Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th MARCH 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

ECB’s policy “bazooka” backfired at least yesterday, where a buffet of easing steps were at first embraced then later spurned by the markets. For a while it seemed like Draghi had found his magic touch again. By burying a rather modest deposit rate cut in a broad package of other stimulus package, including a new corporate bond purchase program, he managed to keep markets happy, bring in spreads and give stock markets a boost, but only for an hour or so. Peripheral government bonds, stressed banks and corporate bonds were the main beneficiaries. In the long run though Draghi’s eagerness to shield highly indebted countries and banks struggling with non-performing loans may come back to haunt the ECB and the Eurozone. It would appear Draghi did too good a job of signaling the moves in advance, which were clearly priced in, then followed by rapid unwinding on-the-fact. He also managed to confuse markets while he initially managed to bury the modest deposit rate cut in a host of other measures and implicit easing bias. He undid most of the good work by remarking that he doesn’t expect it to be necessary to cut rates again. Given the ECB’s track record, the only thing that means is that there won’t be another cut at the next meeting, and we would expect markets to settle down again today as the details of the stimulus package sink in. Today’s CPI number release from Germany won’t change the picture either as numbers were in line with expectations and mostly unchanged.

Japanese business sentiment deteriorated abruptly in the first quarter, the BSI Manufacturing Index indicated today. Financial market turmoil and slow demand globally had impacted negatively Japan’s flimsy economic recovery. The data pressures the policymakers to deploy extra stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is bordering on yet another recession. BSI Index measuring sentiment at large manufacturers came in at -7.9 in January-March, swinging from 3.8 in Q4 2015. BSI index is a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.

OPEC, Non-OPEC meeting unlikely to happen on March 20 as previously scheduled, as Iran has yet to agree to the oil production freeze, according to sources cited on Reuters earlier. That sure could explain the reversal in NYMEX crude into the red by -1.9% and back below $38 bbl to the $37.50 area.

Canada’s erosion in Q4 capacity use was not a surprise, as the drop to 81.1% in Capacity Utilization Rate fit with the already revealed slowing in real Q4 GDP growth to an 0.8% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.4% growth rate in Q3. Revisions were substantial in today’s report, but the pattern in 2015 remained intact: The post-recession Q4 2014 near term peak use rate was revised to 82.8% (was 83.3%), falling to 81.9% in Q1 (was 82.5%) and 80.5% in Q2 (was 81.4%) before rising to 81.6% in Q3 (was 82.0%).

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Employment numbers: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in February (median same at +10.0k) after the 5.7k drop in January. The year started out in a mess, with crude oil prices plunging and global growth worries intensifying. Against that backdrop, total jobs dipped. A less dire backdrop of firmer oil prices and markets that were not melting down is expected to lead to some optimism, lifting employment in February. But the resource and manufacturing sectors remained a drag, which may leave another disappointing report.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Trends in rig counts are significant clues for market participants in the oil and gas sector as they reveal the supply dynamics in the sector. Rig counts are reported week on Fridays. On March 7th the company announced that the international rig count for February 2016 was 1,018, down 27 from the 1,045 counted in January 2016, and down 257 from the 1,275 counted in February 2015. The worldwide rig count for February 2016 was 1,761, down 130 from the 1,891 counted in January 2016, and down 1,225 from the 2,986 counted in February 2015.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th MARCH 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

The improvement in stocks has run out of steam, which should keep bond futures supported. Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down, stock futures in the UK and the US are also heading south, after the BoJ kept policy on hold, while offering a somewhat bleaker picture of the economy and highlighting that inflation expectations are weakening. The door to further easing remains open then, but the BoJ’s decision to stay pat for now, is likely to be mirrored by other central banks this week. The Fed starts its two day meeting today and SNB and BoE will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, with policy expected to be kept on hold, leaving the focus on statements.

RBA – Upbeat on jobs but does not rule out rate cut. The Minutes from the last RBA meeting show that it does not rule out another rate cut. Employment has stalled in January, following a very strong end to 2015. “Nevertheless, conditions in the labour market had clearly improved since early 2015,” the RBA said. “Leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead. “But the central bank said low inflation will allow it to cut the cash rate if jobs growth flattens out or the global economy goes into meltdown. “Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” the minutes said.

BoJ kept policy on hold, but signalled an implicit easing bias, by painting a bleaker picture of the economy and warning that inflation expectations are falling. The bank also announced that it will exempt around USD 90 bln in money-reserve funds (MRFs) – short term funds – from negative rates, after warnings that investment money would be driven into bank deposits. The pledge to increase base money at an annual rate of JPY 80 trillion was left in place. The BoJ said that while “Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend”, the pick up in exports, which was still seen in January, has paused, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging market economies. At the same time it said inflation expectations weakened recently. So the door to further easing is left open.

ECB ups pressure on governments to implement structural reforms. Bank of France head Villeroy stressed that monetary policy alone cannot revive the economy and said France needs reforms to boost conference. ECB’s Rimsevics also said that monetary policy can only buy time and that politicians need to act on reforms. Hardly anything new, but with the ECB effectively removing market pressure on governments Draghi finds that verbal pressure alone is a blunt tool.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI: February PPI is expected to decline by 0.3% (median -0.2%) in its Tuesday release with the core figure down -0.1% (median -0.2%). This compares to January figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.4%. Data in line with our forecasts would result in a flat y/y headline with a 1.1% y/y pace of growth for the core. Oil price declines have tapered off but are still likely to weigh on the release.

US Retail Sales: February retail sales data is out on Tuesday and the headline should decline 0.2% (median -0.1% with the ex-autos figure down 0.3% ( median -0.2%) for the month. This follows January figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.1% for the ex-autos figure.

US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: The March Empire State Index is out Tuesday and should reveal a headline increase to -12.0 (median -12.0) from -16.6 in February and -19.4 in January. Producer sentiment was strong over the course of the fall but weakened into the new year. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures of sentiment to hold at 49 for a third month.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MARCH 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside Japan moved higher overnight, following on from gains in the U.S. after the FOMC trimmed its dot plot to imply just two tightening’s in 2016, which aligns the Fed’s view with the market. Japanese markets were weighed down by renewed strength in the Yen, following the dovish Fed statement. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and oil prices are starting to eye USD 39 per barrel. So good leads for European stock markets, but also bond futures and with the Fed statement out of the way the focus shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today.

Fed Trims Dots and Remains Cautious: The FOMC statement reflects ongoing caution on global economic and financial developments, though optimism was maintained on the domestic front, and especially with regard to the labor market. The Fed also raised the profile of inflation, which “picked up” but remains shy of its target. The Fed’s mostly downward forecast revisions for the dot-plot and GDP, along with steadier inflation and job outlooks, left the markets taking a dovish cue from the proceedings, though Yellen left open the door for a move as early as April. She also the Fed is “not activity debating or considering negative rates,” or looking into other methods of accommodation. The Fed still has a range of tools it can use if it finds itself back in that situation of needing to add more stimulus. The adoption and impact of negative rates by other central banks is being studied.

UK Chancellor Osborne announced GBP 3.5 bln in spending cuts as he presents the government’s 2016-17 budget. He said that cuts would be implemented towards the end of the current parliament, in 2019-20. On the Brexit issue, he argued that the UK is “better off” inside a “reformed” EU and that the official UK growth forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility were based on the country remaining within the union. UK growth was revised down to 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.4% forecast in November, and 2.2% in 2017, down from 2.5% previously envisaged. He quoted the OBR’s view that leaving the EU would “usher in an extended period of uncertainty.”

CPI better than expected. The 0.168% February US. CPI drop was upstaged by a sturdy 0.283% core price rise, as the expected 6.0% energy price drop and 0.2% food price rise accompanied hefty gains of 1.6% for apparel prices that extended a 0.6% January rise, a second consecutive 0.5% rise for medical care service prices, and a 0.3% rise for owners’ equivalent rent after four consecutive 0.2% increases. We saw 0.2% gains for new vehicle and tobacco prices.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Decision: There is a strong consensus for the BoE to stand pat on policy this week, and we expect the minutes to reveal a unanimous vote to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% (median same). This would make it exactly seven years the repo has been at its historic low. Weakness in the February PMI surveys and the benign inflation backdrop should ensure a dovish-tilted tone in the minutes, though still keeping the door open to an eventual rate hike, which markets are now discounting to be in Q1 next year. It will be interesting to see if there is any mention of “Brexit” risks, which kicked into gear following the PM Cameron’s renegotiated membership terms and consequence setting of a referendum data (June 23).September.

SNB Decision: The SNB will have eyed the ECB’s move carefully and especially the fact that the deposit rate cut was rather modest and so far the impact on the CHF proved temporary, could allow the Swiss central bank to hold off with another rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. Much will depend on developments in forex markets and even if rates are on hold this week, the SNB has shown before that it can always act at short notice and outside its quarterly policy meetings.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 05th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI.

Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation.

US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36).

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM
The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior.

Eurozone Services PMI
The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 6th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th APRIL 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German Feb industrial production drops less than feared: Production correcting just 0.5% m/m from the rise in January, against expectations for a drop of around -2.0% m/m. Still, the January number was revised sharply down to 2.3% m/m from 3.3% m/m reported initially and the annual rate fell back in February. Together with the weaker than expected orders readings and mixed confidence data the outlook is for slowing growth in overall production and a general weakening of the growth trajectory as the improvement on the labour market peters out and the refugee crisis weighs on consumer confidence.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed with Japan underperforming as a third consecutive dip in the leading indicator and a stronger Yen weighed on markets. Elsewhere stock markets started to stabilize and the front end Nymex futures climbed toward USD 37 per barrel. The EUR weakened, but remains clearly above 1.130 against the dollar. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -1.7% in March, a slight uptick from the -2.0% y/y in February. Still to come, there is central bank speak from the ECB and the Riksbank and Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway sell bonds, while Greece issues bills amid fresh Grexit concerns.

US ISM-NMI March increased to 54.5: This was from a 53.4 two-year low that beat estimates and capped a four-month drop from a solid 58.3 as recently as October, versus a 59.6 ten-year high last July. The ISM-adjusted measure rose to 54.1 from 53.2 in February and a 53.1 two-year low in January, versus a 59.0 ten-year high last July. The ISM-NMI figures remain stronger than the factory sentiment readings likely because the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power via lower gasoline prices, while the factory sector faces headwinds from an inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, restraint in the vehicle assembly rate, and a petro-sector recession. Given March strength in the factory sentiment figures, the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys popped to a surprisingly solid 53 in March from 49 in both January and February and 50 over the last four months of 2015, leaving the strongest average since the 53 figure in June and July of last year.

US JOLTS report showed job openings fell 159k: 5,445k openings in February versus a revised 323k January gain to 5,604k (was 5,541k), though the January level was the 3rd highest of this cycle. The rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Hiring rebounded 297k to 5,422k after diving 276k in January to 5,125k (revised from 5,029k). The rate rose to 3.8% versus 3.6% previously. Quitters increased 99k to 2,950k following the prior 237k decline to 2,851k (revised from 2,804k). The quit rate also rose to 2.1% from 2.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes
The minutes to the March 17, 18 Fed meeting will be interesting for clues on the various outlooks of the Committee. However, Yellen’s dovish stance has usurped a lot of the importance of the minutes. Also, other Fedspeakers since the mid-March meeting have also let their feelings known, with even the more dovish members supporting expectations for 2 rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, data has revealed a slower Q1 economy, with our 2016 growth forecast now just 0.7%, with the Atlanta Fed at 0.4%. We know that in March, policymakers were contending with many uncertain and conflicting signals, as well as geopolitical concerns. Those factors left the FOMC on the sidelines, as they punted into Q2, although the economic projections for the year, along with inflation forecasts, were trimmed. Look for the minutes to largely underscore the various uncertainties domestically and around the world as the central reason for the unchanged policy stance.

ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingThe Non-Monetary policy’s ECB meeting is this morning in Frankfurt. This is a monthly meeting and involves all 25 members of the governing council.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th APRIL 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

BOJ Koruda and Japan Finance Ministry: A reiteration of the Japanese economic approach was emphasized overnight as both the BOJ Governor and the finance ministry chief (Mr Suga) pledged more of the same and that they “Will take steps in FX market if needed”. The YEN continued its surge against its major competitors USDJPY is current trading at 108.8, EURJPY 124.50 and GBPJPY 154.00. The Nikkei 225 was understandably subdued on the news and is currently the lagging Asian stock market.

European Outlook: The bounce back in oil prices, which have risen above USD 38 per barrel, is keeping equity markets underpinned and things continued to improve in Asia overnight, with most markets outside of mainland China in positive territory, although gains have been modest, compared to the rise in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fed minutes, which on balance favoured caution added support, while the rise in the Yen is keeping a lid on Japanese equities. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to opening gains in Europe, with Eurozone markets likely to continue to underperform amid ongoing EUR strength and concerns about the economic and political outlook for the Eurozone as Grexit fears flare up again and push out spreads. The calendar is relatively quiet, with a focus on the ECB, which publishes the minutes to the March meeting and holds a conference on “The ECB and its watchers”.

FOMC minutes: They showed “several” officials argued for a cautious approach regarding the potential for an April hike, which was debated at the March meeting. As Yellen commented in her recent speech, and in her press conference, many participants thought the current rate asymmetry made it prudent to wait for more information on the underlying strength of economic activity or inflation before taking another step to reduce accommodation. The minutes revealed global concerns remained very relevant — the word “global” was used 13 times in the participants’ discussion of current conditions (“risks,” or some variation, appeared 16 times). Again the FOMC reiterated the next move would be data, not calendar, dependent. We’re not seeing anything really new in the minutes versus what we knew from the policy statement, the SEP, and subsequent Fedspeak.

Fedspeak, Positions Confirmed: Fed hawk Mester expects “gradual” rate hikes this year in a repeat of previous missives on the topic, in discussing the economy and monetary policy from Cleveland. Bullard also stated his expectation that inflation will overshoot the 2% target and that 2.2% inflation is better than 1.5% inflation and that all meetings are “live”. So more of the same from the Presidents.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB’s Draghi Speech
Due to speak about the economic and financial situation in Europe at the Portuguese President’s Council, in Lisbon. The eloquent and reserved Mr Draghi is always one to listen too carefully. Portuguese Bonds were dragged down yesterday along with Grexit talk. Interesting location for his latest speech.

Fed’s Yellen Speech
In New York the four latest Chairs (Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen) of the FOMC are meeting and Mrs Yellen is due to speak. As the incumbent Chair she is unlikely to use the occasion to utter anything new or indeed controversial. The words from her predecessors on the other hand could prove more interesting.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th APRIL 2016.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There is a lot of potentially relevant US data due out this week, including CPI and retail sales. The week starts with March trade prices (Tuesday), where import prices should jump 1.6% (0.9% median) thanks to a rebound in oil (-0.1% ex-petro), while export prices are slated to sink 0.2% (median -0.3%). The Treasury budget is also due for March, with the deficit seen almost doubling to -$94.0 bln versus last March’s -$52.9 bln. Wednesday sees, retail sales, with a flat forecast for the headline (median 0.3%) amid some drag from chain store sales vs -0.1% in February. Excluding autos, sales should rebound 0.3% after the prior 0.1% dip. PPI is set to rise 0.2% headline (median 0.3%) or just 0.1% core, with business inventories seen sinking 0.2% in February. Inflation’s better half, the CPI report is due (Thursday) and expected to rise 0.1% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.2% in February. Initial jobless claims may dip 7k to 260k (median 270k) for the April 9 week. Empire State is projected to sink to 0.0 in April (median 2.2) vs 0.6 (Friday), along with a 0.4% fall (median unchanged) in industrial production for March vs -0.5% and a drop in capacity use to 75.0% (median 75.4%) vs 75.4%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may hold steady at 91.0 (median 92.0) and the TIC inflow report is also due.

Canada: The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and MPR (Wednesday) loom large this week. We expect no change in the current 0.50% policy setting to come alongside a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, but one that maintains that ample downside risk to growth is still in place. The take-away from the announcement and MPR is expected to be for an extended period of steady policy, as the Bank remains on the sidelines while past monetary stimulus continues to work through the system and fresh fiscal stimulus comes on-line. Economic data this week is back-loaded, with February new home prices (Thursday) and February manufacturing shipments (Friday) due at the end of the week. Manufacturing shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in February after the 2.3% surge in January. The new home price index is seen expanding 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% rise in January. Existing home sales for March (Friday) and the Teranet/National HPI for March (Wednesday) are also due out.

Europe: The Eurozone is once again looking shaky. Ongoing problems in Greek bailout talks have rekindled Grexit fears and with them, the question arises of just how much risk sharing there really is in the Eurozone. Data releases this week focus mainly on final inflation readings for March. German HICP moved back into positive territory and should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y, but with French HICP at -0.1% y/y, Spanish inflation at -1.0% y/y and the Italian HCIP rate at -0.3% y/y, the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday), is expected to be confirmed at a still negative -0.1%. Other data releases include February production and trade data, which are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for the ECB. We expect production to correct -0.9% m/m (median same), from the strong jump in January. The trade surplus meanwhile should widen judging by the improvement in the dominant German number that month, which was backed by a rebound in exports.

UK: The UK calendar has the April BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday), along with the latest BRC survey of retail sales (Tuesday) and inflation figures (also Tuesday). The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The BRC retail sales release is expected to rebound in March data to +1/4% y/y in the like-for-like measure, up from +0.1% y/y growth in February. Record levels of employment and rising real incomes are underpinning the sector. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also see nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. Such outcomes would be consistent with BoE projections.

China: March CPI and PPI have been published earlier Today. Consumer prices were expected to rise to a 2.4% y/y rate from 2.3%, but they remained stuck on 2.3%. PPI however, posted a -4.3% y/y pace from -4.9%, better than expected. March trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed slightly to $32.0 bln from $32.6 bln. Friday brings the balance of data releases, including March retail sales which are expected to slow to a 10.0% y/y pace from 11.1% previously. March industrial production is seen improving to up 5.7% y/y from 5.4%, while March fixed investment likely ticked up to 10.3% y/y from 10.2%.

Japan: February machine orders have been published earlier Today and the decline was 9.2%, better than the expected 10.0% m/m versus the 15% January rise. March bank loan data is due Tuesday, followed by March PPI (Wednesday) which is see steady at -3.4% y/y. Revised February industrial production data comes on Friday, and is seen at -6.2%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Friday) will be of considerable interest. As for economic data, the March employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 0.3k rise in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8%, matching the 5.8% in February. Housing investment (Monday) is expected to rise 1.0% in February after falling 3.9% in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5th analysis on oil.

A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

RBA’s May cut was driven by “broad-based” softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBA’s target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins.


Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be “less informative than usual” in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets.

US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release.

US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today’s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses.

Japan’s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC’s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn’t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates “in the not too distant future,” while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won’t change the immediate rate outlook.
FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets are pressured after the Fed minutes seemed to back June rate hike backs, with Asian stock markets mostly lower, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also in the red. Yields are rising as the end to ever expanding monetary policy accommodation is coming into sight and the front end WTI future has fallen back below USD 48 per barrel Bund futures already extended losses in after hour trade yesterday and are likely to remain under pressure. UK markets underperformed yesterday as reduced Brexit bets boosted Sterling, and while GBP has eased somewhat it remains above 1.46 against the USD. The European calendar today as Eurozone current account and U.K. retail sales and the CBI industrial trends survey.

FOMC minutes showed a June hike was “likely”: If data improved as expected. Officials wanted to keep options open for June. But there was a range of views on whether the economic numbers would be adequate to support a tightening next month. Consistent with the April 27 policy statement, many officials noted global risks needed to be closely monitored, with some noting specific worries over China’s currency and Brexit. However, “many” officials continued to see downside risks to the outlook, even as “some” saw global risks as having diminished. Meanwhile, a “few” officials (the more hawkish members) were talking about an April hike. The minutes certainly do set the stage for a tightening next month, though of course data will have to cooperate. Our call for a June hike is supported by the minutes to the April 26, 27 policy meeting.

Australia Adds Jobs: More new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month with the unemployment level remaining at 30 month lows. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% (expectations increase to 5.8%); Employment rose 10,800 for March; Full-time jobs fell by 9,300; part-time employment rose by 20,200; Participation rate, a measure of labor force as a share of the population, dropped to 64.8%. It shows that low interest rates are helping sectors such as construction and tourism, however the fall in participation rates and the rise of part-time workers shows suggests only tepid growth.

BoJ seen expanding stimulus by July: According to the consensus view from the latest Reuters survey. 19 of the 22 respondents expect a move by July, with 7 anticipating a move in June and 12 predicting that the stimulus boost will come at the policy meeting in July, which would coincide with BoJ economic forecast updates. The three remaining respondents opted for the two-day meeting ending on Nov-1. 80% of respondents expect a combination of cutting negative rates further and upping the QQE program (two of PM Abe’s three arrows economic-revival plan), although the prevailing -0.1% rate isn’t expected to be touched until Q4. Note that the survey was conducted over the six days to yesterday, thereby missing today’s initial release of Q1 GDP data out of Japan, which smashed expectations at +1.7% q/q, well up on the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. On this, however, caveats apply. As the FT points out, first-estimate GDP data are apt for potentially big revisions in Japan. The report also highlighted that falling investment chopped 0.9 of a percentage point of GDP in Q1, which is seem largely as a consequence of the impact of yen strength on major Japanese businesses. This should maintain Japanese policymakers’ desire to weaken the yen, though don’t expect much jawboning on this until the upcoming G7 meetings have come and gone.

Main Macro Events Today

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: May Philly Fed is out on Thursday and should reveal a headline to increase to 5.0 (median 3.0) from -1.6 in April and 12.4 in March. The already released Empire State Index for May posted a dramatic drop to -9.0 from 9.6 which could spell downside risk to the Philly Fed release. However, we expect some improvement in broad producer sentiment in May with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures ticking up to 52 from 51 last month and 53 in March.

US Initial Jobless: Claims data for the week of May 14th are out today and should reveal a 297k (median 275k) headline following a 294k headline last week and 274k in the week prior. There is a chance that the big jump in claims last week was the result of spring break in NY public schools so there could be an unwind this week. We expect claims to average 275k in May from 259k in April and 264k in March. This would accompany an anticipated 190k nonfarm payroll headline for the month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.