LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:34 am

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The growth of GBP/USD slowed down today in view of publication of retail sales data from the UK. The indicator appeared to be less than forecast and reduced by 1.8% in monthly terms. On YoY basis it increased oinly by 1.7% against the expected growth by 3.4%. However, after significant growth in the beginning of the week the pound remains quite confident against US dollar and keeps trying to consolidate above 1.2850. The key support level is 1.2700. After breaking through it the "bulls" are likely to take a break which may lead to a correction to the level of 1.2400 in the medium term.
Today traders should pay attention to news from the USA namely changes in Markit Manufacturing PMI as well as compound Markit PMI.

Support and resistance
On D1 chart the price corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Band and slowed growth. MACD histogram is in the positive area and keeps the signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2760.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2690 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:26 am

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week the pair was traded controversial. In the beginning of the week the AUD was lowering due to the RBA meeting minutes, which confirmed the “dovish” policy and kept the interest rate on the minimum level. On Thursday and Friday the USD was lowering after the publication of the negative employment market and building data.
Yesterday the USD continued to fall due to the negative secondary business activity data. Despite the fact that the AUD/USD trading day closed in the red zone the whole dynamics is positive. The pair strongly consolidated above the level of 0.7500.
Today is ANZAC Day in Australia, so the banks don’t work and there is no news and publications, so the traders should pay attention to the USA Consumer Confidence publication (expected to be negative) and the New Home Sales data (expected to be negative, too).
On Wednesday the Australian Consumer Price Index is worth traders’ attention (expected to be positive). If it meets the expectations and the corresponding RBA decisions follows, the AUD will strengthen in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380, 0.7310.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7570, 0.7680, 0.7750.

Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7615, 0.7680, stop loss is at 0.7480.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7490 with the target at 0.7440, 0.7380, stop loss is at 0.7530.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:05 am

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The consolidation of the pair after the rapid growth on last Tuesday reflects the investors’ uncertainty in the further dynamics, as they are waiting for clearer signals. Yesterday in the first half of the day US dollar was strengthening, but the pair managed to keep its positions. Tonight's growth attempts of USD were also followed by the strengthening of GBP/USD which indicates slim chanses of the pair's quick return to monthly or even 2-weeks minimums. On Friday the UK GDP key data (expected to be positive) and the YoY USA GDP data (expected to be negative) are worth traders’ attention.
Today there is no significant news from the UK, and the Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation data (expected to be negative) and the Pending Home Sales data (expected to be negative) are to be published today in the USA.
The consolidation of the pair until Friday is expected.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3035, 1.3200.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.

Trading scenario
Open short positions at the current price with the targets at 1.2780, 1.2700, stop loss is at 1.2930.
Buy the pair at the level of 1.2930 with the target at 1.3035 and stop loss at 1.2890.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:28 am

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
In the beginning of the previous week the pair USD/JPY reversed from its 5-month minimum. The growth of yen stopped after the publication of Japanese trading balance (much worse than forecast) last Thursday. This week the growth of the pair continued despite the fall of USD. The pair continued to weaken after yesterday's decision of the Bank of Japan to keep the interest rate unchanged in the minimum level. The pair reached its 4-weeks minimum and broke through the resistance level of 111.20. A number of important macroeconomic releases were published in Japan tonight: consumer price index, labor market data, production output forecast, and the volume of retail sales. All indicators lost a number of positions but investors failed to show any evident reaction so far.
No important releases from Japan are to be expected until next week. From the USA the market is waiting for the GDP data with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2). PMI Chicago (also with a negative forecast) is due at 15:15 (GMT+2), and consimer sentiment index with a neutral outlook will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). Statements by FOMC members Harket and Brainard are due at 19:15 (GMT+2) and 20:30 (GMT+2) respectively.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the upward correction.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 110.20, 108.90, 107.40.
Resistance levels: 111.20, 112.20, 113.20, 114.00.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened at the market price wuth targets at 112.20, 113.20 and stop-loss at 110.30.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 110.20 with target at 108.90 and stop-loss at 111.10.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon May 01, 2017 4:01 am

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last Friday a number of important releases came from New Zealand: trading balance and construction permits. Although March trading balance showed stable growth in March, it appeared to be less than forecast. The number of construction permits fell considerably in comparison with the previous period. All these factors had a negative impact on the dynamics of the pair that has been falling for the whole previous week and updated 11-months minimums after reaching the level of 0.6850. The pair weakened in view of US dollar's being under the influence of mixed factors that the investors perceive as "hawkish". This is especially important in view of the upcoming FOMC decision on the interest rate that is expected to be made on Wednesday, May 3 at 20:00 (GMT+2).

No important releases are expected from New Zealand today. From the USA, on the contrary, certain important data are due: a statement by the US Minister of Finance Stephen Mnuchin at 13:45 (GMT+2), information on personal income and expenditure with mixed forecasts (income decreases, and expenditure goes up which indicates slower economy rates) at 14:30 (GMT+2), and at 16:00 (GMT+2) — Manufacturing PMI and Inflation Build-Up Index (both with negative outlooks also indicating slower economy growth). In case the forecasts prove true, Wednesday decision on the interest rate will be under strong "dovish" influence. Today's speech by Stephen Mnuchin is to clarify many things. One may expect his rhetorics to determine the dynamics of the pair (and all other USD pairs) this week.
The main scenario for today will be further weakening of the pair.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6710, 0.6600.
Resistance levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.6800, 0.6710 and stop-loss at 0.6910.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.6865 with targets at 0.6910, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6820.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue May 02, 2017 6:09 am

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of Bollinger Bands, having formed 5 consecutive closes below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, having reached its critical oversold levels.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing from below the border of the oversold zone that coincide with its longer MA. The Composite keeps developing Bullish dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.79 (March lows), 16.38 (October 2015 highs), 16.15 (November 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 17.08 (October 2016 lows), 17.19 (December 2016 highs), 17.67 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing a strong support near 16.80. Indicators suggest a high chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.08, 17.19 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.70 with the target at 16.38 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed May 03, 2017 7:22 am

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Yesterday Brent consolidated in view of the publishing of the API report on weekly changes in the US oil reserves. The reserves of four main oil products in the USA decreased by over 4 million barrels which helped the trading instrument consolidate above 50.80. Along with this, oil market continues to experience pressure due to uncertainty about the extension of OPEC agreement on the limitation of oil production for the second half of 2017. Moreover, fuel production in the USA has reached a maximum level since August 2015 which puts additional pressure on oil. At the same time the UAE Minister of Oil stated it was reasonable to extend the agreement and pointed out that full solidarity of its members was needed to reach the goal.

A key event that may considerably impact the dynamics of the trading instruments is the OPEC summit that will take place on May 25 in Vienna. Today the US Department of Energy will publish its report on weekly changes of commercial oil and petrochemicals reserves. Specialists expect them to decrease for the fourth week in a row which will lead to the strenghtening of Brent Crude Oil. Also attention today should be paid to the decision of the US regulator on the interest rate.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart the instrument is correcting in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downwards while the price range has widened which is a ground for the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone maintaining the sell signal. Stochastic has turned upwards at the border of the oversold zone. Indicators don't give a clear signal for entering the market, therefore it would be wise to use sell and buy stop orders.

Support levels: 50.80, 50.64, 50.49, 50.32, 50.19.
Resistance levels: 51.10, 51.25, 51.37, 51.60, 51.83.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 50.75 with targets at 50.30, 50.10 and stop-loss at 51.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 51.10 with targets at 51.60 and stop-loss at 50.90. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu May 04, 2017 4:28 am

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Canadian dollar has been falling against USD for two weeks which causes active growth of USD/CAD.

This week the pair broke through a strong resistance level of 1.3700 around which it stayed last February. The fall of the Canadian currency happened in the absence of growth of US dollar that remains in the narrow flat for the second week and in view of a small number of important releases from Canada. The most likely fundamental reasons for this dynamics may be falling oil prices that Canadian dollar has always been sensitive for. Another strong factor is the growth of return on American bonds. Recently this factor has been one of the main reasons for the decrease of all reserve currencies against USD.

The most important news of today will be the data on Canadian trade balance at 14:30 (GMT+2). A small reduction of balance deficiency from CAD 0.97 to 0.80 trln is expected which is a positive factor. At the same time the forecast for the US trading balance states the deficiency in the amount of $900 mln. The data on the volume of industrial orders from the USA will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to drop to 0.4% which will have a negative impact on USD. A statement by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz is scheduled for 22:25 (GMT+2).
A likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's strengthening.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is returning to the upward movement zone in which it has remained since last May. The support line of this trend being also the lower border of channel D1 (blue) has confirmed its strength several times. The upper zone of this range around the levels of 1.4030-1.4160 may be the target of the pair.
Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3450.
Resistance levels: 1.3840, 1.4030, 1.4160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3840, 1.4030 and stop-loss at 1.3640.
Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3600, 1.3535 and stop-loss at 1.3800.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri May 05, 2017 6:09 am

USD/CHF: technical analysis

USD/CHF, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to turn up just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite starts forming a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility.

USD/CHF, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI turned up having bounced off the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, showing a divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.9830 (March lows), 0.9780 (December 2015 lows), 0.9710 (February 2010 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.9950 (May 2016 highs), 1.0001 (local highs), 1.0044 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is approaching its strong support level near 0.9830. There is a chance of an upward rebound.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.9950, 1.0001, 1.0044 and stop-loss at 0.9830. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9830 with targets at 0.9780, 0.9710 and stop-loss at 0.9860. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon May 08, 2017 5:13 am

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the beginning of the month the AUD is actively lowering against the USD due to the quite poor macroeconomic data from the Australia, such as the lowering of the April trade balance surplus and the RBA decision to keep the interest rate on the same minimum level.

Last week the new home sales in Australia lowered to this year minima, also the copper and gold prices lowered significantly, as Australia keeps the leading positions on export of these materials. As a result the price reached the 4 month minimum, and only the support zone at the level of 0.7350-0.7400 was strong enough to reverse the pair into the corrections due to the quite controversial traders’ reaction to the positive USA employment market data on Friday. The USD was trading in the narrow flat for the two weeks, but after the publications of these important data, which were better than expected, ended the last week with a significant lowering. The investors’ reaction will probably appear this week.

Today the traders should pay their attention to the 3 and 6 Month Bill Auctions data. Tomorrow the Australia Retail Sales data are worth traders’ attention: the growth of the index to the level of 0.3% is expected.
The development of the correction due to the absence of the important news is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7310, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7440, 0.7490 and stop loss at 0.7360.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7380 with the target at 0.7310, 0.7200 and stop loss 0.7470.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

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