x_______x_o___+_____________________|0.62%|4.64%
1.3225|~125||______x_o_x___x_o_x___+___________________|0.81%|4.44%
1.3200|~15O||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|1%|4.24%
1.3175|~175||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|1.19%|4.04%
1.3150|~2OO||______x_o_x_o___o_x_o_______+_____________|1.37%|3.85%
1.3125|~225||______x_o_____+_o_x_o_________+___________|1.56%|3.65%
1.3100|~25O||__x___x_____+___o_x_o___________+_________|1.75%|3.45%
1.3075|~275||__x_o_x___+_____o___o_____________+_______|1.94%|3.25%
1.3050|~3OO||__x_o_x_+___________o_______________+_____|2.12%|3.06%
1.3025|~325||o_x_o_x_____________o_________________+___|2.31%|2.86%
1.3000|~35O||o_x_o_______________o___________________+_|2.5%|2.66%
1.2975|~375||o_+_________________o_____________________|2.69%|2.46%
1.2950|~4OO||+___________________o_____________________|2.87%|2.27%
1.2925|~425||____________________o_x___________________|3.06%|2.07%
1.2900|~45O||====================o=x=o=x===x===x===x===|3.25%|1.87%
1.2875|~475||____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.44%|1.67%
1.2850|~5OO||____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.62%|1.48%
1.2825|~525||________________________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|3.81%|1.28%
1.2800|~55O||________________________o___o_x_____o_x_o_|4%|1.08%
1.2775|~575||============================o=x=====o=+=o=|4.19%|0.88%
1.2750|~6OO||____________________________o_______+___o_|4.37%|0.69%
1.2725|~625||________________________________________o_|4.56%|0.49%
1.2700|~65O||________________________________________o_|4.75%|0.29%
1.2675|~675||________________________________________o_|4.94%|0.09%
1.2650|||||||________________________________________+_|5.12%|-0.1%
Column|||||||3_5_4_1_5_4_3_6_1_6_1_3_5_4_6_6_3_3_5_5_9_|
Count||||||||______O_________O___5_____________________|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

[MDunleavy]

Trade Idea: Eur/Usd- Buy at 1.3750\1.3800; Target: 1.3900\1.3950 ; Stop: 1.3700.
=======================
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.3790 on Friday after made a clear, strong and convincing breakout above 1.3670 resistance area.
From this point, beside minor resistance around 1.3800, I see no significant resistance until 1.3950, which is the next technical bullish target.
Break above 1.3950 could trigger further bullish scenario.

"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 300X3 or(7.42%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225; ~ 246.43 Month; ~ 7245 Day; ~ 20 Years
Database 1036 records; 1.379 (Last Close)
1990-11-25 00~00
2010-09-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all

1.62|________________________________________________+_____________|
1.59|________________________________________________x_+___________|
1.56|________________________________________________x_o_+_________|
1.53|________________________________________________x_o___+_______|
1.50|________________________________________________x_o_____x_____|
1.47|____________________+___________________________x_o_x___x_o___|
1.44|________+___________x_+_________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_+_|
1.41|________x_+_________x_o_x_______________________x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.38|________x_o_x_______x_o_x_o_____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.35|x_______x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+_______________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.32|x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___x_o___o___+_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.29|__o_x___x_o___o___+_x_____o_____+_______x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.26|__o_x_o_x_____o_____x_____o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x_|
1.23|__o_x_o_x_____o_x___x_____o_x_______+___x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_|
1.20|__o_x_o_x___+_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_______+_x_o___o_x_________o_+_|
1.17|__o_x_o___+___o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x___x_____o___________+___|
1.14|__o_x___+_____o___o_x_____o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+_____|
1.11|__o_x_+___________o_______o_x_o_____x_o_x_____________+_______|
1.08|__o_+_____________________o_x_o_____x_o_____________+_________|
1.05|__+_______________________o___o_____x_____________+___________|
1.02|______________________________o_____x___________+_____________|
0.99|______________________________o_____x_________+_______________|
0.96|______________________________o_____x_______+_________________|
0.93|______________________________o_x___x_____+___________________|
0.90|______________________________o_x_o_x___+_____________________|
0.87|______________________________o_x_o_x_+_______________________|
0.84|______________________________o___o_+_________________________|
0.81|__________________________________+___________________________|
|||||2_9_7_4_8_4_3_8_3_4_1_4_3_1_6_1_3_3_1_3_7_3_5_6_1_1_7_7_8_1_5_|
|||||Column Count________1_____2___3_____1___________4_1_______O___|     


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

[MDunleavy]

Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy (Stop,Limit) at 1.3900; Target: 1.4350 ; Stop: 1.3800.

"P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 12X3 or(0.26%) HI/LO
Data 1.4151 - 1.383 ~ 0.12 Month ~ 3.44 Day
Database 2010 records 1.38938 (Last Close)
2010-10-15 02~47
2010-10-18 13~20 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all

1.4148|~12|||______x_+_______________|0.02%|2.3%
1.4136|~24|||______x_o_+_____________|0.11%|2.21%
1.4124|~36|||______x_o___+___________|0.19%|2.13%
1.4112|~48|||__x___x_o_____+_________|0.28%|2.04%
1.4100|~6O|||__x_o_x_o_______+_______|0.36%|1.95%
1.4088|~72|||__x_o_x_o_x_______+_____|0.45%|1.87%
1.4076|~84|||__x_o___o_x_o_______+___|0.53%|1.78%
1.4064|~96|||__x_____o_x_o_________+_|0.61%|1.69%
1.4052|~1O8||__x_____o___o___________|0.7%|1.61%
1.4040|~12O||o_x_________o_x_________|0.78%|1.52%
1.4028|~132||o_x_________o_x_o_______|0.87%|1.43%
1.4016|~144||____________o_x_o_x_____|0.95%|1.34%
1.4004|~156||____________o_x_o_x_o___|1.04%|1.26%
1.3992|~168||____________o___o_x_o___|1.12%|1.17%
1.3980|~18O||________________o___o___|1.21%|1.08%
1.3968|~192||____________________o___|1.29%|1%
1.3956|~2O4||____________________o___|1.38%|0.91%
1.3944|~216||____________________o___|1.46%|0.82%
1.3932|~228||____________________o___|1.55%|0.74%
1.3920|~24O||____________________o___|1.63%|0.65%
1.3908|~252||____________________o_x_|1.72%|0.56%
1.3896|~264||____________________o_x_o1.8%|0.48%
1.3884|~276||====================o=x=o1.89%|0.39%
1.3872|~288||____________________o_x_|1.97%|0.3%
1.3860|~3OO||____________________o_x_|2.06%|0.22%
1.3848|~312||____________________o_x_|2.14%|0.13%
1.3836|~324||____________________o_+_|2.23%|0.04%
1.3824|~336||____________________+___|
Column|||||||2_8_3_6_8_3_8_4_5_3_1_6_|
Count||||||||____________________5___|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

[MDunleavy]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 155.85 Month ~ 4582 Day
Database 3277 records 1.32402 (Last Close)
1998-05-11 00~00
2010-11-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all

1.6000|~25O||______________________+___x_+_____________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_x_o_+___________________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x___x_o___+_________________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_____o_____+_______+_______|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_____o_______+_____x_+_____|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_____o_x_______+___x_o_+___|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_____o_x_o_____x_+_x_o___+_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_____o___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________+___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x_+_x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|______________+___x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x_+_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|__+___________x_o_x_o_x_________o___o___o___o_x___|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x_+_________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_____o_x_+_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_+___+___x_o___o_x_____________+_______o_+___|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|__x_o___+_x_+_x_____o_____________+_________+_____|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|o_x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_+_o_____x_o_______________+_____________________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|+___o_____x_______________+_______________________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||2_5_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_1_3_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_9_4_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________6___________________O_2_____|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.