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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 13, 2025 EURUSD

Events to pay attention today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Foreign trade balance

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:



EUR/USD interrupted its four-day winning streak, retreating from 1.1631, its highest level since October 2021, and is currently trading around 1.1530 in Asian hours on Friday. The pair is depreciating as the US dollar (USD) gains support as traders shift to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Israel has attacked dozens of targets across Iran to eliminate its nuclear programme. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel could face a missile and drone strike after Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, Axios reports.

In addition, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement: ‘Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not participating in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is to protect American troops in the region.’ ‘President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary measures to protect our troops and are in close contact with our regional partners.’ ‘Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,’ Rubio added.

However, the decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited, as the US dollar (USD) may face difficulties after US President Donald Trump's new threat to extend steel tariffs from 23 June to imported ‘steel-derived products’ such as household appliances, e.g. dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially introduced in March at 25% and then doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time that the scope of the duties has been expanded.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1530, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1440


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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 16, 2025 GBPUSD​


Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Empire Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:




The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below Friday's three-year high, although it lacks bearish conviction and is trading in a narrow range around 1.3500 during the Asian session.

The latest UK consumer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting, which will play a key role in influencing the British pound (GBP). In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, which will affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate and give a significant boost to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, weaker UK GDP data released on Friday, which showed that the economy contracted more than expected by 0.3% in April, reinforced expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. On the other hand, the US dollar is receiving some support from the global flight to safe assets caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is helping to limit the growth of the GBP/USD pair.

However, growing recognition that the US central bank will also resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of weakening inflation in the US is holding back dollar bulls from aggressive bets. Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment acts as a barrier to the dollar as a safe haven and provides some support to the GBP/USD pair, which requires some caution before confirming that spot prices have peaked.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3550, SL 1.3530, TP 1.3640

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.06.2025 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 106500, SL 108000, TP 98000



Bitcoin is once again making an attempt to push higher toward uncharted highs. Although this recent upward move still fits within the bounds of the previously considered bearish scenario, any continued rise beyond current levels may require a reassessment of the outlook.
For now, the current rally appears to be corrective — most likely a zigzag structure. If this assumption holds, the market should soon reverse lower from current levels, initiating a third wave within a broader bearish impulse. Such a development could result in significant downside, especially if the broader correction intensifies.

Therefore, the current situation continues to offer favorable conditions for initiating short positions, with a clear risk/reward profile.

Investment idea: SELL 106500, SL 108000, TP 98000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Brent and WTI: Is $100 oil just Around the corner?

#Brent and #WTI prices are steadily climbing, now reaching $73.30 and $71.15 per barrel. The market is showing strong signs of an upward trend, similar to what we saw in 2021–2022. With global demand picking up and increased interest from major market participants, analysts believe prices could soon push past the $100 mark — especially amid ongoing global tensions and rising consumption.

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Standard Chartered forecasts Brent reaching $95 by December 2025, while some outlooks go even higher. What’s fueling this potential rally? Top 5 reasons oil may surge in the coming months:

• Global instability: Tensions in the Middle East and unrest in key producers like Venezuela and Nigeria raise concerns about supply disruptions. Any flare-ups could push prices to $90, $95 — or beyond.
  
• Economic recovery: Asia and developing economies are bouncing back fast. With industrial activity rising, so does energy demand — including for oil.
  
• OPEC+ tight supply policy: OPEC+ is likely to maintain production cuts to support prices and keep the market balanced.
  
• Low reserves, limited expansion: Stockpiles remain tight, and exploration has lagged in recent years. If demand spikes, producers may struggle to scale output quickly.
  
• Aviation and petrochemicals rebound: Global air traffic and plastic manufacturing are growing, increasing demand for jet fuel and oil-based feedstocks.

Together, these factors create a strong setup for upward momentum in Brent and WTI prices. According to FreshForex analysts, the current levels could mark the beginning of a new growth cycle.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:



Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%.

Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters.

The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty.

Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 19 June 2025 #XAUUSD


XAUUSD: SELL 3400.37-3437.87, TP1-3362.87, TP2-3234.07

• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 3365.00–3395.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: SELL 3400.37-3437.87, TP1-3362.87, TP2-3234.07.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3382.00–3392.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates the strength of sellers.

• The area of favourable prices for selling from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the low of 18 June 2025.

• The lower border of zone 1/4 is quoted at 3400.37.

• The lower limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 3437.87.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 18.06.2025–3362.87.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of ZNKZ-3234.07. XAUUSD: SELL 3400.37-3437.87, TP1-3362.87, TP2-3234.07.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3400.37-3437.87, Take Profit 1–3362.87, Take Profit 2–3234.07.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 20, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate found some room for growth, rising above the 1.3450 level after an early technical rebound from the 1.3400 mark. Recently, broad market flows have favored the US dollar amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, but on Thursday, US markets were closed for a national holiday, giving Cable some room to maneuver and weakening demand for the US dollar.

According to a CBS reporter on social network X (formerly Twitter), President Donald Trump may be considering ordering the US military to strike an Iranian nuclear weapons facility. If the Trump administration decides to implement this proposal, it will be the first case of preventive use of US military force since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Citing an Israeli government representative, The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli government is awaiting a final decision from the Trump administration within the next 24-48 hours.

Reports citing three different diplomats confirmed that US administration officials, notably US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Wiggle, are in regular contact with their Iranian counterpart, helping to soften some of the emotional impact that hit over-the-counter traders on Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly made it clear to US envoy Witkoff that the Iranian government is willing to show “flexibility” on its nuclear plans and resume negotiations, but only if Israel stops its missile strikes on distant targets. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he would travel to Geneva on Friday to meet with his European counterparts.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3460, TP 1.3560

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Energy giants surge: Top 5 stocks to watch

June 2025 was marked by heightened volatility across the global energy sector. Amid fluctuating oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing industry transformation, major oil and gas companies delivered mixed results. Let’s break down the key drivers behind the moves in Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil.

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Here are the five leaders that set the tone this June:

1. Shell: Steady growth driven by strategic adjustments. The stock climbed 7% thanks to a pragmatic dividend policy and a $3.5B share buyback plan. LNG Canada project developments also boosted investor confidence.

2. TotalEnergies: Strong performance backed by green energy push. Shares rose 5.5% after the acquisition of a renewable energy portfolio and a dividend increase. Conservative production forecast (+3% for 2025) and investment in clean energy kept demand strong.

3. BP: Recovery supported by oil price rebound. BP added around 7% on oil market stabilization and a new share buyback program. Although production declined due to asset sales, higher profitability in the oil segment offset the drop.

4. Chevron: Notable gains fueled by new projects. Chevron advanced 7.5% following the launch of the Ballymore field in the Gulf of Mexico. Expanded buyback and dividend plans further attracted investors.

5. Exxon Mobil: Stable upward momentum from production expansion. Shares jumped nearly 10% as Q1 profits reached $7.7B. Liquefied natural gas development and output growth targets energized traders.

FreshForex analysts believe the rally in energy majors may continue in the near term. Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil remain strong picks for active investors.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSD​

An event to watch out for today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Manufacturing PMI

16:45 EET. USD - Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:



The EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.1480 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair.

Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1500, SL 1.1460, TP 1.1580

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 24.06.2025 #EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

16:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

17:00 EET. GBP - CB Consumer Confidence

EURUSD: SELL 1.1475, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1250



The previously discussed updated wave scenario remains relevant. But the price is in no hurry to go down. At the moment, to all appearances, a correction is forming, the exit from which is expected to be downward. It is conditioned by the possible development of the lengthening wave 3 of the descending impulse.

The mentioned correction is considered as the second wave in the impulse included in the wave 3. If this is indeed the case, we may see a prolonged downward movement in the future.

For this reason, we should continue to consider sell trades as the most promising in terms of potential profit. You can enter short positions when the current local minimum is updated.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1475, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1250.

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