Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 12, 2025
After testing the price channel line on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has moved upward, likely entering a corrective phase following the price movement since January 10.
The nearest corrective level is at 149.38, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A breakout above this level would allow the price to continue its correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, targeting 151.30.
On the four-hour chart, the price has moved above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend area. We expect the price to rise toward the initial target level of 149.38.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41FjRt7
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Instaforex Analysis
Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Wed Mar 12, 2025 6:59 am
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Thu Mar 13, 2025 6:03 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 13, 2025
Yesterday, U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown in February, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in January, which was also above the forecast of 2.9%. However, the markets were prepared for this news and barely reacted, as media reports suggest they are more concerned about the impacts of trade wars. As a result, the main focus now shifts to indicators for the current month. March data will start to come in after the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 19, and investors are eager to see if the Fed will take any precautionary measures, especially since this meeting is expected to be extended. In the meantime, market sentiment will be influenced by speculators.
The daily chart indicates that the euro's decline from 1.0949 to 1.0882 is merely a technical correction. The Marlin oscillator has pulled back from the lower overbought zone, suggesting that the price has enough space for a deeper correction, potentially down to 1.0667, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward movement. The price had risen too far from the MACD line due to emotional trading (by 5.5 figures). To confirm a move towards the first support level at 1.0762, the price must consolidate below 1.0882. Conversely, for the uptrend to continue, the price needs to break above 1.0949, as the 1.0882-1.0949 range serves as a consolidation zone.
The four-hour chart presents complications for both scenarios. A decline might only reach the MACD line around 1.0806, which coincides with the March 10 low. Additionally, it is possible that the price may reverse from the 1.0762 support level. In this case, a brief dip below the MACD line would be seen as a false signal, further reinforcing the uptrend.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4iM9ZVp
Yesterday, U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown in February, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in January, which was also above the forecast of 2.9%. However, the markets were prepared for this news and barely reacted, as media reports suggest they are more concerned about the impacts of trade wars. As a result, the main focus now shifts to indicators for the current month. March data will start to come in after the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 19, and investors are eager to see if the Fed will take any precautionary measures, especially since this meeting is expected to be extended. In the meantime, market sentiment will be influenced by speculators.
The daily chart indicates that the euro's decline from 1.0949 to 1.0882 is merely a technical correction. The Marlin oscillator has pulled back from the lower overbought zone, suggesting that the price has enough space for a deeper correction, potentially down to 1.0667, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward movement. The price had risen too far from the MACD line due to emotional trading (by 5.5 figures). To confirm a move towards the first support level at 1.0762, the price must consolidate below 1.0882. Conversely, for the uptrend to continue, the price needs to break above 1.0949, as the 1.0882-1.0949 range serves as a consolidation zone.
The four-hour chart presents complications for both scenarios. A decline might only reach the MACD line around 1.0806, which coincides with the March 10 low. Additionally, it is possible that the price may reverse from the 1.0762 support level. In this case, a brief dip below the MACD line would be seen as a false signal, further reinforcing the uptrend.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4iM9ZVp
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Fri Mar 14, 2025 7:46 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for March 14, 2025
On Wednesday, the British pound fell by 12 pips, causing the Marlin oscillator's signal line to drop below the support level of 0.0216. This raises the chances of the price testing the range of 1.2816 to 1.2847 before the Federal Reserve meeting on March 19. If the meeting does not significantly impact the pound, this range testing may continue until the Bank of England meeting on March 20.
The nearest obstacle for the price in reaching the target range is the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is situated around 1.2910. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has slightly widened its consolidation range, now indicated by a gray rectangle.
The price may prefer to move sideways within the 1.2910 to 1.3001 range. In this scenario, a break below the 0.0216 support level on the daily chart by the Marlin oscillator would signal a typical cooldown before potential further growth. Overall, the pound appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3FIAMDG
On Wednesday, the British pound fell by 12 pips, causing the Marlin oscillator's signal line to drop below the support level of 0.0216. This raises the chances of the price testing the range of 1.2816 to 1.2847 before the Federal Reserve meeting on March 19. If the meeting does not significantly impact the pound, this range testing may continue until the Bank of England meeting on March 20.
The nearest obstacle for the price in reaching the target range is the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is situated around 1.2910. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has slightly widened its consolidation range, now indicated by a gray rectangle.
The price may prefer to move sideways within the 1.2910 to 1.3001 range. In this scenario, a break below the 0.0216 support level on the daily chart by the Marlin oscillator would signal a typical cooldown before potential further growth. Overall, the pound appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3FIAMDG
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Mon Mar 17, 2025 5:57 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 17, 2025
After Friday's price consolidation below the 1.0882 level, the euro is attempting to rise above this level once again. The expectation is that it will fluctuate within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949 until the Fed announces its monetary policy. This movement may indicate an intention to continue rising towards the target of 1.1027.
If the euro closes below 1.0882 today, there could be increased volatility on Wednesday, potentially pushing down to the support level at 1.0762 before rebounding with the aim of reaching the target of 1.1027. The Marlin oscillator has declined from the lower boundary of the overbought zone, suggesting that there is potential for upward momentum to build.
On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, which was tested from above on Friday. This reduces the likelihood of breaking through this line in a stable market at 1.0860. It appears the price will continue to consolidate with upward pressure. However, if it consolidates below the MACD line at 1.0860, the likelihood of a wider price range movement on Wednesday will increase.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41SLdfJ
After Friday's price consolidation below the 1.0882 level, the euro is attempting to rise above this level once again. The expectation is that it will fluctuate within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949 until the Fed announces its monetary policy. This movement may indicate an intention to continue rising towards the target of 1.1027.
If the euro closes below 1.0882 today, there could be increased volatility on Wednesday, potentially pushing down to the support level at 1.0762 before rebounding with the aim of reaching the target of 1.1027. The Marlin oscillator has declined from the lower boundary of the overbought zone, suggesting that there is potential for upward momentum to build.
On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, which was tested from above on Friday. This reduces the likelihood of breaking through this line in a stable market at 1.0860. It appears the price will continue to consolidate with upward pressure. However, if it consolidates below the MACD line at 1.0860, the likelihood of a wider price range movement on Wednesday will increase.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41SLdfJ
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Wed Mar 19, 2025 5:46 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 19, 2025
We've arrived at the key event of the week—the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, but we are eager to see what Jerome Powell will say about the rapidly evolving political and economic landscape. The U.S. economy is facing two major challenges: inflation and a recession. The Fed's perception of which issue is the bigger threat will dictate Powell's tone. Inflation has been the dominant concern in recent years and is on the rise again, ensuring it will be a focal point. The economic slowdown has crossed a critical threshold, but the Fed tends to wait for more data before making any moves, likely indicating a "wait-and-see approach." The Fed has the flexibility to cut rates by 0.5% if necessary, given the current relatively high level. Ultimately, we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its rate projections, indicating three rate cuts by the end of the year, which may reveal what Powell might leave unsaid. Unfortunately, this does not clarify how the market will react to the Fed's decision; it only highlights the uncertainty surrounding it and the future actions of major players.
On the weekly chart, the price is testing the MACD line, signaling either a possible upward breakout or a decisive downward reversal.
On the daily chart, a divergence has formed between price and the Marlin oscillator, raising further questions rather than providing clarity. On the four-hour chart, the price appears poised, simply waiting for a signal.
Even if we had advance access to Powell's speech, it would provide little insight into the actions of major market players. As mentioned in previous reviews, the U.S. economy seems to be more resilient in its tariff battles with Europe. We expect a medium- to long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar, though we are uncertain whether that trend will begin today.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Y0oIUF
We've arrived at the key event of the week—the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, but we are eager to see what Jerome Powell will say about the rapidly evolving political and economic landscape. The U.S. economy is facing two major challenges: inflation and a recession. The Fed's perception of which issue is the bigger threat will dictate Powell's tone. Inflation has been the dominant concern in recent years and is on the rise again, ensuring it will be a focal point. The economic slowdown has crossed a critical threshold, but the Fed tends to wait for more data before making any moves, likely indicating a "wait-and-see approach." The Fed has the flexibility to cut rates by 0.5% if necessary, given the current relatively high level. Ultimately, we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its rate projections, indicating three rate cuts by the end of the year, which may reveal what Powell might leave unsaid. Unfortunately, this does not clarify how the market will react to the Fed's decision; it only highlights the uncertainty surrounding it and the future actions of major players.
On the weekly chart, the price is testing the MACD line, signaling either a possible upward breakout or a decisive downward reversal.
On the daily chart, a divergence has formed between price and the Marlin oscillator, raising further questions rather than providing clarity. On the four-hour chart, the price appears poised, simply waiting for a signal.
Even if we had advance access to Powell's speech, it would provide little insight into the actions of major market players. As mentioned in previous reviews, the U.S. economy seems to be more resilient in its tariff battles with Europe. We expect a medium- to long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar, though we are uncertain whether that trend will begin today.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Y0oIUF
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Thu Mar 20, 2025 6:28 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 20, 2025
The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and our expectation that economic risks would be highlighted was correct. Both the accompanying statement and Powell's speech emphasized these concerns. The central bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.7%, raised the inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, and increased the unemployment forecast to 4.4%. However, markets, including stocks, did not react negatively. Investors likely anticipated even worse forecasts; in reality, the numbers do not appear bad, and there is no discussion of a recession. The Fed remains cautious and plans to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year.
On the daily chart, the euro has stayed within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949. The price attempted to break below 1.0882 but was prevented from doing so. Now, we expect the euro to break above 1.0949, which would open the path for further growth towards the target level of 1.1027, set at the low point on September 3, 2024. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator appears weak and may reconfigure into another pattern.
On the H4 chart, the price briefly dipped below the 1.0882 support level, while the Marlin oscillator made a false move below the zero line. A break above 1.0949, which coincides with a break above the MACD line, will signal a rally towards 1.1027.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kHsgFm
The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and our expectation that economic risks would be highlighted was correct. Both the accompanying statement and Powell's speech emphasized these concerns. The central bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.7%, raised the inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, and increased the unemployment forecast to 4.4%. However, markets, including stocks, did not react negatively. Investors likely anticipated even worse forecasts; in reality, the numbers do not appear bad, and there is no discussion of a recession. The Fed remains cautious and plans to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year.
On the daily chart, the euro has stayed within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949. The price attempted to break below 1.0882 but was prevented from doing so. Now, we expect the euro to break above 1.0949, which would open the path for further growth towards the target level of 1.1027, set at the low point on September 3, 2024. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator appears weak and may reconfigure into another pattern.
On the H4 chart, the price briefly dipped below the 1.0882 support level, while the Marlin oscillator made a false move below the zero line. A break above 1.0949, which coincides with a break above the MACD line, will signal a rally towards 1.1027.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kHsgFm
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Mon Mar 24, 2025 9:34 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support. News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today. At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region. The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.
However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions. Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region. Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday. From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954. On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4iAOnM9
Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support. News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today. At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region. The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.
However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions. Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region. Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday. From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954. On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4iAOnM9
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Fri Mar 28, 2025 5:27 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 28, 2025
Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. The tariff on vehicles will take effect on April 3, and the one on parts will begin on May 3. In response to this news, the yen weakened by 0.18%, and during the Asian session today, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 fell by 2.14%. Following the Nikkei 225, we expect the USD/JPY pair to decline as an instrument that partially retains its status as a "safe haven" and due to capital returning to Japan amid the steady, albeit slow, retreat of investors from U.S. Treasury bonds.
On the daily chart, the price has nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the target of 151.30. The Marlin oscillator is ready to reverse, and the price may return to support at 149.38. A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 145.91. A consolidation above 151.30 would only shift the current bearish scenario to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (152.70), where the Kijun line is approaching. Only a move above the Kijun line would create an alternative scenario with growth potential toward 154.56 as the initial target.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has created a broad, extended wedge, indicating a potential downward breakout. A drop below the Kijun line and the 150.16 level (the high from March 19) would confirm the breakout and aim for 149.38.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/440ODzr
Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. The tariff on vehicles will take effect on April 3, and the one on parts will begin on May 3. In response to this news, the yen weakened by 0.18%, and during the Asian session today, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 fell by 2.14%. Following the Nikkei 225, we expect the USD/JPY pair to decline as an instrument that partially retains its status as a "safe haven" and due to capital returning to Japan amid the steady, albeit slow, retreat of investors from U.S. Treasury bonds.
On the daily chart, the price has nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the target of 151.30. The Marlin oscillator is ready to reverse, and the price may return to support at 149.38. A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 145.91. A consolidation above 151.30 would only shift the current bearish scenario to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (152.70), where the Kijun line is approaching. Only a move above the Kijun line would create an alternative scenario with growth potential toward 154.56 as the initial target.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has created a broad, extended wedge, indicating a potential downward breakout. A drop below the Kijun line and the 150.16 level (the high from March 19) would confirm the breakout and aim for 149.38.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/440ODzr
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Mon Mar 31, 2025 4:40 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 31,2025
Market participants have again been gripped by fear due to Washington's intention to expand tariff duties by 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners. On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index plunged by 1.97%, and now the equity market may take the lead in shaping risk sentiment. If that happens, the euro may not withstand the pressure and could follow a medium-term downward trend.
On the daily chart, the single currency continues to climb. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, and formally, the price is moving toward the target level of 1.0955. There is time for this move, as the key developments are expected on April 3, when the new tariffs take effect. Investors will then begin reassessing risks based on those measures.
On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. This is a timely signal, as a consolidation above this resistance level would indicate that the bulls are ready to continue the rally toward 1.0955. The initial impulse came from the Marlin oscillator reversing off the zero line. The nearest support level is 1.0762. A break below it would open the way to the 1.0667 target. The direction of the S&P 500 index will influence the sustainability of the trend in either direction. For now, the situation remains uncertain.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/426Wr00
Market participants have again been gripped by fear due to Washington's intention to expand tariff duties by 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners. On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index plunged by 1.97%, and now the equity market may take the lead in shaping risk sentiment. If that happens, the euro may not withstand the pressure and could follow a medium-term downward trend.
On the daily chart, the single currency continues to climb. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, and formally, the price is moving toward the target level of 1.0955. There is time for this move, as the key developments are expected on April 3, when the new tariffs take effect. Investors will then begin reassessing risks based on those measures.
On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. This is a timely signal, as a consolidation above this resistance level would indicate that the bulls are ready to continue the rally toward 1.0955. The initial impulse came from the Marlin oscillator reversing off the zero line. The nearest support level is 1.0762. A break below it would open the way to the 1.0667 target. The direction of the S&P 500 index will influence the sustainability of the trend in either direction. For now, the situation remains uncertain.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/426Wr00
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Re: Instaforex Analysis
by IFX Bella » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:46 am
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 3, 2025
Starting today, U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% will apply to nearly all of America's trading partners. Market participants were prepared and refrained from panic, although equity indices weakened. In response, efforts to strengthen regional and global trade alliances have regained momentum. We immediately heard renewed focus on BRICS, ASEAN, APEC, and others. China, Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a new trade bloc.
Meanwhile, markets are still evaluating losses and opportunities. Against this backdrop, investors have begun to move away from the U.S. dollar, technically triggering upward moves in anti-dollar currencies. On the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is approaching the first target level at 1.0955. The next targets are 1.1027 and the broader target range of 1.1110/50. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory with significant upside potential.
On the H4 chart, yesterday evening's price showed a wide range—over 100 pips—directly above the MACD line, which currently reinforces that line and signals a strong short-term uptrend. This trend could only be broken if the price falls below the support level at 1.0762. In that case, the 1.0667 target would come into play.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3FRogC9
Starting today, U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% will apply to nearly all of America's trading partners. Market participants were prepared and refrained from panic, although equity indices weakened. In response, efforts to strengthen regional and global trade alliances have regained momentum. We immediately heard renewed focus on BRICS, ASEAN, APEC, and others. China, Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a new trade bloc.
Meanwhile, markets are still evaluating losses and opportunities. Against this backdrop, investors have begun to move away from the U.S. dollar, technically triggering upward moves in anti-dollar currencies. On the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is approaching the first target level at 1.0955. The next targets are 1.1027 and the broader target range of 1.1110/50. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory with significant upside potential.
On the H4 chart, yesterday evening's price showed a wide range—over 100 pips—directly above the MACD line, which currently reinforces that line and signals a strong short-term uptrend. This trend could only be broken if the price falls below the support level at 1.0762. In that case, the 1.0667 target would come into play.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3FRogC9
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