Global Markets Rattled by Escalating Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Surge.
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Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility so far today as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked investors, pushing oil prices higher and sending mixed signals across equities, currencies, and bond markets.
Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Conflict Deepens
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s sharp 4% surge. US benchmark crude climbed to $75 per barrel. Investors are increasingly concerned that the conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for global crude exports. Although previous regional tensions have led to brief oil price spikes without long-term supply issues, the intensifying rhetoric this time is triggering stronger reactions.
Trump Issues Dire Warning to Iran
Investor fears were exacerbated after former President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, escalating tensions further. Within hours, Trump went from advocating a nuclear deal to demanding ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,’ hinting at imminent US intervention. As geopolitical risks soared, demand for traditional safe havens such as the US dollar and Treasuries spiked.
Investors were also left disappointed by the lack of progress at the recent G7 summit in Canada. The group failed to make headway on trade issues, just weeks ahead of Trump’s July deadline for additional tariffs. Trump criticized both Japan and the EU for being ‘tough’ negotiators and for not offering satisfactory deals.
US Markets Close Lower; Asian Markets Mixed; Japan Shrugs Off Export Slump
Wall Street sank under the weight of surging oil prices and disappointing US retail sales data. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 5,982.72, the Dow dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80, and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 19,521.09. Weak consumer spending raised concerns that the backbone of the US economy might be faltering. Additionally, solar stocks took a hit after speculation that Congress may phase out clean energy tax credits. Enphase Energy dropped 24%, while First Solar lost 17.9%.
Asian equities painted a mixed picture. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% to 38,803.10 despite data showing an 11% drop in Japanese exports to the US, primarily due to tariffs on autos. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, and Australia's ASX 200 lost 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi managed a 0.6% gain.
Fed Meeting in Focus; Minimal Forecast Adjustments Expected
The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, with markets broadly expecting no rate changes. Forecast updates due Wednesday are likely to include modest GDP upgrades but little change to inflation and unemployment projections. The Fed’s previous dot plot suggested two rate cuts per year through mid-2027, and little deviation is expected in the June update.
Dollar Finds Footing Amid Global Jitters
The US dollar regained its safe-haven appeal, rebounding nearly 1% against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro since late last week. While structural challenges tied to Trump’s trade policies have weighed on the greenback in 2025, investors continue to favour the dollar in times of global stress. The dollar edged down 0.2% to 144.90 yen on Wednesday, while the euro ticked up 0.2% to $1.150, and the British pound strengthened to $1.346 following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.
Outlook: Risk Sentiment Hinges on Geopolitics and Fed Clarity
Markets remain on edge as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Fed’s policy statement and projections for clues on the central bank’s outlook. As uncertainty swirls, volatility is expected to persist across commodities, currencies, and equities in the short term.
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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
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