LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The markets still remain cautious as the Greek crisis is not over yet. On Wednesday, the Greek parliament must accept a number of draft laws on austerity measures to continue negotiations about another bailout.
The euro opened the trading session at 1.0998 and during the day managed to rise to 1.1083 after the U.S. Retail Sales statistics were released. In June, the index decreased by 0.3% against the expected growth of 0.3%. Nevertheless, even the negative U.S. macroeconomic statistics was unable to further strengthen the European currency, and, by the end of the day, the price corrected to 1.1005.
Today, it is worth noting several important economic releases. In particular, U.S. Industrial Production statistics are released. Industrial Production is expected to increase by 0.2% in June. If the actual figure matches the forecast, it will support the U.S. dollar. Also Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers her speech to the U.S. Congress which may influence the pair volatility. It is worth mentioning that investors still hope to get information about the timing of a rate increase this year.
As for the European currency, today the market is waiting for the vote in the Greek parliament on the bailout agreement.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below its signal line. The price is expected to decline in the nearest future.
Stochastic % K line has crossed the % D line and is approaching the oversold zone which indicates a downward trend.
The nearest resistance levels: 1.1083, 1.1210, 1.1277.
The nearest support levels: 1.0969, 1.0920.

Trading tips

Open long positions when the price reaches 1.1085 with the target at 1.1130 and stop-loss at 1.1055.
Open short positions when the price reaches 1.0965 with the target at 1.0925 and stop-loss at 1.0985.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: safe-haven currency Yen

Current trend

Last week, investors were acquiring the Yen as the safe-haven asset amid unresolved Greek problem in the eurozone and the Chinese stock market fall. However, this week as the Chinese stock markets recovered and as there seems to be a progress with the Greek issue, the USD/JPY pair grew.
Fundamental factors, such as planned tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed and the opposite extra soft monetary policy by the Bank of Japan support the pair. Any local strengthening in the pair should be considered as an opportunity to open long positions.
Important news for today include Jobless Claims data from the US, due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3), Fed’s Yellen testifies, NAHB Housing Market index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, due at 5 pm (GMT +3).

Support and resistance

The USD/JPY pair reached the support level at 120.50 and returned to the previous month opening at 124.00 after.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for the further growth towards 125.80 (May high) and, possibly 135.00 (2002 high).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts give buy signals.
Support levels: 120.70, 121.60, 122.35, 122.80, 123.15, 123.50.
Resistance levels: 124.10, 124.50, 125.00.

Trading tips

Open long positions from the current levels and from 122.80, 123.15, 123.50 with targets at 124.10, 124.50, 125.00, 125.50 and stop-loss at 122.50.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 122.35 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 122.00, 121.60, 120.70.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: tendency of USD strengthening

Current trend

Until the Fed is going to keep up with its intentions regarding interest rates increase towards end of this year, the pair USD/CHF continues growing. The pair’s movement is affected by the NB of Switzerland interventions to prevent excessive currency strengthening, which is beneficial to the Swiss economy as inflation in the country is falling. Published on Tuesday, Producer and Import Prices index showed a decrease of 0.1% in June and 6.1% decrease against the last year (forecasted 5.8% decrease). The pair is also supported by the negative interest rates in Switzerland.
Important news for today are due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3) and include Consumer Price index for June and Building Permits for May in the US, and Consumer Price index for June in Canada.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the strong resistance level of 0.9550, which is also serve as the upper border of the narrow trading channel 0.9550-0.9250. The wider channel remains within 0.9720 and 0.9120.
If rather negative news come out today, the pair may fall below 0.9550. Its short-term targets then become 0.9520, 0.9500 and 0.9430 (ЕМА200 and ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Indicators signal a short-term correction to the general upward trend. OsMA is falling and stands near the zero line. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone. On the daily chart, however, indicators are in the buy zone.
Support levels: 0.9120, 0.9200, 0.9250, 0.9340, 0.9430.
Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9720.

Trading tips

Open short positons from the levels of 0.9520, 0.9535, 0.9550 with targets at 0.9500, 0.9430, 0.9340, 0.9245 and stop-loss at 0.9590.
When the price reaches 0.9250-0.9120 range, open long positions (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9430, 0.9550, 0.9720, 1.0000, 1.0100.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9100 with targets at 0.9020, 0.8900, 08720.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The main news last week was the decision by Greece’s creditors to carry on with the financial help to the country in return for unpopular reforms implementation. The decision removes the last weeks’ uncertainty in Europe and is going to support to the Euro.
On Friday, positive macroeconomic statistics came out in the US. In particular, the Consumer Price index grew by 0.3% for June. The Consumer Price index excluding Food and Energy in June grew by 0.2%, and by 1.8% against the last year. Furthermore, Building Permits came out at 1.343 million, which is well above forecasted 1.104 million permits. The news supported the USD and it substantially grew against the Euro.
This week, the pair opened at 1.0830, only two points above its Friday close. Low volatility is expected to continue throughout the day, as there are no important publications today.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving towards the lower border of Bollinger Bands, which are facing down and confirming downward trend.
MACD histogram remains in the negative zone just below its signal line, which shows that the downtrend continues but it can reverse in the near future.
Resistance levels: 1.1083, 1.1210.
The nearest support level is at 1.0820.

Trading tips

Open long positions from the level of 1.1085 with the target at 1.1130 and stop-loss at 1.1055.
Short positions can be opened from 1.0815 with the target at 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0835.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general review

Current trend

Brent crude oil is trading near the important support level at 56.25 (0/8 Murray), the breakdown of which would allow the price to fall to 55.20.
According to Moody’s, after sanctions are lifted from Iran, the country can increase its oil output by 1 million barrels a day, which would lead to a fall in prices.
Another factor preventing oil prices from rising is the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil reserves, which in May rose to 300 million barrels. The increase in oil reserve can be a direct result of weak demand on the market.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 57.03 (1/8 Murray).
Support level: 56.25 (0/8 Murray).

Trading tips

Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 56.25 with the target at 55.47 and stop-loss at 56.45.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD fell and reached 1.5550 but later reversed the course and closed the day at 1.5612.
Economic calendar does not have any important news today. The only publications that may perhaps affect the pair’s movement is the CB Leading Indicators in the US, due at 5 pm (GMT +3). Forecasts predict a slight fall in the USD.

Support and resistance

At present, the pair is moving from the middle MA to top MA of Bollinger Bands. Due to the absence of important news in economic calendar, the upward trend is likely to continue.
Resistance levels: 1.5636 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly and 4-hour charts), 1.5647 (local high).
Support levels: 1.5514 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart), 1.5592 (bottom MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart).


Trading tips

Open long positions above the level of 1.5625 with targets at 1.5636, 1.5647.
Short positions can be opened after the breakthrough of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands below the level of 1.5605 with the target at 1.5592.

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: influence of Chinese economy slowdown

Current trend

The pair NZD/USD was strengthening yesterday despite an earlier interest rate cut by 25 basis points by the RB of New Zealand. However, today the pair fell from yesterday highs of 0.6695 after the publication of Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China that showed a decrease in index to its 15 months low thus representing a slowdown of the economy.
Amid falling dairy products prices, the economy of New Zealand is suffering losses and the NZD is set to decline in the medium-term. As the USD is strengthening, the NZD/USD pair is going to continue its downward trend started July last year.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading near its 5 years lows and falling towards the support levels at 0.6435 (61.8% Fibonacci), 0.6000 (2006 lows). OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart remain near the zero line. On the 4-hour, weekly and monthly charts, they signal sales.
Any local strengthening in the pair should be considered as an opportunity to open short positions.
Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6400.
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6890.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.6690, 0.6625, 0.6600 with targets at 0.6550, 0.6500, 0.6450, 0.6435, 0.6400 and stop-loss at 0.6810.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.6890 with targets at 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The GBP ended last week with the fall to the level seen two week ago. The British currency was affected by UK Retail Sales (-0.2% from 0.3% in last month) and US Initial Jobless Claims statistics (255 K from 281 K earlier). These US positive data confirmed the US interest rates hike which was officially announced last week.
On the contrary, UK budget deficit statistics for last month support the British currency. Due to high tax revenues from individual income and corporate profits the figure was 1.12 billion, which is almost 11 times less year-on-year.

Support and resistance

Currently the pair is trading at the upper border of the downward channel; MA with 100 period is an additional resistance level.
At 3:30 p.m. (GMT +2) Durable Goods Orders statistics are released. Negative data may push the price down significantly.
Support level: 1.5462 (last week low).
Resistance level: 1.5540 (MA with 100 period and the border of the channel).

Trading tips

Open short positions from 1.5529 with the target at 1.5462 and stop-loss at 1.5555 (15 points above the resistance level).

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: pair shows correction

Current trend

At the beginning of this week, the USD/JPY pair showed some downward movement that was determined by the poor statistical data on New Home Sales that came out in the US on Friday.
However, yesterday a new release on Durable Goods Orders from the US showed strong data. The figure grew by 3.4% against -2.1% for the previous month and came out better than expectations.
On Wednesday, Retail Sales stats are published in Japan. Then on Thursday, Industrial Production data is due, and on Friday, the Consumer Price Index is out.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart presents a mixed picture. The middle MA continues an upward movement while trading range is narrowing. The last sell signal is not viable anymore.
MACD maintains a downward trend and suggests keeping existing short positions in the short-term.
Stochastic remains near the oversold zone and is trying to turn up. The indicator signals a possibility of opening long positions near the level of 124.50.
Resistance levels: 123.56 (22 July low), 124.00 (psychologically important level), 124.17 (23 July high), 124.47 (21 July high).
Support levels: 123.00 (27 July low), 122.60, 122.00 (30 June low), 121.57, 121.00, 120.41 (8 July low).

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of the level of 124.00 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 124.60, 125.00 and stop-loss at 123.00.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 123.00 with the target at 122.00 and stop-loss at 123.56.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: interest rate decision is ahead

Current trend

Today at 9:00 p.m. (GMT +3) Fed announces its decision on US interest rate. Market participants are waiting on timing of interest rate increase. In August, RBA, on the contrary, is likely to further lower Australian interest rate from the current level of 2%.
This week Export and Import Price indexes as well as Producer Price Index are released in Australia. But the pair dynamics is more likely to be determined by Fed interest rate decision as well as by US GDP statistics and GDP Price Index, due at 3:30 p.m. (GMT +3) on Thursday.

Support and resistance

The further decline to 2006 lows (0.7100-0.7000) is possible. However, the pair may bounce off 0.7200 and consolidate there, as some experts consider this level to be “the fair price” for the pair.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart indicate the further decline; on the daily chart they are turning to long positions. The correction is possible, but it is unlikely to overcome 0.7380-0.7450 (4-hour chart).
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7260.
Resistance levels: 0.7350, 0.7380, 0.7450, 0.7500.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the current price and from the levels 0.7350, 0.7380, 0.7450 with targets at 0.7250, 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7520. The pair may further decline to 2006 lows 0.7100-0.7000.
If the price consolidates above 0.7500 and indicators on the daily chart give appropriate signals, open long positions.