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[Volkov Yuriy]

Options Analysis for 07 Aug 2025 – BTCUSD

BTCUSD SELL 115 410, SL 115 970, TP 111 730

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The price is trading comfortably below the daily balance level of 114 905. A fresh bearish impulse has formed, aiming for 109 259 and still pointing in that direction. An excellent sell level is 115 581. A strong resistance zone—and likewise an ideal entry point—sits around 115 594. The bearish bias remains the dominant trend. The main medium-term target is near 109 500. A decline from current levels cannot be ruled out. Medium-term resistance is located around 116 325, while the maximum-profit level lies in the 116 700 area. Dealer-sentiment (DS) metrics favor buyers 72 % on the week and 62 % on the month, yet today’s primary scenario is selling the pair.

Trade idea: BTCUSD SELL 115 410, SL 115 970, TP 111 730

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#ASX: The 9,000 countdown has begun.

On August 7, 2025, the #ASX index surged to an all-time high of 8,856.9 points, driven by a rare mix of catalysts: soaring gold prices lifting major miners, expectations of simultaneous easing by the RBA and the Fed boosting bank and media-tech stocks, and steady demand for iron ore and base metals pushing BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue higher. A global “risk-on” sentiment amid falling U.S. yields and short-covering added extra fuel.

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Five key drivers that could push the #ASX to new heights:

1.China’s 2025 infrastructure push: Beijing is preparing an expanded lending package for transport and energy projects. This fuels iron ore and copper imports — directly boosting revenues for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, which make up ~25% of the index.
2.Gold rally continues: The expected Fed rate cut in September pressures U.S. yields and supports gold prices. Even a move toward $3,500/oz could revive Northern Star, Evolution, and Newmont, adding dozens of points to the index.
3.Dovish RBA + weak AUD: Further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (with AUDUSD staying below 0.64) make domestic loans cheaper while increasing export margins for resource and agri stocks.
4.Green metals boom: Rising global demand for lithium, nickel, and rare earths for batteries and renewables is driving up valuations of Pilbara Minerals, IGO, Lynas, and others — boosting the materials sector’s contribution to index growth.
5.Housing sector reversal: Lower mortgage rates and tax breaks for first-home buyers are lifting transaction volumes and online demand via REA Group. Rising home prices traditionally ignite banking and construction stocks, creating a multiplier effect on the index.

#ASX has already climbed near the top — and it has at least five major “boosters” for another rally. According to FreshForex, the index could break above 9,000 even faster if three extra catalysts come into play:

1.Superannuation fund inflows shift toward equities, adding long-term capital.
2.Buybacks and M&A by giants like BHP and Commonwealth Bank reduce float and boost EPS.
3.A fresh IPO wave of lithium and AI startups injects new tech momentum.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 8, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some intraday sellers after the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July meeting showed that policymakers remain concerned about the potential negative impact of US tariff increases on the domestic economy. This increases uncertainty about the likely timing of the BoJ's next rate hike. In addition, the overall positive risk sentiment undermines the Japanese yen's position as a safe-haven currency, which in turn helps the USD/JPY pair to rebound from the 146.70 support zone during Friday's Asian session.

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However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates before the end of the year. On the contrary, traders now see a greater likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs at its September policy meeting. This, in turn, should hold back any significant recovery of the US dollar (USD) from its two-week low reached on Thursday and help limit deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out in the near term.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.05, SL 147.50, TP 146.15

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 11, 2025 EURUSD​

EURUSD:​



The euro is getting a boost from better market vibes about the possibility of the war between Ukraine and Russia ending. News about a possible meeting between Trump and Putin next week has some people hoping for a deal that could end the fighting in Ukraine.

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The EUR/USD pair is also strengthening as the US dollar (USD) struggles after weak US economic data prompted traders to price in the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 89% probability of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting. Traders are also pricing in a 58 basis point probability of another rate cut before the end of this year.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that three interest rate cuts this year would likely be appropriate. Bowman added that the clear weakening of the labor market outweighs the risks of future inflation.

Traders are likely to watch for upcoming US consumer inflation data due on Tuesday, followed by preliminary UK second-quarter GDP data and US producer price index (PPI) data on Thursday.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1700, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1770

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 12 August 2025 #NQ100

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 22750.0–23000.0. Currently, investment transactions are being made above the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers. #NQ100: BUY 23147.7-23425.2, TP1-23702.7, TP2-24351.4.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 23200.0–23300.0. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above this range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 11.08.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 23425.2.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 23147.7.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 11.08.2025–23702.7.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ – 24351.4.#NQ100: BUY 23147.7-23425.2, TP1-23702.7, TP2-24351.4.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23147.7-23425.2, Take Profit 1-23702.7, Take Profit 2-24351.4.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crypto is taking off: BTC at $122k — are new records next?

On 11 August BTC climbed above $122,000 — just a step from July’s record of $123,091. Ethereum is holding at multi-year highs. By market estimates, total crypto market capitalization is back above $4T.

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Momentum came from net inflows into crypto ETPs/ETFs (especially spot ETFs on BTC/ETH), upbeat signals around expanding access for U.S. retirement accounts to alternative assets, and bets on a Fed rate cut this fall — together accelerating prices and liquidity in the leaders.



Five trend accelerators:

1. Institutions & policy. July–August brought signals about broadening the menu of assets for U.S. retirement plans — the market expects “long” money.

2. ETF/ETP effect. Net inflows into BTC and ETH products are accelerating — a direct catalyst for spot demand.

3. Macro. Expectations of a dovish Fed lower real yields and support “scarce” assets like digital gold.

4. Supply. The recent halving and coins leaving exchanges reduce free float — price reacts more strongly to the same demand.

5. ETH stack. L2 activity, spot-ETF inflows and tokenization of real-world assets strengthen ETH’s role and typically kick off altseason.

FreshForex view. Current BTCUSD and ETHCUSD levels fit tactical longs — only with strict risk control and tracking CPI and net inflows/outflows in spot ETFs on BTC/ETH.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2025 USD​JPY

USD/JPY:

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The dollar/yen pair is supported by the wide yield differential between the U.S. and Japan: U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively high, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance and ongoing stimulus programs keep Japan’s real rates deeply negative. This structurally weakens the yen and sustains demand for USD against JPY.

Japan’s trade balance and energy import dynamics make the currency account sensitive to global price fluctuations and to moves in the global dollar, which amplifies trend moves in USDJPY when U.S. yields rise. Verbal interventions by Japanese officials can slow the pace but rarely reverse the trend without support from BoJ policy.

In the short term, the combination of “expensive” dollar yields and dovish BoJ rhetoric creates a likelihood of testing 148.50, where some players may lock in results ahead of new U.S. data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 148.05, SL 147.80, TP 148.50

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 14 August 2025 XAUUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

XAUUSD: SELL 3367.25-3404.75, TP1-3329.75, TP2-3240.55.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3344.00–3362.00. At the moment, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3349.00–3359.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within this range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

• The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 12.08.2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3367.25.

• The lower boundary of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3404.75.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 12.08.2025–3329.75.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3240.55. XAUUSD: SELL 3367.25-3404.75, TP1-3329.75, TP2-3240.55.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3367.25-3404.75, Take Profit 1–3329.75, Take Profit 2–3240.55.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Summer RALLY-2025: What’s Driving #SP500 and #NQ100 Higher?

Dear readers, earlier on June 25, 2025, in our article “Unexpected Surges and Drops in the Indices” we noted the U.S. economy’s readiness for bullish sentiment.

On August 12, 2025 #SP500 climbed above 6,400, and #NQ100 hit a new high above 23,800 as U.S. inflation came in softer than expected, prompting the market to believe in an imminent Fed rate cut — money became “cheaper,” making stocks more attractive. Tech giants and all things AI — chips and cloud — are in high demand and lead the gains. Many companies have reported earnings above forecasts, and buybacks are underway, supporting prices. A weaker dollar is also boosting the revenues of multinational corporations. As a result, investors are buying more aggressively, pushing indices to new records.

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5 Reasons Why #S&P500 and #NQ100 Could Hold Their Ground Until the End of 2025:

Dovish Fed. Rate cuts → cheaper money → higher valuations.

AI and data center boom. Growing demand for chips, cloud, and software lifts the tech sector.

Profits + buybacks. Companies beat forecasts and repurchase shares → EPS growth and price support.

Low yields and weaker dollar. Stocks look more attractive than bonds; exporters earn more easily.

Domestic investment in the U.S. Localized production and infrastructure fuel demand for tech and industry.

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The foundation of #SP500 and #NQ100 growth is profit. The earnings season added confidence: market participants liked the “breadth” of earnings beats and the resilience of margins among major issuers — the third pillar of the current rally. According to FreshForex, soft inflation and expectations of a Fed rate cut create a window of opportunity for long positions in #SP500 and #NQ100.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 15, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in retail sales

EURUSD:

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The euro continues to depreciate after the release of the July U.S. Producer Price Index, which rose by 0.4% m/m—above market consensus. The data strengthened expectations that the Fed will not rush to cut rates at the September meeting, which supports the U.S. dollar.

The euro’s position is further weakened by the European Central Bank’s rhetoric: Governing Council members unanimously reaffirmed their readiness to ease further if eurozone economic activity remains sluggish.

The European Commission already lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the bloc, increasing the discount on the currency. The spread between 10-year benchmarks widened again: 10-year USTs trade near 4.46%, while German Bunds are only 2.09%. A nearly 240 bps differential fuels capital outflows from euro assets into dollar ones, exerting fundamental pressure on the pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1565

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