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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 8, 2025



At the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro fell by 53 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price has already dropped another 30 pips, approaching the target level of 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator is also declining after rebounding from the zero line. Even on the weekly chart, divergences are present and Marlin remains in negative territory. Formally, the price action is developing in line with our primary scenario, under which the euro is expected to continue its long-term decline toward the key target at 1.1066 — the May low — which nearly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that began in January this year.

However, this otherwise clean technical outlook is being clouded by several factors: the weekly gap from Monday remains unfilled, U.S. stock markets are near all-time highs, the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds is stable at Friday's closing level, and daily trading volume remains below average. In other words, there is no obvious capital flight — the euro is falling because of internal factors, possibly due to the recent resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. If early parliamentary elections in France are announced, this could further destabilize the euro's outlook. For these reasons, we are not counting on a deep decline in the euro. A price reversal from the 1.1605 level is possible — and could happen as soon as today. Should the price consolidate below that level, it may then work its way down to the next support at 1.1495. If that level also breaks, the path opens toward 1.1392. A reversal may occur from any of these key levels, possibly leading the price back up to 1.1779 to fill the unclosed gap — a last opportunity to retest the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1910. The euro is entering a chaotic phase resembling that of the first half of 2021.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – October 9: "It's Always the Same One to Blame...



The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, declining steadily without major pauses, even overnight. This drop has been swift and persistent. So, let's ask an important question: do traders really understand that such a move requires major fundamental justification? And do they realize that it's not enough to isolate a single event—they need to consider the entire spectrum of macroeconomic and fundamental signals? Reading various expert commentaries brings to mind the classic line from the film "Casablanca": "Round up the usual suspects." At the moment, the euro does not have any serious reasons to be falling, yet many analysts are pointing fingers at the political turbulence in France — which isn't even a full-blown crisis — and blaming everything on that. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market has delivered its fifth consecutive disappointing monthly report — and that's somehow been overlooked. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted the publication of key economic reports, which are also not considered critical. Declining ISM business activity indices suggest an economic slowdown? Apparently unimportant too. The Federal Reserve's dovish messaging? Ignored. Trump's escalating tariff wars? Just a side note. But the resignation of a fifth French prime minister in two years? That's somehow a "global shockwave." Let's be honest: while France is a major EU economy, it is still just one country. The serial turnover of prime ministers has already become routine. No elections have been called, Parliament has not been dissolved, Macron has not resigned — so why the panic?

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 10: The Euro Collapses After Powell's Speech

EUR/USD 5M Analysis



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout Thursday. Overall, even if we were to gather all possible factors that could support the U.S. dollar and ignore all the ones that oppose it, even then, such dollar strength would hardly be justified. The only significant event on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, the dollar began to strengthen earlier in the day, which once again highlights the illogical nature of the current market behavior. Perhaps the market has completely changed its attitude toward Donald Trump's policies and now, for example, views them positively. But from our perspective, there should be some visible positive results of those policies before one can confidently look forward to growth in the U.S. economy. Now back to Powell's speech — the Fed Chair hardly touched on monetary policy and gave no clear signals about easing at the next meeting. What does this change? Nothing. The absence of comments on monetary policy doesn't mean that it won't happen or that the Fed has abandoned the dovish scenario. Still, the market, for some reason, is buying the dollar regardless of justification. It sounds strange in 2025, but this is the objective reality. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed. First, the pair attempted a slight rebound from the 1.1604–1.1615 area, followed by a breakout of this zone. The first signal turned out to be false, while the second was profitable. On the 1-hour chart, a descending trendline has formed, giving traders a technical reference. Despite the fundamentally ungrounded drop in the pair, a potential trend reversal can be assessed by observing whether the price breaks through the trendline.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated September 23. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for quite some time. Bears briefly took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost their advantage. Ever since Trump began his second term as president, only the U.S. dollar has been falling. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, but current global developments point to that scenario. We still see no strong fundamental factors for euro strength, but plenty of reasons remain for further dollar weakness. The global downtrend remains intact — but what's the point of looking back 17 years to see where price once moved? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may strengthen again. But recent events suggest that this war will persist in one form or another. A potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The position of the red and blue indicator lines still suggests the bullish trend is intact. During the most recent reporting week: Long positions by the Non-commercial group fell by 800 contracts Short positions increased by 2,600 contracts As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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