Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:21 am

AUD/USD: The aussie dives down, but there is strong support ahead

Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed certain optimism, "inspired" by the results of the March meeting of the RBA. The regulator took a cautiously optimistic stance, focusing on the positive aspects of the Australian macroeconomic reports. Contrary to the fears of many experts, the central bank did not discuss the issue of reducing the interest rate, leaving some hope for the preservation of the status quo. But today, market mood regarding the prospects of the Australian currency has changed dramatically: published data on GDP growth in Australia suggests that the option of easing monetary policy can not be dismissed. Moreover, according to a number of currency strategists, such a scenario should be considered as one of the main ones.

Data on the growth of the Australian economy was disappointing. What is alarming is not just the fact that the country's GDP slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year - it is a persistent trend towards a decrease in the key indicator. Thus, if in the first quarter of 2018, Australia's GDP was at the level of 1.1% (quarterly), in the second quarter it decreased to 0.9%, in the third – to 0.3%, and finally in the fourth – to 0.2%. The same dynamics is observed in annual terms of the indicator: I quarter – 3.2%, II – 3.1%, III – 2.7% and IV – 2.3%. Today's release was not only worse than forecasts, but it also marked a certain anti-record. For example, on a quarterly basis, the indicator showed the weakest growth dynamics since the third quarter of 2016.

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It is worth recalling that at its January meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia downwardly revised its forecast for economic growth this year - from 3.5% to 3%. However, the figures published today suggest that the RBA may return to this issue in the future, reducing its growth forecast to at least 2.8%. Extremely weak indicators for the fourth quarter cast doubt on the sustainability of the country's economic growth and, consequently, increases the likelihood of a response from the Australian regulator. As I mentioned above, some currency strategists warn their clients about the implementation of such a scenario.

So, in late February, experts from Westpac (one of the largest banks in Australia, included in the "big four" banks of the country) surprised traders with the fact that they had made a double RBA rate cut before the end of this year. At the same time, economists of this bank, at the beginning of the year, claimed that the regulator would leave the rate unchanged until the end of 2020. Such a sharp turn put some pressure on the Australian dollar, which was then offset by good data on the Australian labor market and neutral results of the March meeting.

Nevertheless, Westpac did not abandon its "dovish" forecast: moreover, today this opinion was supported by two more conglomerates - JPMorgan and Macquarie Bank. Analysts of these banks said that the Australian regulator will not be able to ignore the further slowdown in the economy, while there are no prerequisites for changing the situation at the moment, especially against the background of the slowdown in the PRC economy. Therefore, the RBA will have no other choice but to lower the interest rate - at least once before the end of this year. The opinion of several large banks is shared by many experts, who voiced their point of view following the release of disappointing data.

According to more restrained forecasts, the RBA will still hold a wait-and-see position, but if there are no clear and strong signals about economic recovery in the coming months, then the central bank will still lower the rate - especially if economists worsen GDP growth forecasts for this year to 2.6% .

After such an unexpected reversal in the market's general sentiment, the Australian dollar was under considerable pressure. Paired with the US dollar, the aussie is heading to the main support level of 0.70. This mark is a "price stronghold", which is difficult to break through, but even more difficult - to consolidate in the area of 69-68 figures. If you look at the weekly and monthly charts, you can see that the pair was under the 70th mark only in 2016 for the last time in a long time. After that, the bears made impulsive attempts to break through, but the price quickly returned to its usual niche.

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Therefore, despite the negative fundamental background for the aussie, short positions in the AUD/USD pair currently appear risky, with the price now in the area of 0.7030, that is very close to the key level of support. In this case, it is advisable to observe the behavior of the pair at the bottom of the 70th figure. If the bearish momentum fades, then a corrective pullback will probably follow (approximately to 0.7080, that is, to the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1), which, however, does not cancel the overall downward trend for the pair.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:59 am

Forecast for GBP/USD on March 8, 2019

Data on the growth of the Australian economy was disappointing. What is alarming is not just the fact that the country's GDP slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year - it is a persistent trend towards a decrease in the key indicator. Thus, if in the first quarter of 2018, Australia's GDP was at the level of 1.1% (quarterly), in the second quarter it decreased to 0.9%, in the third – to 0.3%, and finally in the fourth – to 0.2%. The same dynamics is observed in annual terms of the indicator: I quarter – 3.2%, II – 3.1%, III – 2.7% and IV – 2.3%. Today's release was not only worse than forecasts, but it also marked a certain anti-record. For example, on a quarterly basis, the indicator showed the weakest growth dynamics since the third quarter of 2016.

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On a smaller scale, H4, price convergence with the Marlin oscillator is being formed, which can be realized in a correction from the pound's fall from February 28, visually from the balance line to the daily. We do not expect a high correction, since the signal level of 1.3108 can assume the role of a split, that is, the level at which the price will be wound in a consolidation process.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:19 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 11, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Trade Balance and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Business Inventories m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1280.
Strong Resistance:1.1274.
Original Resistance: 1.1263.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1252.
Target Inner Area: 1.1226.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1200.
Original Support: 1.1189.
Strong Support: 1.1178.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1172.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:35 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 12, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final Private Payrolls q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1313.
Strong Resistance:1.1307.
Original Resistance: 1.1296.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1285.
Target Inner Area: 1.1259.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1233.
Original Support: 1.1222.
Strong Support: 1.1211.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1205.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:29 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 13, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Construction Spending m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1344.
Strong Resistance: 1.1338.
Original Resistance: 1.1327.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1316.
Target Inner Area: 1.1290.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1264.
Original Support: 1.1253.
Strong Support: 1.1242.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1236.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:29 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 14, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final CPI m/m and German Final CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1383.
Strong Resistance: 1.1376.
Original Resistance: 1.1365.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1354.
Target Inner Area: 1.1330.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1300.
Original Support: 1.1289.
Strong Support: 1.1278.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1271.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:01 am

USD/CAD approaching support, potential bounce!

USD/CAD is approaching our first support at 1.3241 (horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce to our major resistance level at 1.3347 (50% Fibonacci retracement) might occur. Stochastic (89,5,3) is also nearing support where we might see a bounce in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment, so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:03 am

USD/CHF approaching support, potential bounce!

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USD/CHF is approaching our first support at 1.0018 (horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur to our major resistance at 1.0054 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (34,5,3) is also nearing support where we might see a corresponding rise in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment, so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:21 am

Technical analysis: Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, Mar 19, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as Factory Orders m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1394.
Strong Resistance: 1.1387.
Original Resistance: 1.1376.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1365.
Target Inner Area: 1.1338.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1311.
Original Support: 1.1300.
Strong Support: 1.1289.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1282.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:42 am

EUR/USD. The dollar is getting cheaper ahead of the March Fed meeting

The dollar index continues to dive down. After reaching the local high of 97.26 on March 7 (a three-month high), the indicator started to actively give up its positions - the index is currently already at the level of 95.86. The nearly recoilless movement of the indicator indicates market alertness: the closer the date of the March Federal Reserve meeting, the more that traders actively get rid of the greenback. The nervousness of investors is understandable: after all, the so-called "Fed points" (dot plots) will be published on Wednesday, which will mark the likely actions of the regulator this year. For the first time in a long time, one of the hypothetical scenarios suggests a reduction in the rate. This fact does not make it possible for dollar bulls to develop an offensive in the foreign exchange market: in almost all pairs, the US currency has lost its advantage. The euro-dollar pair is no exception.

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However, "not a single Federal Reserve" lives the market today. Today, the growth of the EUR/USD pair is also spurred by good macroeconomic data from Europe, as well as a news background regarding the future prospects of Brexit. Thus, the ZEW Institute's sentiment index for the business environment in Germany showed the strongest increase in March over the last year. And although the indicator remained in the negative area, traders drew attention to the dynamics of its growth. In addition, the increase in the index as a whole in the eurozone also surpassed expectations, having updated its 10-month high. Against the background of a half-empty economic calendar, these releases were enough for EUR/USD bulls to test the middle of the 13th figure, especially against a weakened dollar.

The Brexit theme also makes it possible for the pair to be bullish. Although at the moment, no one can predict how the confrontation in the May-Parliament-Brussels triangle will end, one thing can be said with certainty: in the foreseeable future, there will be no "hard" Brexit. All other scenarios somehow "fit" the currency market, the only difference is how long the period of uncertainty lasts.

Despite the importance of the fundamental factors mentioned above, the Fed meeting is still the main engine of growth for the EUR/USD, or rather, expectations of its outcome. According to the expectations of most experts, the Fed will change its monetary policy forecast, reducing the number of expected rate increases from two to one. Also, the regulator may announce the suspension of the balance sheet reduction. In general, the text of the accompanying statement, as well as the rhetoric of Jerome Powell (who will hold a press conference), will be cautious in nature, implementing the "policy of patience".

If this scenario is implemented tomorrow, which is the basis for the market, the reaction of the dollar is unlikely to be large-scale. But any deviation from it will cause a fairly strong volatility. First of all, you should pay attention to the assessment of the latest US macroeconomic data. Nonfarm and CPI showed quite contradictory dynamics, therefore unpleasant surprises are possible for dollar bulls. Let me remind you that following a record increase in the number of people employed in January (by 311 thousand), this figure then fell to 20 thousand in February.

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Experts are still arguing over what caused such a sharp decline - seasonal factors, massive teacher strikes or systemic problems. By the way, the initial optimism about reducing the unemployment rate from 4% to 3.8% came to nothing, since this dynamic is explained by the return of government employees after a prolonged shutdown.

As for inflation, the situation is even worse. The increase in consumer price index in January was 1.8% compared to the same period last year, while the base PCE excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.9%. Thus, inflation slowed down compared with the period of last year, and this fact goes against the forecasts of the US central bank, whose members hoped to keep the key indicator at a two percent level. On the other hand, good data on wage growth in the United States may slightly smooth out the negative reaction - although the overall inflationary trend leaves much to be desired.

Thus, for the dollar, there are two potentially dangerous options for the event's development: if the Fed completely eliminates the likelihood of a rate hike this year, and if the Fed head allows the rate to drop in the foreseeable future. All other options will either have a neutral impact on the greenback, or strengthen its position throughout the market.

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In a technical point of view, the pair finally consolidated above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart (that is, above the mark of 1.1320) - EUR/USD bulls attacked this target for a week and a half. Now the pair has the potential to increase towards the next resistance level - the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to the price of 1.1390. The Golden Cross formed by the Ichimoku indicator also confirms the priority of an upward movement. However, the saturated events of the environment can turn the price by 180 degrees - especially if the Fed has shown unexpected optimism about tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year. If the regulator reduces the upper limit of the neutral range to 2.75% or even to the current 2.50%, the dollar will fall under the next wave of being sold.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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