AUD/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The AUD is trading in the upward trend against the USD. The pair has grown by more than 500 points and reached the key resistance level of 0.7700 in a month. The pair is moving due to the significant lowering of the USD against the negative USD fundamental background. During the last month the poor GDP, employment and key indices data were published. The Australia data made a positive impact on the pair.
In the beginning of the week there was a downward correction to the lower border of the upward trend at 0.7610, but now it is consolidating above this level. Today the volatility lowered and the AUD is trading within the narrow sideway channel 0.7610-0.7645. In the short term the pair will either grow to the local maxima or will form a reversal figure. This week the USA employment data and the USA building sector data are worth attention.
Support and resistance
Technical analysis and the USA and Australia fundamental background show the potential of movement to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820. The alternative is a consolidation of the pair in the sideway trend 0.7700-0.7610 with the further reversal. After the last FRS meeting its members has spoken a lot about the interest rate rising in March, which can affect the investors’ moods. The lowering of the demand on the USD pressures the pair and can led it to the deeper correction. The technical indicators are giving a strong sell signal, the MACD keeps high volumes of the long positions, the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart is set near the local maximum at the level of 0.7820.
Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7545, 0.7510, 0.7480, 0.7430, 0.7400, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7160.
Resistance levels: 0.7645, 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000.
Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current level with the target at 0.7820 and short stop loss is at 0.7580, keeping in mind the growth from the lower border of the upward channel.