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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 14, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4698.38-4781.28, TP1-4864.28, TP2-5186.48.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of quotations 4685.00–4735.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotations 4580.00-4615.00 and 4640.00-4675.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 08.04.2026.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4781.28.

The quotation of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4698.38.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs of 08.04.2026–4864.28.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ - 5186.48.



Trading recommendations: purchases from the range of favorable prices upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4698.38–4781.28, Take Profit 1–4864.28, Take Profit 2–5186.48.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 15, 2026 USDJPY


USDJPY:




USD/JPY is holding near 158.80: the pair is sensitive to differences in rate expectations between the US and Japan and to overall market sentiment. Reduced concerns about supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have weakened demand for safe-haven instruments, but an unstable news backdrop continues to support interest in the US dollar.

From Japan’s side, the key signal is the Bank of Japan’s stance. The regulator maintains a cautious course: the policy rate remains unchanged, while a slowdown in the pace of bond-buying reductions is being discussed in order to avoid a sharp rise in yields. This approach limits the yen’s strengthening potential but makes its reaction more dependent on global capital flows.

In the US, producer price data came in softer than expected, but rising energy components keep the market in a mode of expecting “longer” high Fed rates. If US yields remain elevated, the dollar retains an advantage; however, if sentiment improves and expectations for policy normalization in Japan strengthen, the yen may recover faster. For today, the baseline remains a pullback scenario for USD/JPY to the downside. The risk is a new spike in tensions and a stronger dollar.

Trade recommendation: SELL 158.95, SL 159.15, TP 158.00

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Oil surges: the market had every reason to be worried!

Over the past few days, #BRENT and #WTI have risen sharply. The trigger was a tough assessment from the International Energy Agency: the IEA believes that the conflict around Iran has already reshaped the global oil balance. The agency now expects global oil demand in 2026 to decline by 80 thousand barrels per day, while supply is set to fall by 1.5 million bpd. The market is reacting not only to the fact of the deficit itself, but also to the risk that expensive oil will start to weigh on consumption, accelerate inflation, and increase nervousness across the world.



Growth factors:

BRENT. North Sea crude is holding near the $100 per barrel area after a strong jump at the beginning of the week. At the opening of trading on April 13, Brent rose by 9% and traded near $99.80. This shows that the market is already pricing in not a short-term spike in fear, but a prolonged supply risk.

WTI. US crude also strengthened sharply: on April 13, WTI climbed to $98.08. For traders, this is an important signal because the rise is taking place not only in the physical Middle East market, but across the key global benchmarks at once.

Hormuz Strait. The main pressure factor is the disruption of supplies through Hormuz. The IEA emphasizes that the restoration of normal flows through the strait remains the key condition for easing price pressure. In early April, only around 3.8 million bpd passed through it, compared with more than 20 million bpd in February, before the escalation of the crisis.

Expensive physical oil. Additional concern comes from the gap between futures and the real market. The IEA and Reuters note that physical oil prices were rising toward $150 per barrel. This means that the shortage is already being felt not only in expectations, but also in actual supplies.

Supply deficit. According to the IEA, global oil supply collapsed by 10.1 million bpd in March, which the agency called the largest supply disruption in history. Against this backdrop, the market is increasingly concerned that the shortage of raw materials will last longer than investors had expected just a month ago.

The rise in #BRENT and #WTI may continue because the market is still not confident in a quick restoration of supplies through Hormuz, while the IEA also allows for a more severe scenario in which the world will have to draw more actively on oil inventories, and demand will decline even more sharply. FreshForex analysts note that oil may remain one of the most volatile and attractive trading instruments throughout 2026. Use strong market moves, follow the news, and choose the most favorable entry points.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 16, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.



The index continued to move upward quite confidently, approaching its all-time high. As previously noted, an upward impulse is likely forming at the moment, which is part of wave (v) on a higher timeframe.

At this point, the impulse on the current timeframe appears complete, meaning a corrective decline may begin at any moment. An additional factor supporting the bearish scenario is the previously marked high acting as a resistance level. The price has already reacted to this level twice; on the third attempt, we will likely see another notable reaction.

Given this, it may be worth cautiously opening short positions at current market levels.

Investment idea: SELL 26200, SL 26400, TP 24800.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 17, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is holding near 1.1780 at the end of the week and is receiving support from the weakening US dollar. Pressure on the US currency eased after news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and expectations of US-Iran talks over the weekend. Against this backdrop, part of the safe-haven demand for the dollar faded, while the euro remains close to its highest levels in about seven weeks.

Additional support for the single currency comes from the fact that the European Central Bank is not rushing to change the rate, but at the same time is not signaling any near-term easing of conditions. Representatives of the regulator stress that they need more data to understand whether higher energy prices will spread into broader price growth across the economy. The market is already pricing in a rate increase by July, and this helps the euro remain resilient.

In the United States, the picture for the dollar looks less convincing. US Treasury yields remain stable, but market participants are waiting for new guidance after softer producer price data and amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave the rate unchanged. As long as demand for safe-haven assets is declining and US rate expectations are not becoming tighter, EUR/USD still has room to move higher.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1780, SL 1.1750, TP 1.1870

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 20, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is trading near 1.3505 on Monday, but the pound is not getting enough support to continue its rise. The reason is the same as for other major currencies: the escalation around Iran has boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, while oil and gas prices are rising again. This is especially sensitive for the British currency, as the market is quickly reassessing inflation prospects and borrowing costs under renewed energy pressure.

From a fundamental point of view, the pound’s position is complicated by the fact that improvements in some economic data no longer look like sufficient support. According to the IMF, UK economic growth in 2026 is now expected at only 0.8%, which became the most notable downgrade among the G7 countries. At the same time, rising gas prices and higher UK government bond yields are increasing pressure on lending, the budget, and domestic demand.

Additional caution comes from comments by Bank of England representative Megan Greene, who directly stated that new price risks are now more important than a possible weakening in demand. In other words, it is becoming harder for the regulator to ease monetary conditions quickly, even if the economy loses momentum. For the pound, this is an unfavorable combination: slowing growth does not provide stable support, while a tougher price environment does not allow expectations of rapid policy relief. Therefore, the base scenario for today remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3505, SL 1.3535, TP 1.3415

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00​



Gold enters the week under pressure after pulling back to the 4790–4800 dollars per ounce area. The trigger was a new wave of tension around Iran: oil prices moved higher, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. This is unfavorable for gold because the market is once again concerned about prolonged inflation and a longer period of high interest rates in the United States.

This week, the key factor for XAUUSD will be not only demand for safe-haven assets, but also the market’s reaction to rising energy prices. As long as the dollar keeps its advantage and yields continue to rise, gold will find it harder to return quickly to its highs. The base-case scenario for the week is a moderate decline, with a risk of sharp swings driven by Middle East headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4790.00, SL 4820.00, TP 4700.00



#SP500: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275​



The S&P 500 index ended last week at a new record high near 7126 points. The market is being supported by expectations of strong corporate earnings: nearly one fifth of the companies in the index are due to report this week, while total first-quarter earnings growth is estimated at around 14% year-on-year. This is keeping interest in US equities firm despite external uncertainty.

Additional support is coming from broad inflows into US stocks and historical market behavior: after reaching new highs, the market often continues rising for several more weeks. A limiting factor is expensive oil, which may increase inflation risks and put pressure on corporate costs. Still, for now the fundamental balance for the week remains in favor of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7125, SL 7075, TP 7275




#BRENT: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75​



Brent starts the week near 95.25 dollars per barrel after a fresh rise in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions, especially since about one fifth of global oil and liquefied gas supplies pass through this route. Against this backdrop, oil prices remain highly sensitive to any news related to negotiations and military developments.

Throughout the week, Brent may continue to rise as long as the threat of supply disruptions remains reflected in prices. At the same time, the upside potential is limited by expectations of weaker demand and by major banks’ assumptions that supply flows may gradually normalize by mid-May. Therefore, the base-case scenario remains moderately upward, but with very high volatility.

Trading recommendation: BUY 95.25, SL 93.75, TP 99.75

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 21, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 26171.3-26448.8, TP1-26726.3, TP2-27798.8.

Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 23950.0–24100.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 23980.0–24080.0, 25040.0–25140.0 and 26240.0–26340.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the high of 17.04.2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone – 26448.8.

Quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone – 26171.3.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs of 17.04.2026 – 26726.3.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 27798.8.



Investment recommendations: purchases from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 26171.3-26448.8, Take Profit 1-26726.3, Take Profit 2-27798.8.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 22, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is holding near 159.30–159.35 and remains close to weekly highs. The main source of support for the dollar is steady demand for safe-haven assets, strong US consumer spending, and reduced expectations of a near-term rate cut. For the yen, such a backdrop is unfavourable, since the yield gap between the United States and Japan remains wide.

The outlook for the Japanese currency is also complicated by expectations surrounding the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting. According to Reuters, the central bank is likely to refrain from raising rates in April, while the governor has previously avoided signalling a rapid tightening of policy. At the same time, even the expected acceleration of Japan’s core inflation to 1.8% in March remains below the 2% target.

Japan’s trade data supported the view that exports remain resilient: overseas shipments rose 11.7% year-on-year in March, marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase. However, higher energy prices and the country’s dependence on fuel imports limit the positive effect of this data on the yen. For now, the market sees stronger reasons for continued dollar strength than for a recovery in the Japanese currency, so the priority scenario for USD/JPY today remains further growth.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.35, SL 159.05, TP 160.25

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#SP500, #NQ100, #DJI30: Why aren’t they falling?


U.S. stock indices remain near record highs: #SP500, #NQ100, and #DJI30 are all holding close to their peaks. The rally is supported by several factors at once: strong corporate earnings, stable profit expectations, and strong demand for major companies, as well as the belief that geopolitical tensions will not quickly worsen the U.S. economic outlook. At the same time, each index has its own driver: #SP500 is supported by broad-based earnings growth across sectors, #NQ100 by sustained interest in tech companies and the artificial intelligence theme, and #DJI30 by strength in banking, industrials, and energy.

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Key factors supporting the market:

1. Strong corporate earnings support the market and reduce fears of external risks.
2. Profit expectations for 2026 remain positive, sustaining interest in equities.
3. The tech sector continues to grow, driven by demand for artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.
4. Banks, industrials, and energy add resilience to the market and support broad index growth.
5. Investors expect more stable financial conditions, which maintains demand for U.S. equities.

Analysts at FreshForex believe that U.S. indices are holding near their highs not because they ignore geopolitics, but because the market currently sees profits, the AI cycle, banking stability, and capital inflows as stronger forces than current news-driven risks. As long as this logic holds, #SP500, #NQ100, and #DJI30 may remain elevated even in a tense external environment. What matters most for the market right now is not the headlines about conflicts themselves, but whether they begin to materially affect corporate earnings and expectations for the U.S. economy.

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