USDCAD long term bias

Re: USDCAD long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:49 am

This week, US data and the European bank stress test results stole most of the headlines. Canada has quietly seen their currency strengthen towards the lower part of its' recent range. Tuesday saw an increase of 25 basis points on their overnight rate. Canadian Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index printed below expectations, but the currency benefited from the stabilization of commodities. While the outlook for future rate hikes is dismal, the Canadian economy is significantly in a better position than the US.Written by FX Solutions.USDCAD strength can continue towards 1.02.

"P&F USDCAD30 Box Size 40X3 or(1.15%) HI/LO
Data 1.0744 - 1.0138 ~ 2 Month ~ 58.98 Day
Database 2048 records 1.03572 (Last Close)
2010-05-25 23~00
2010-07-23 22~30 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
Code: Select all
1.0760|~4O|||+_______________________________|-0.15%|6.14%
1.0720|~8O|||x_o_____________________________|0.22%|5.74%
1.0680|~12O||x_o_+_______________+___________|0.6%|5.35%
1.0640|~16O||__o___+_____x_______x_+_________|0.97%|4.95%
1.0600|~2OO||__o_____+___x_o_____x_o_+_______|1.34%|4.56%
1.0560|~24O||__o_x___x_+_x_o_____x_o_x_+_____|1.71%|4.16%
1.0520|~28O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___|2.08%|3.77%
1.0480|~32O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_+_|2.46%|3.37%
1.0440|~36O||__o___o___o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|2.83%|2.98%
1.0400|~4OO||__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.2%|2.58%
1.0360|~44O||__________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|3.57%|2.19%
1.0320|~48O||______________o_x_o___o_x_____V_|3.95%|1.8%
1.0280|~52O||______________o_x_____o_______V_|4.32%|1.4%
1.0240|~56O||______________o_x___+_________V_4.69%|1.01%
1.0200|~6OO||______________o_x_+___________V_5.06%|0.61%
1.0160|~64O||______________o_+_____________V_5.44%|0.22%
1.0120|~68O||______________+_________________|5.81%|-0.18%
Column|~72O||2_8_3_3_3_5_7_1_7_3_8_9_7_5_3_3_|
Count||~76O||______________2_________________|


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Re: Overconfident EURO daytraders

Postby spotfx » Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:06 pm

Rom wrote:I don't trust this upmove at all.
Probably daytrading nonsense

overconfident daytrading nonsense?
are you serious :lol:

1) you don't have to trust a move to be able to make money out of it.
2) that sharp 7 handle shift in momentum most definitely isn't down to overconfident daytraders.

if some of you fella's actually took the time to do your homework & properly investigate how, why & what drives & influences these currencies maybe you'd be in a far more confident & competent position to actually leg into some of these moves instead of standing around scratching your balls watching it all roll by.
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Re: Overconfident EURO daytraders

Postby spotfx » Mon Sep 27, 2010 2:33 am

Rom wrote:The 700 pips move in 2 weeks is large.

exactly, & that isn't the exclusive result of overconfident daytraders.

it's another small leg in the shift in near-term sentiment which started back in June & July. This time it's not being helped by disappointing data output, the realization that Canada might not keep pace with it's European trading partners recovery prospects & the fear that a step up in forward interest rates might have to be put on the back burner.

that leaves a rather sour taste in traders mouths - if anything is going to temporarily put the skids under that pairs long term trend resumption, that'll do it.
Rom wrote:Has the fundamentals changed in two weeks, so that EURO is brighter and CAD is going south? Not at all.

2 weeks?
the sentiment changed 3 months ago.
which chart are you looking at?

the generic fundamentals don't have to change very much at all for traders to influence an aggressive move such as that.

judging by some of your comments, including the title header above, it's quite obvious you haven't been around this game for very long.
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Re: Overconfident EURO daytraders

Postby spotfx » Mon Sep 27, 2010 6:29 am

Which brings the discussion right back to where you assumed the latest 7 handle kick up in momentum could be casually dismissed as day trading nonsense.

If you observe the technical positioning of the price action that has mirrored the reluctance of Cad Bulls to push this lower, you will quite clearly see the obvious shift in appetite for this pair.

Your 1st clue was the inability to push prices to a fresh low back in June (circle) when prices printed a higher low (1-2-3).
For 6 months prior, the peak-trough activity had comfortably printed lower highs & lows.
As soon as cracks started to appear in the CAD's superior fundamental halo, CAD bulls quickly bailed & booked profits.

The move up met resistance a couple times during the summer at a previous level of supply (from April 2010). But importantly, it maintained its structure assisted by the conflicting fundamental data & positive chatter from Eurozone finance chiefs.

It's now breached that temporary supply level last week & will use the area as a potential ledge of support to check the demand from Euro bulls for a run toward the next upper supply levels @ 1.41 & 1.4350

This pair will be dominated now by short-term influences as it has since the summer.

These conflicting & constantly evolving fundamental & technical behavior patterns are not only very tradeable, but offer excellent risk opportunities to capture worthwhile profits back & forth on the price ladder.......providing of course you know what you're doing & you understand how the market reacts to the psychology of the participants.

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Re: USDCAD long term bias

Postby spotfx » Mon Sep 27, 2010 9:15 am

Rom wrote:My current view is last move is a capital movement into EURO, CAD fundamentals are good, and capital will return.

EURUSD is a different story.

That similar capital movement may not return to USD?

It's fine to adopt a slightly longer term view, but it can take weeks & months for the price action to fully digest and reflect the market dynamics & influences.

In the meantime professional day traders & short-term speculators are taking full advantage of these consistent price gyrations back & forth by legging in & out of the market rhythm as their own specific set ups & accompanying back up information dictates.

It doesn't matter whether you or I or anyone else thinks it's a capital transfer, only that the current market bias offers up regular trading opportunities to profit from the uncertainty.

That's the whole point of the exercise.

Personally if I was actively trading this pair I could give a damn if it moves another 7 handles in either direction.
Neither do I care if the Canadian economy is in great health or not.
The only thing that interests me is how best I can take financial advantage of whatever current scenario the pair finds itself in.

And that would be achieved by keeping close tabs on the regular data output & how it impacts the near-term picture...how the technicals react to the various (current) price drivers & influences.....& whether it offers me sufficient risk & forward value potential to take a long or a short bet.

The long term direction of any pair will be (initially) dictated by the short-term influences.
The objective of the trader is to ensure they're adequately equipped to avail themselves of the opportunities that the market presents in that journey from A to B.
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Re: Overconfident EURO daytraders

Postby spotfx » Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:38 am

Rom wrote:The dumb retail trader has the freedom to follow professionals like TheLFB and go L, S, -, -, L, L, S, -, L, -,S, L, -, -, L, S, L, S, -, -, L, S, -, S, S, L, -, L, S, ...
or to go S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S, ... with risk/rewards of 1 : 50 till the fundamentals takes over. What is dumbest? .

the market very quickly sifts, sorts & churns the wheat from the chaff.
weak, clueless, unprepared & naïve participants tend not to last too long, regardless of who or what they follow.

adopting & trading a shorter-range trading outlook doesn't automatically place someone at a disadvantage.
the smart players work a very defined edge developed specifically to match up with certain market conditions. They will only place their capital at risk if & when those conditions line up & offer potentially favorable odds.

forget these silly negatively skewed scalping systems or multi-day visits to the market – those are the tactics of the undisciplined retail fools.

the inclusion & consideration of sub hourly timeframes into a traders decision making process doesn't necessarily have to paint them with the scalper or reckless trader brush.

a competent, experienced professional trader familiar with his/her surroundings, confident & aware of the strengths & weaknesses of their trading vehicle, possessing & a well defined plan of action will be more than capable of working his edge from any timeframe he chooses.

price tells the same story across the timeframe spectrum....as long as you know how to correctly interpret what it's saying!
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Re: Overconfident EURO daytraders

Postby spotfx » Thu Sep 30, 2010 1:57 am

spotfx wrote:It's now breached that temporary supply level last week & will use the area as a potential ledge of support to check the demand from Euro bulls for a run toward the next upper supply levels @ 1.41 & 1.4350

This pair will be dominated now by short-term influences as it has since the summer.

and a couple days on from that last post it continues the current bullish bias & puts another 330 pips in the tank to arrive at the next stage of this dual supply zone at the 1.41 area.

as is the norm when prices reach these prior reaction zones, traders will now book a little more profit & take stock of the current price drivers & influences to gauge the appetite for another push up.

you can clearly see from the price action at the cut off of the previous chart on Monday that the bias was never under threat.
once prices moved up through last weeks highs & maintained the bullish thrust via that higher low pullback, it was a clear run to 1.41.

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Re: USDCAD long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:56 am

I remain bullish on USD/CAD.
Trade Idea: USD/Cad - Buy (Stop) at 1.0280; Target: 1.0480 ; Stop: 1.0200.
See the details on the charts.

"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 246.9 Month ~ 7259 Day
Database 1038 records 1.02573 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-10-17 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
Code: Select all
1.6250|~25O||____________+_______________________________|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||________x___x_+_____________________________|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x___x_o_x_o_+___________________________|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________________|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+_______________________|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+_____________________|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+___________________|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|____x_o_____+_o___________+_________________|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x___x_____+___o_____________+_______________|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+_____________|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+___________|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+_________|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+_______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x_+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o___o_________x_o_x_o_x_o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_________________o_x_______x_o_x_o_x_o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o___o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o___o_x___x_o_x_____o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_____________________o_x_o_x_o_______o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x_________o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o___o_x_________o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|__________________________o_x_________o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x_________o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|==========================o=x=======+=o=x=o=x36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|__________________________o_x_____+___o_+_o_|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+_____+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+_____________|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+_______________|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+_________________|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4_1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5_________2_____|


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Re: USDCAD long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:03 am

Image
"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 248.57 Month ~ 7308 Day
Database 1045 records 1.00896 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-12-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
Code: Select all
1.6250|~25O||________+___+_______________________________|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||____+___x_+_x_+_____________________________|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x_+_x_o_x_o_+___________________________|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________________|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+_______________________|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+_____________________|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+___________________|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|+___x_o_____+_o___________+_________________|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x_+_x_____+___o_____________+_______________|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+_____________|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+___________|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+_________|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+_______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x_+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o_+_o_________x_o_x_o_x_o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_____________+___o_x_______x_o_x_o_x_o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o___o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o_+_o_x___x_o_x_____o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_________________+___o_x_o_x_o_______o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x_________o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o_+_o_x_________o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|______________________+___o_x_________o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x_________o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|__________________________o_x_______+_o_x_o_|36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|==========================o=x=====+===o=+=o=|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+_____+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+_____________|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+_______________|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+_________________|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4_1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5_________2_____|

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