"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European currency declined amid the German weak macroeconomic news and the overseas different statistics. Now the chances of the US December monetary policy tightening are inexorably growing. One of the main Fed rate hike conditions is the labor market stable state. The US dollar can reach the price parity with the European currency in the short term. The Germany published the imports, exports and trade balance data on Monday which amounted 3,6%, 2,6% and -0.740М. Amid these data the euro slightly strengthened.

The pound came under the massive sales after the industrial production report publication. The pound fell by 0.2% in September. A sum of the US labor market and unemployment statistics had a bombshell effect. The UK and the US calendars were empty on Monday. Thus investors had to focus their attention on technical factors. By the end of the day the pound increased.

On Friday the Japanese currency also came under pressure. The US News has been published and it was the main reason of demand for the US dollar. Nothing important happened in Japan. On Monday early in the morning it became known that the wages level rose up by 0.6% amid the lower forecasts. However, it was not clearly enough for a substantial demand for the Japanese currency. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro decreased after the US labor market report publication. The price was under pressure when the October report had showed that the US economy had been able to create 271K new jobs against the September growth by 137K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%. The euro became the most vulnerable currency after this report publication.

The euro three-week decline against the US dollar found a support at the level of 1.0730. There was a short-term correction from the level. However the pair could not grow above the level of 1.0800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0800 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound showed a growth on the Monday trades. Both the UK industrial production mixed results and demand for the dollar put pressure on the pound lat week. Earlier the pound came under pressure after the Bank of England Mark Carney speech who rejected to comment the rate hike this year possibility. The US employment data only added fuel to the fire, having strengthened the dollar against other currencies.

The price reduction was followed by the strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough amid the increased volume. After the level of 1.5040 testing the pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5040, 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell amid the US strong employment report. The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy state fundamentals remain solid. At the same time the Prime Minister Abe said that the yen excessive strength had been corrected. Nevertheless the dollar weakened and the pair fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

Buyers broke through the key resistance level of 122.40. The level of 122.40 breakthrough allowed the pair to consolidate above the resistance of 123.20. However then the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth to 123.20 further on we expect a fall towards 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

After a few days of the European currency decline the pair needed a rest and a technical correction. There is not any reason for the euro significant growth. There was not any anything interesting news yesterday. There were just a few minor indicators; however, they unlikely interested investors. Thus, the market remained in the hibernation state and we did not noted strong movements.

The pound also enjoyed an increased demand after the dollar slight correction. The British currency has risen and consolidated. The published UK retail sales were weak - the index was reduced by 0.2% while a growth of 0.7% was expected.

The Japanese currency has also risen slightly in relation to the US dollar. The Japan trade balance has decreased and the bank lending growth rate has fallen. The pair dollar/yen also consolidated.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under pressure after the ECB report which is considering the negative interest rates possibility at its December meeting.

Furthermore, the correction efforts are restrained by the fact that after the US Friday labor market strong publication the probability of the December Fed rate hike has risen and is 71.7% against 58% before the report publication. Probability of the January increase was 75.8% and 85.2% in March.

This fact supports the dollar and limits the growth rate. The pair did not grow to the level of 1.0800 and rebounded downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0630. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect more volatility trading the second half of the week after a quite enough the first part. The BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech will be in the center of traders' attention on Wednesday.

The pair GBP/USD the dollar rally somewhat slowed down. The pair has recovered and now it is trading above1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general the pair USD/JPY has a positive mood. The US currency was supported by the Fed statement which confirmed the expectations validity about the Fed interest rates growth at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the pair USD/JPY was stable during the day, still the dollar could not resist, so that quotations played out growth, having decreased to the below the level of 123.20. The pair started a consolidation here.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Central Bank monetary policy provides the main influence on the euro aimed at its currency rate weakening. A number of officials’ oratory led by the ECB head, Mario Draghi and the macroeconomic indicators reduction confirmed that the current policy would be continued and even be accelerated. Germany has been published the wholesale price index of little importance, the US has published the mortgage lending index.

The British currency purchases started yesterday. Great Britain has published the number of jobless claims (3,3K), the unemployment (5,3%) and the average wages level (3,0%). The positive forecasts made traders buy pounds at night. Besides there was Mark Karny's speech yesterday.

The Japanese currency declined a bit. The decrease was caused by the lack of important statistics. Japan did not publish important news yesterday. It became known the Japanese machinery and equipment orders changes by 23.1%. However, investors did not react to this report. Investors need something more interesting and important for active actions. The pair dollar/yen is trading in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The commodity market sales became a positive factor for the dollar as the commodity cost is denominated in the US currency. Industrial metals were the decline leaders, oil showed a lateral tendency. It was a bank holiday in the United States on the occasion of the Veterans Day, so the USA traders were absent. There were not any important releases in the euro zone.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance of 1.0730 at the yesterday trading session after which there was correction with the level testing upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0730 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0630, further then towards 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics website published the labor market release. The Bank of England pointed to the steady domestic demand in its latest monetary policy reviews amid the unemployment decline and the average earnings growth. “Bears” ended the game and continued to open short positions on the attractive levels, playing off the divergence, expecting the US Fed and the Bank of England monetary policy. However the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The pair tested the support level of 1.5150 and rebounded upwards. The bulls broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not important macroeconomic statistics yesterday. The debt market pointed out to the bullish trend continuation. The US and the Japanese government bonds differential profitability is confidently kept at the level of 200 bp. Yesterday the utility service sector was the growth leader in the US stock market which indicates the lack of investors' risk appetite.

The corrective decline is amid the low volumes and stopped below the resistance level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.20, it may continue the growth in the short term. The potential target is 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Thursday trades were opened by the Germany inflation data report. Then, the Eurozone published the industrial production indicators. The main attention was drawn to the United States. In particular, traders were interested in the weekly jobless claims release. The data came out at 276 000. The Fed several representatives’ speeches set the tone for the evening trades.

The Germany wholesale prices report slowed down the October decline, the euro is focused on the ECB representatives’ statements where it was stated that the deposit rate should not be decreased in December that supported the European currency.

The Bank of England governor Carney‘s optimistic comments that the UK economy was able to cope with the external risks supported the pound purchases. The UK average salaries did not meet traders' expectations while the unemployment rate has fallen. The housing balance price indicator exceeded expectations and amounted to 49% for October.

The pair USD/JPY slightly corrected downwards when the Bank of Japan assured that there was no need for further monetary easing.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the Australian dollar that received some support after the October unemployment sharp decline. After the new jobs number increase the traders reduced the expectations regarding to the Australian Reserve Bank further interest rate decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB stimulating measures and the Fed rate hike possible increase, probably, will continue to set the tone in the foreign exchange market until the December Central Bank meetings. The German and the US two-year bond yields have already broken through the levels which were set in March.

After the last week sharp decline the price has moved into the long consolidation near the support level of 1.0730. Now the price is trading above that level. The volume divergence signals towards the buyers power easing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0730 and 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK labor data became the driver growth for the pair. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3% that was the lowest indicator for the last seven years. The RICS housing prices balance was published the other day which came out better than expected - 49%. There forecast was 45%.

Practically the whole week the British pound was correcting from the support level of 1.5040. Despite the reduced volumes, buyers have broken through two strong resistance levels of 1.5150 and 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Fed December interest rates increase is estimated with the probability of 75%. The market's reaction suggests that the probability of the Bank of Japan additional stimulating measures became lower. Nevertheless, the yen is expected to continue weakening against the US dollar as the probability of the Fed December rate growth is a strong driver.

After the rapid growth the pair started its weak downward correction. Not having broken through the resistance level of 123.20 the pair is demonstrating a lateral movement, keeping the likelihood of growth.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank will not hurry with the deposits interest rates reduction. Firstly it will try to restrain the franc growth with the help of the foreign exchange intervention. The financial capital outflow resumption is worth noting which can also increase pressure on the franc while maintaining the total market volatility at the current low levels.

The frank is in a flat between the levels of 1.0100 and 0.9960. However, the pound growth is possible, although it will be very weak.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European and the US economic releases alongside with the monetary authority’s comments caused a vivid dynamics for the major pairs. The Eurozone and the region countries published the third quarter GDP data. The Europe has published the trade balance report. Besides the US minor release, players have paid their attention to the retail sales where the monthly indicator increase was expected.

The main blow to the euro came from the ECB President M. Draghi who "promised" to revise the buying assets program in December, having noted the inflationary risks weakening due to the single currency recent strengthening. Another reason for the sales was the euro zone industrial production weak data which fell by 0.3% in September against the expectations by -0.1%.

The pair EUR/GBP declined amid the euro widespread sales contributed to the GBP/USD quotations recovery after a decrease. In the absence of the UK releases the pair focused on the dollar rate behavior.

The pair USD/JPY experienced a lack of growth dynamics. The trades were little revived after the Fed speech, which have not made significant corrections to the market expectations, although it slightly undermined the dollar positions which calculated on the aggressive statements.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro resumed its decline after a growth at the end of the trading week. The decline was provoked by the less aggressive than expected Fed statements tone towards the interest rates increase timing. In particular, Evans said that he would like to see the inflation growth before the interest rates being changed, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Dudley noted the inflation expectations signs decline, saying that the rate hike conditions soon be achieved.

After a consolidation above the support level of 1.0730 the pair tested the resistance level of 1.0800. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK insignificant indices publication has not supported the pound. The traders’ attention was focused on the US retail sales news. The pair GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.5200 for the first time since last Thursday when the Bank of England MPC meeting took place.

The price is trading above 1.5200. The level of 1.5200 is a strong support and the price could not fall below this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general, the pair USD / JPY continues its correction from the three month maximum, achieved in the middle of the week. The Friday data was published that fixed some Japan production recovery.

Throughout the week the US dollar is trading under the level of 123.20. The correctional price reduction is at the low volumes - sellers are gradually losing their strength.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 123.20 and 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar fell against major currencies at the end of the week as some investors decided to close their positions. Meanwhile, the newsflow continue to support the expectations, concerning the Fed interest rates increase in December. It is early to talk about the dollar strengthening trends changes. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The pair is trading between the resistance level of 1.0100 and the support level of 0.9960. By the end of the trades the pair increased. The October retail sales release in the United States was published on Friday's trading. The growth rate was 0.1%, the forecasts of + 0.3%, previously was recorded 0.1% growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair euro/dollar spent last week in a flat and finished the trades close to the opening prices, having shown the European currency minimal advantage. The October consumer price index (CPI) latest assessment - showed the growth to 0,1% with the forecast 0,0%. The ECB M. Draghi first speech was in the center of our attention. The pair slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

At the beginning of the week the British news main theme will be the inflation report. The statistics will show the consumer and producer prices indicators which will be published on Tuesday. The forecasts suggest that there are some deflation signs and the October consumer price index (CPI) is expected to be unchanged at the level of 0.1% y/y after -0.1% y/y in September while the basic indicator without food and fuel prices remained at the level of + 1.0% y/y. The pound was trading in the flat on Monday.

This week Japan most important economic statistics has already been published. The 3rd quarter GDP preliminary estimate showed the recession signs, the indicator has fallen for the second consecutive quarter by -0.2% q/q after -0.3% q/q while it was forecasted -0.1% q/q. These figures caused a small-scale multi-directional movement in the market that has not changed yet into the directed activity - the price is at the opening level. The pair increased on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European consumer prices index has already been published. The growth rate decline was expected to 0.1% on the monthly basis which cannot please investors as Europe is on the brink of deflation. Data came out at the forecasted level.

The pair started its consolidation in the range, limited by the levels of 1.0800-1.0630. At first, it fell under the support level of 1.0730, but it soon returned above this mark. However the pair could not fixate above this level and the support level of 1.0730 was broken through downward.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The absence of the UK macroeconomic news and the US weak statistics was not reflected on the pound. Investors did not manage to rise the British pound amid the overseas weak news and there were not any reasons for the dollar growth. The UK housing prices index declined on Monday November 16th.

The pair GBP/USD was between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5300, being kept most of the day above the key level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar has been traditionally growing without any reason prior to the overseas news publication. As the retail sales data were disappointing, the American currency has lost all its advantages. The Japan industrial production showed an increase by 1.1%, although the forecasts were slightly lower. The majority of investors did not pay attention again to the Japanese news. By the end of the trades the pair increased.

The pair USD/JPY showed a growth above the support level of 122.40. This level was tested. Then the pair rebounded upwards, having tested the level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4.

The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4.

The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%.

The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow.

The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar.

According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored.

The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports.

"Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar.

The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partners’ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday.

The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar.

The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7.

The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. Пара EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day.

In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation.

“Bulls” have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October.

The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity.

The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officials’ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth.

The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.