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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for November 04, 2025 BTCUSD


BTCUSD: SELL 105500, SL 107400, TP 95000

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Bitcoin's position is deteriorating day by day. Under pressure from sales, the digital asset is forced to continue its retreat. This development is fully consistent with the wave scenario discussed earlier.

According to this scenario, a downward impulse is currently developing. Waves 1 and 2 have already formed, and the current pressure on the price is expected to accelerate the decline in wave 3. If this is indeed the case, we will see a continuation of the price decline in the near future, which may be quite strong and prolonged.

For this reason, it is recommended to keep previously opened sell trades open and, if possible, to conclude additional trades in the same direction.

Investment idea: SELL 105500, SL 107400, TP 95000.


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Maximum profit: Top 5 indices of October

In October, client activity peaked around #SP500, #NQ100, #DAX30, #FTSE100, and #NIKKEI. These five indices not only showed the highest share of profitable trades but also delivered the best returns across all index instruments. Strong corporate earnings, steady demand, and a positive news backdrop continue to support their growth potential.

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Growth outlook for key indices through the end of 2025:

• #SP500: New record highs, solid earnings from major players, and expectations of a Fed rate cut support buying the dip with moderate risk.
• #NQ100: Tech demand remains strong as firms invest in data centers and AI infrastructure. If earnings stay on track, there’s still room to grow.
• #DAX30: After hitting new all-time highs in 2025, the German index benefits from improved global trade sentiment and stable EU data. Exporters thrive on robust external demand.
• #FTSE100: The UK market remains near its highs, supported by strong performance in key sectors and commodities. Year-end liquidity may further reinforce the uptrend.
• #NIKKEI: Japan’s index keeps climbing, helped by a weak yen boosting exports and a predictable monetary environment. Further gains are possible if global conditions remain calm.

FreshForex analysts believe short-term index performance hinges on three main factors: current earnings season results, inflation trends, and central bank decisions. Risk management and awareness of the macro calendar remain essential.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for November 5, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

USDJPY:

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The euro remains under pressure as the US dollar firms ahead of key US services activity indicators. Investors are weighing the mix of resilient consumer demand and signs of softer employment, which supports the dollar via firmer Treasury yields and demand for safe-haven assets. The upcoming release of the US services activity index and fresh private-sector employment data shapes expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path and, overall, keeps the bias in favor of the dollar.

In the euro area, the backdrop is subdued: business activity in manufacturing and services remains muted, while inflation expectations have been revised lower following the ECB’s latest easing of financing conditions. The combination of soft domestic momentum and limited progress in credit growth sustains caution toward the euro. Recent ECB communication emphasizes stabilizing growth over the risks of re-accelerating inflation, which also weighs on the currency.

An additional factor is a generally risk-averse tone: concerns around the US budget and headlines on government spending bolster demand for the dollar as a reserve asset. Against this backdrop, the near-term risk balance for EURUSD remains tilted lower; if US data stay firm, the pair risks holding around multi-month lows.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1495, SL 1.1525, TP 1.1445

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for November 6, 2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 103200, SL 104500, TP 95000

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After a sharp decline that broke the local low and pushed the price below 100 000, buyers suddenly stepped in, driving a rebound. However, this upward move is unlikely to evolve into a sustained rally toward the all‑time high.

Instead, it should be viewed as a corrective bounce — wave 4 within an emerging impulse that forms part of wave 3 on a higher timeframe. Today, the price may resume its downward trajectory, though it could linger near current levels for a while.

Ultimately, we are highly likely to see a retest of the current local low, with the price settling in the 90 000–95 000 range — or even lower.

Thus, the current setup offers a good opportunity to enter sell trades at favorable prices.

Investment idea: SELL 103200, SL 104500, TP 95000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

NFP: Dollar surge or market meltdown?



On Friday, November 7, 2025, at 15:30 EET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report — a market-moving event that can reshuffle investor expectations in a matter of minutes. For traders and investors, it’s a real-time test: is the economy slowing enough to justify Fed easing, or are wages rising too fast, fueling services inflation and keeping core CPI elevated?

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How to read the NFP: 5 key signals for traders

• Jobs added. A print above forecasts signals strength; below expectations suggests weakness.
• Unemployment rate. A rise above consensus = cooling labor market; a drop = tight conditions.
• Wages. Rising faster = inflation risks and hawkish Fed; slowing = case for softer policy.
• Revisions. Changes of ±50–100K to past months can flip the current release’s narrative.
• Quality metrics. Hours worked, labor force participation, sector breakdown — broader and stronger growth if these are healthy.

The November 7 NFP isn’t just another jobs report — it’s a stress test for rate expectations and risk appetite. Market reactions will depend on the full mix of employment numbers, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. FreshForex analysts see this as a tactical window for active traders and a strategic signal for long-term investors — highlighting where the balance is shifting between growth and inflation pressures.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for November 7, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

18:00 EET. USD – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

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The euro firmed moderately toward the end of the week amid softer signals from the U.S. labor market and rising expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing in the coming months. However, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed: stronger mid-week readings on U.S. business activity and employment supported the dollar, limiting the euro’s upside. The U.S. still benefits from relatively high real yields and resilient consumption, while the euro area continues to face weak growth and sensitivity to energy and budget constraints.

In terms of the news flow, the euro is pressured by a softer ECB path after recent cuts and lowered inflation forecasts. Even brief bursts of risk appetite have produced only partial corrections: when the dollar eases, the pair returns to weekly highs, but signs of a slowdown in German industry and weak credit dynamics in the region cap a sustained uptrend.

This balance of factors — moderately firm U.S. data versus weak euro-area prospects — argues for a “sell on rallies” setup. As of November 7, the pair fluctuates around 1.1540–1.1550, and with the yield differential still favoring the U.S., risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1550, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1460

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