LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Bank of England meeting

Current trend
Today the GBP/USD pair strengthened amid data on the Industrial Production for August from the UK that showed an unexpected growth of 1% to the previous month and 1.9% against the last year.
Today important data on the NIESR GDP Estimate for the third quarter of the year is due in the UK at 5 pm (GMT +3). The data can influence opinions of members of the Bank of England committee who meet tomorrow at 2 pm (GMT +3) for monetary policy discussions and will publish their interest rate decision as well. Markets do not expect the policy tightening yet but the regulator commentaries can have a significant effect on the pair’s dynamics.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastic indicates that the pair is heavily overbought, while the price stopped against the resistance level at 1.5305 (ЕМА144), from where a downward correction towards 1.5230 is possible.
The price consolidation above the level of 1.5340 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) may lead to a further growth to the levels of 1.53780 (ЕМА50), 1.5440 (ЕМА144), 1.5500 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, a breakdown of the level of 1.5230 could send the pair to the levels of 1.5130, 1.5100 (lower border of a descending channel on the daily chart), 1.4600 (year lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts give buy signals, while on the weekly and monthly charts indicate that the fall will continue.
Support levels: 1.5230, 1.5130, 1.5100.
Resistance levels: 1.5305, 1.5340, 1.5370, 1.5440.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the levels of 1.5270, 1.5305 with targets at 1.5240, 1.5190, 1.5130, 1.5110, 1.5050, 1.5000 and stop-loss at 1.5320.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.5350 with targets at 1.5370, 1.5440, 1.5500 and stop-loss at 1.5290.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: USD falling

Current trend
The AUD/USD pair fell after disappointing data on the US labour market came out.
Despite slow economic growth in Australia, the RBA on its last meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged at current 2%. Nevertheless, a possibility of a further rate cut in the near future remains.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Williams speech and the FOMC Minutes, due to come out later in the US.

Support and resistance
The pair reached its resistance at the level of 0.7180 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
If a downward trend resumes local targets can be the levels of 0.7035, 0.6960, and 0.6910. However, a breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.7270 could lead to a short-term upward movement towards 0.7410, 0.7470 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7500 (23.6% Fibonacci).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend purchases, while on the 4-hour chart they turned to sales.
Support levels: 0.7125 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100 (ЕМА144), 0.7035, 0.6960, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7270.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the levels of 0.7160, 0.7090 with targets at 0.7035, 0.6990, 0.6960, 0.6910, 0.6885, 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.7220, 0.7140.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7270, 0.7390 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: pair remains in range

Current trend
Today the pair is growing.
According to the latest Minutes, the US Fed considers continuing with current monetary policy easing, at least until the end of the year. At the same time, there is a high chance that the Bank of Japan will ease its monetary policy further in the near future.
This prevent the Yen from excessive strengthening against the USD.

Support and resistance
The pair keeps trading within the range between the levels of 120.80 (ЕМА144) and 119.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and below strong resistance level at 120.50 (61.8% Fibonacci correction).
However, a breakdown of the level of 119.60 would send the pair towards 118.65 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart), 117.40 (2015 lows). On the other hand, if price breaks out it could grow to 121.50 (50% Fibonacci), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci), the breakout of which would cancel a downward correction and allows the pair to grow to 125.65 (year highs).
On the daily, weekly and monthly chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they signal purchases.
Support levels: 118.65, 118.90, 119.60.
Resistance levels: 120.50, 120.80, 121.00, 121.50, 122.00.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 119.80 with targets at 119.60, 119.10, 118.65 and stop-loss at 120.20, and at the levels of 120.30, 120.50 with targets at 119.80, 119.60, 119.10, 118.65 and stop-loss at 120.90.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 121.15 with targets at 121.50, 122.00 and stop-loss at 120.80.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: oil grows

Current trend
The price of Brent crude oil significantly grew amid shrinking oil reserves in the US and the USD weakening.
The lasts FOMC Minutes allows to assume that the American regulator is unlikely to increase its interest rates in the nearest future. At the same time, Middle East instability seems to be affecting the prices as well. Furthermore, the OPEC countries could reduce their oil output.
Nevertheless, an excess of oil supply is going to stay on the markets for some time.

Support and resistance
The price broke out the strong resistance level at 50.00 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and can continue growing towards 55.75 (ЕМА144), but an upward impulse is weakening.
After the price returns below the level of 52.90 a further fall towards 51.00, 50.00 is possible with a tendency to reach the levels of 47.00 and 42.50 (August and year lows).
Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts starts giving a sell signal.
Support levels: 53.00, 52.90, 52.00.
Resistance levels: 54.00, 54.25, 55.00, 55.50.

Trading tips
Open short positions from the current price with targets at 52.90, 52.50, 52.10 and stop-loss at 54.10.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 54.20 with targets at 55.00, 55.50 and stop-loss at 53.20.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: near strong support levels

Current trend
Despite poor macroeconomic data from Switzerland, the USD/CHF pair remains under pressure amid falling demand for the US Dollar on the market.
Tomorrow the data on Producer and Import Prices for September is due from Switzerland. If the index comes out negative, again the Swiss NB might decide to proceed with further monetary policy easing.
On Wednesday, pay attention to the ZEW Survey – Expectations in Switzerland for October and Retail Sales in the US.

Support and resistance
Last Friday, the pair reached important support level at 0.9585 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), a breakdown of which would allow the pair to fall to 0.9550 (ЕМА200 lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart) and farther to 0.9460 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 0.9400 (ЕМА144 and lower border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). At the same time, if the price breaks out the level of 0.9850 (upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart) the pair could grow to 0.9900 (August highs), 1.0100, 1.0200 (year highs).
On the 4-hour, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.9510, 0.9535, 0.9550, 0.9585.
Resistance levels: 0.9675, 0.9700, 0.9740, 0.9800, 0.9900.

Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 0.9550, 0.9585 with targets at 0.9675, 0.9700, 0.9740 and stop-loss at 0.9480, and at the level of 0.9630 with the same targets and stop-loss at 0.9580.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.9470 with targets at 0.9400, 0.9300 and stop-loss at 0.9520.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil fell by 5% to the level of 49.74.
Oil is falling after the latest publication on market conditions from OPEC. According to the data, oil output inside the organisation in September grew to 31.57 million barrels a day, which is 0.11 million barrels higher than the previous figure. Most of the increase comes from Iraq.
On Thursday, the weekly publication of the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change is due in the US. If stocks grew that would add to pressure on oil prices.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 49.74 (yesterday low), 46.89 (2 October low), 45.50 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 51.25 (8 October low), 52.80 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 54.26 (31 August high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 51.25 with targets at 52.80, 54.24 and stop-loss at 49.70.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 49.50 with the target at 46.90 and stop-loss at 50.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: decline continues
Current trend
Despite of negative macroeconomic statistics, released in Japan, which added pressure on NikkeiStockAverage, the USD/JPY pair continues declining. However, the risks that the Bank of Japan may further ease its monetary policy prevents the Yen from significant strengthening against the USD.
The pair is likely to trade within a range until the US releases Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index statistics for September.
Support and resistance
The pair is ranging between the levels of 120.80 (ЕМА144) and 119.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). While the price remains within the range, short positions are recommended from the resistance level of 120.80 and long positions are recommended from the support level of 119.60. Further dynamics relates either to the breakdown or the breakout of the range.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators are giving sell signals.
Support levels: 118.65, 118.90, 119.60.
Resistance levels: 120.50, 120.80, 121.00, 121.50, 122.00.
Trading tips
Pending Sell Stop orders can be placed at the level of 119.40 with targets at 119.10, 118.65 and stop-loss at 119.90.
Pending Sell Limit orders can be placed at the levels of 120.70, 120.50 with targets at 119.80, 119.60, 119.10, 118.65 and stop-loss at 120.90.
Pending Buy Limit orders can be placed at the level of 119.60 with targets at 120.50, 120.80 and stop-loss at 119.40.
Pending Buy Stop orders can be placed at the level of 120.10 with targets at 120.50, 120.80, 121.50, 122.00 and stop-loss at 119.80.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: important news

Current trend

This week investors’ attention is going to be focused on the Fed meeting that is due 27-28 October and where the regulator will make a decision on interest rates.
The Bank of Japan meeting is planned for 30 October, where the regulator will also make its interest rate decision. Currently, the Japanese economy shows very weak signs of recovery, while the inflation rate remains well below its 2% target.
If the Fed holds off from raising interest rates in the US, the Bank of Japan could be forced to ease its monetary policy further.

Support and resistance

Last week the USD/JPY pair broke out the range between 120.60 (ЕМА144 and 61.8% Fibonacci correction) and 119.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) where it remained since the beginning of September, and reached the resistance level at 121.50 (50% correction).
Today the pair is in correction and may reach the level of 120.60, from where a new upward wave could start to the levels of 122.00, 122.50 (38.2% correction), 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50.
However, a price return below the level of 119.60 could resume a downward trend.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart recommend short positions, while on the daily chart OsMA is turning to sales as well.
Support levels: 120.60, 120.25, 119.60.
Resistance levels: 121.50, 122.00, 122.50.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 121.20 with targets at 121.40, 121.90, 122.40 and stop-loss at 120.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 120.70 with targets at 120.30, 119.90, 119.70 and stop-loss at 121.10.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: correction on Monday

Current trend

When the President of the ECB Mario Draghi stated the readiness of the Regulator to extend its Quantitative Easing Programme, the EUR/USD pair lost more than 300 points within two days.
Today, at the opening of the trading session, the pair was trying to strengthen but was negatively affected by the IFO Current Assessment statistics for October, released in Germany. The indicator declined and came in below the forecast.
The ECB is likely to start stimulating the EU economy as early as December. The chances of this decision would rise to a maximum if the Fed keeps its interest rate unchanged at the forthcoming meeting.

Support and resistance

The EUR/USD pair broke down the lower line of a narrowing triangle on the daily chart at the level of 1.1050, which is also the lower border of an upward channel on the weekly chart.
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are giving sell signals. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions.
The pair is likely to continue declining towards 1.0860, 1.0820 (July lows) and 1.0500 (year lows).
If the Fed keeps its interest rate unchanged at the forthcoming meeting, the pair may strengthen during an upward correction, but no higher than 1.1255 (ЕМА144), 1.1285 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0900, 1.0850.
Resistance levels: 1.1120, 1.1255, 1.1285, 1.1380.

Trading tips

Place pending Sell Stop orders at the level of 1.0985 with targets at 1.0910, 1.0860, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.1055.
Place pending Buy Stop orders at the level of 1.1065 with targets at 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1250 and stop-loss at 1.1020.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: CHF remains under pressure

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair is growing to new local highs. After a weekly rally, the USD keeps strengthening against the CHF despite weak New Homes Sales Change statistics, released on Monday in the US. In September, the indicator fell by 11.5% against a 5.2% growth in the previous month, while just a 0.4% decline was expected.
The US dollar gains support from expectations of the Fed meeting, due on Wednesday, and China's monetary easing. This weekend, the People's Bank of China lowered its interest rates for the sixth time this year.

Support and resistance

Bollinger bands indicator on the daily chart is moving upwards. The price range is widening, but the price does not fit within its borders. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and turning horizontally.
Bollinger Bands and Stochastic indicate a possibility of a downward correction. MACD recommends long positions.
Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9774, 0.9439, 0.9717, 0.9685, 0.9666, 0.9644, 0.9621, 0.9600.
Resistance levels: 0.9822, 0.9842 (25 September high), 0.9862, 0.9900 (11 August high), 0.9930.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9842 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9900, 0.9920 and stop-loss at 0.9800. Validity - 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 0.9822, 0.9800 with targets at 0.9740, 9.9700 and stop-loss at 0.9850. Validity - 2-3 days.