GBPUSD:
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By the start of the European session on August 18, GBP/USD is holding around the mid-1.35s, as confirmed by price feeds and market roundups near the current date. Private fundamental notes for Monday feature a bearish bias, favoring sell setups from 1.35–1.36, which aligns with fading upside momentum and profit-taking on long positions.
Fundamentally, pressure on the pound stems from recent signals by the Bank of England and real-sector data. Several reviews note that the latest BoE decision was accompanied by hawkish communication; however, cooling economic activity and a weak July GDP print (m/m negative) limit room for further tightening and raise the risk of a policy path reassessment into the fall. Against this backdrop, near-term rate expectations are tilting away from the GBP, while a rise in UST yields ahead of US releases supports the dollar in a moderate risk-off mode.
Balance-of-payments factors also weigh on the pound’s sustained upside: a widening UK current account deficit in Q2 in some estimates increases the currency’s sensitivity to outflows during periods of softer risk appetite. In parallel, weekly consensus forecasts cite a probability of testing lower levels as the correction unfolds from the 1.36+ resistances, with the scenario invalidated on a firm break above recent highs. Overall, as of 18.08, we prefer selling from 1.3550 with a tight risk.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3445
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