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7 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:36 pm
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ] 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


07 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Geez, we are going into today with a whole lot of high impact news. The most anticipate new for tonight that traders will be watching very closely would be the ECB rate decision. The question is would the ECB step in to actually spoil the party that put a halt on the Equity market euphoria of late and base on the last few weeks of data coming out of Europe that showed the economy in Europe is deteriorating and so a slash of interest rate by the ECB should not come as a surprise.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada leaves rate on hold and what dragged the CAD down was the Statement that state that there are rooms for further easing and things deteriorated any further.

Anyway, as said in previous update we are now witnessing the euphoria of the market as it keeps on pushing higher on a non considerable volumes and for which we are very sceptical about this equity hype. If we take a hard good look at the facts we will see that market over the last 4 years or so has been driven by the FED and Central Banks around the world as they keep on printing money and feed hungry investors while the actual state of the economy, such as employment isn’t at all healthy or anywhere to be consider healthy.

Back in early January, in one of our update, we did gave a bold call and suggested that this rally in the market will soon be dealt with a nasty blow over the next 4 to 6 months. Yes, back in January we did stated that we do expect a Correction in the Stock Market over the next 4 to 6 months and come along the risk currencies as well. Oh well, our timeline is drawing near and yes we still do hold on to that view and this could happen in any day now, could it be this month? Or sometimes in early April just to mark the 12 years anniversary of the Tech Crash? Just have to wait and see.

Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves
04:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rates
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits; Trade Balance
08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference
09:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance; Unemployment Claims
04:30 pm (NY) USD – Bank Stress Test
06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP - still range bound as base on H4, we will probably see decent movement on this pair tonight after the ECB rate decision.

GBPNZD – as explain yesterday this pair is currently in a subwave5 of wave2 and if it has put on the low for this subwave5 completed @ 1.8065 then we would expect a wave3 up and creating a short term trend change. Note: This pair could go lower to retest previous low of 1.7970. We anticipated this pair is in the process of forming the base and the retrace to the upside can be very rewarding with this pair and so we only getting into this pair with small lot size.

AUDNZD – Yesterday our pending order triggered, from the chart below we can see that the pair has put in a bottom forming short term higher highs and higher lows then put on a pullback forming Flag pattern. We entered after it formed a minor support of 1.2310 by creating a triple tweezers and MACD creating a hidden bullish divergence. At time of writing the prices has now just break out of the Flag and resume the short term uptrend. If the wave count is valid then we could see a Wave3 projection which usually at least equal the length of Wave1. Chart below.

AUDNZD – H4


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photomyfxpedia-myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-07-Mar-2013-AUDNZD-H4.jpg"]Image[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

8 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:25 pm
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ] 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


08 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

From yesterday news released we have the BOE and the ECB both decided to keep rate on hold. Prior to the BOE new the Pound was well and truly under the downward pressure but quickly regained its ground once traders learned that rate on hold as well as no change within their current QE program. While the Euro came alive kicking after comments from the ECB President, Draghi, that said the Euro zone is expecting a slow recovery in the later ½ of 2013 but urged all countries within the zone to be on track with their reforms.

The rally in the Euro was also helped by the Spain bond auction which went much better than expect with took out the investor fear regarding the country debt burden. The thing that really bugger our minds is the disconnections between markets and the actual health of the economy. From yesterday rally we had the market ignoring the fact that German came out with news of “unexpectedly decline in Factory Orders” and mind you most of the news came out of Germany over the last month or two spell troubles yet, all these fundamental healthy of the economy being shrugged off and market keep pushing higher, although of no significant committed buyers in the market (no volumes) as we seen most of the Index keeps pushing higher and higher. Let us tell you what? These sort of behaviours in the market spells Perfect Storm is drawing near. It probably will take a bad data coming out of the US or Euro will signal a panic selling and we mean a good 3 days to a week of heavy selling (correction), not just a pullback like the one we just have at beginning of the week. Since we do not know when and where it will take place the only thing we can do is to position ourselves, you just have to be in it to win it, and since the market sometimes can be very irrational we therefore only playing with small lots and patiently waiting for the fundamentals to root this market.

Today we have the Non-Farm payroll coming out of the US and as we seen of late most of data coming of the US showing signs that the country is well and truly on the path of recovery and so many will expect improve number of employments. If we are going to see a number of more than 162,000 employment added to the work force we probably will see another rally in the risk assets.

Impact News today:

03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) CNY - CPI

Technical Analysis:

We are still holding our 3 pairs, although they are in negative but still below our risk parameter. We have been in this situation many times before and each time we always came out with record pips so, just be patient, as long as we are within our risk parameter we will get our chance. The only put off that we do not like is the swap on GBPNZD but well, just part of trading, we just can’t have everything the way we like it hey.

AUDNZD – This pair has now breakout of the Flag pattern and looks as though it’s on its way to form Wave3. Once it reaches 100 pips we will exit ½ and bring to breakeven the others with TP of 1.2725.

EURGBP – We are looking to add position on this pair with our pending order. Chart below.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-08Mar2013-EURGBP-H4.jpg"]Image[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:54 am
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ] 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Lately we have seen the Equities markets around the world is going nuts, all the indexes seems to be on drug and keep shooting higher. The only index that is lagging as compare to other country is from China, the MIA. Maybe they know something and not going along with the herds. Are they missing band wagon or their investors are more calm and prudent? We tend to think it’s the later. From our perspective we do not have the confident in this unsubstantiated rally either but yes we do think in later part of the year we probably will get a meaningful bull market but not after a decent correction.

Looking at the indexes, noticeably is the S&P, we are currently have prices at multi-weeks high and overbought while on Daily we have Continuous Negative Divergence and overbought and we therefore expect a decent pullback will happens shortly, it could start this very week and as many participants in the market use to say “ Buy in December and Sell in April/May”.

Over the weekend Politicians from Germany came out saying that policy makers has to be careful of softer Euro as it could push the inflation out of proportion and another is saying that the main and greatest threat to the Euro is still Greece and even suggest Greece to exit of the Euro that would be the best case scenario for the Euro. Wow, that’s a very daring, gutful suggestion. Firstly, we don’t think the Greece mind of being shown the exit door and unless they are being push out of the Euro they won’t voluntarily leave the Euro. They will stay in the zone for as long as they can and put their hand out for more Bailout Funds while “Druggie” of the ECB will come out and says “ ECB will do all it can...”. If you were Greece would you do the same? Stick to the zone for as long as you can and get feed until you cannot be fed any further, why not?

Now, what would happen if Greece being shovel out of the Euro Zone? Is it the best case scenario for the Euro as many think it is? Maybe, the Euro Group were reluctant to kick Greece out of the Group because they do not want to set the precedent as the market would go into spin and the next question on the lips of investors would be, who’s next? Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland...etc? Too much headache, let’s leave it alone.
Last Friday, we had an excellent Non-Farm Payroll number from the US and that’s send the USD soaring against others currencies, the only currency that buck the trend was CAD which also boast a good number of employments for the month. Over the last 2 months or so we have witness the much better improvement of the state of economy from North America and base on that market sentiments we will look to buy into the USD on pullback.


Impact News today:

None


Technical Analysis:

There are no impact news today and not until Wednesday do we have meaningful news coming through FX market, so, expect a range bound trading over the next couple days.

EURGBP and GBPNZD as mentioned last Friday, this 2 pairs are building the top and bottom, They are playing around the tops and bottoms a little bit before reversing trends we just have to be patience.

AUDNZD – the pair behave just exactly according to our analysis last Friday. We exited ½ positions and trail stop just below the Resistance turn Support, about 27 pips above our entry. Our next target will be @ 1.2580 then 1.2720. Chart below

AUDNZD – H4


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-11Mar2013-AUDNZD-H4.jpg"]Image[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Wed Mar 13, 2013 5:30 am
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 02Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ] 243 | 2
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 195 | 2
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7078.0 | +183.5


12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


The Equity market around the world must be on steroid and keep pushing higher but mind you it’s not because we have buyers eager to getting into the market at least volumes doesn’t say so. It’s the lack of Sellers in the market that created help creating the bullish scenario with low volumes. We suspect sellers are lurking behind the scene patiently waiting for the opportunity to pounce on this sucker rally and when it happens we will see many of the currency pairs are also having correction as well

Impact News today:


05:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturer Production


Technical Analysis:


EURGBP and GBPNZD as stated yesterday, these two pairs are in the process of forming tops and bottoms and can be very rewarding. EURGBP we are looking for correction toward 0.8250 and for GBPNZD we are looking for 1.9000. So, be patience.

AUZNZD – yesterday during the late NY session we had a pullback on this pair and came real close to our trailing stop. It then bounce back to the up which confirmed of retest of the earlier breakout and watch for price action at the downtrend line resistance, around 1.2520 if it pushes up to that level, we might consider exiting the remaining lots as price at that level would meet heavy resistance plus we are having Negative Divergence on H4 also. Chart below.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-12Mar2013-AUDNZD-H4.jpg"]Image[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

13 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 12:33 am
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 02Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


13 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


There wasn’t much to add as market as most of the major currencies are in range bound due to lacks of fundamental news. The only piece of news was from the GBP and as we can see the market had factor in of the disappoint data as prices was under downward pressure but as soon as news came the initial reaction was down but quickly change direction and regain most of the losing ground during the day.

Later tonight (NY time), early Thursday morning Sydney time we will have the Official Cash Rate decision from NZD. As many expect the cash rate to remain unchanged and so it all comes to what is going to be said by Governor Wheeler. Is he going to talk down the NZD or is he going to give a hawkish view of the New Zealand economy.

In our personal view, he probably will state a strong New Zealand economy but at the same will warn of the possible intervention from the RBNZ to keep the NZD in check by preventing of deterioration in the export industry. The reaction to this on the pair that we currently hold, GBPNZD: The initial reaction would be down, but the downside from here is limited and then a strong retracement to the upside for this pair.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) USD - Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales
04:00 pm (NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate; RBNZ Press Conference; Rate Statement
08:05 pm (NY) NZD – RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks
08:30 pm (NY) Employment Change; Unemployment Rate.


Technical Analysis:

EURGBP and GBPNZD still playing out, we will be patience with these 2 pairs, it’s quite frustrating to hold GBPNZD due to terrible swap but it’s just part of the game. Regarding GBPNZD, due to high impact news later today we will watch carefully if it push for one more leg down as we anticipate this could be the last leg down before momentum shift to the upside or at least a strong retracement. That said, as the news will be release during the most illiquid trade hour it could be detrimental, it’s the perfect time for Market Makers doing Stop Runs on their traders so do not surprise if we decided to move our Stops to avoid being the victim of shark.

We exited AUDNZD today base on trailing on the 30 mins charts for 158 pips. We will look into this pair again over the next day or two for possible short as the pair has now formed Continuous Negative Divergence on H4 and had 2 attempts at the breakout of the downtrend line but fail both times on Daily chart. We will look for candle pattern, a juicy red candle form on the daily will trigger the short with target of recent low. Chart Below.


AUDNZD – Daily


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-13Mar2013-AUDNZD-Daily.jpg.jpg"]Image[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:34 pm
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 02Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Just as we said from yesterday updated: It’s not the rate decision from the RBNZ that move the market but what is being said by the Governor Wheeler that’s move the market. What Governor Wheeler said was exactly what we think as being prudent; he talked down the NZD and clearly stated that the NZD is OVERVALUE by 10 to 15% and that was enough for the drop in the NZD and that was exactly our view all along over the last 2 weeks or so. We have stated that the NZD is way overvalue that has been pump up with no fundamental behind it and ultimately the fundamental will come and root it and today we are starting to see the first sign of NZD taking shape in correction.

Beside the correction in some of the overheated currencies with no back up fundamentals we will shortly see a good correction in the equities market as well. We have been saying this for a while now, at least over the last 4 weeks and yesterday Art Cashin from CNBC also put out a good cautious tone of this market rally. You can watch Art Cashin here http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154059&play=1 What intriguing from that Video was the fact that we had 9 straight days run to the upside and this has not happen over the last 16 years. In 1987, we have a straight 13 days up and then we know exactly what happened in 1987 hey.....the 2nd biggest correction since 1930. If history is anything to go by then let have some food for thought. Back in 1930 or should I said late 1929, October, we had the biggest market crashed that follow depression worldwide and market crawled its way back up just to see another good deep correction in 1936/37 which was 6/7 years apart. Since 2007 se have the SUPRIME Mortgage that triggered the triggered the financial meltdown which was known as GFC that prolonged until end of 2009. Now, we are in 2013 which is about 6/7 years from the start of the GFC. So what do you reckon?

Impact News today:


04:30 am (NY) CHF – Libor Rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
08:30 am (NY) USD – PPI; Unemployment Claims.


Technical Analysis:

Ok, at the moment and from yesterday prices action it looks like we are about to see the correction in some of the overheated currency and from the pairs we hold that base on yesterday candle formation looks promising.

Over the last few weeks some of our newly joined members must have been agitated and wondering, questioning of our trades. What you need to understand in this sort of trading business is knowing your risk and having a proper Risk Management in place. To us, trading and taking positions is just part of the game but the ultimate driver of this game is to have risk under control and that was exactly what we did. If you go back to many previous post you will see that have many time stated about the condition of certain pairs and keep reminding our members of just taking small positions with wider stop and trade accordingly to their risk profile. You see, when we spot something that do not line up, fundamentally and technically, and as the pair entered in our Buy/Sell zone we will start to attack but because of the usual market irrational behaviour, we always give a leeway by wider stop and when the cycle turn that is when reality of fundamental awaken the traders then we will be in for a good profit. Yes, we know there are room to improve in our Entries execution but then, who can tell when the turn will take place? And if we are reluctant to take the trade and keep waiting so that we can get in at the best possible prices. Let us tell you this....we aren’t god, we aren’t fortune teller and we definitely have no magic mirror to tell when and where prices will take shape and if just sit idling on the sideline waiting for better prices to enter we, most of the time will miss the trades. We have been in this financial market long enough to realise that: “Only, Sound Risk Management is The Road to Prosperity”. Enough Said.

AUDCAD – Our pending triggered early in today Asian session due to unexpected rise in employment rate release by the Australian. A jump of 71500 as compare to 9500 forecast, yet, we do questioned of the actual employment since we have a huge jump in employment would that then equate to a good drop in Unemployment Rate also? But no, the unemployment rate came out at 5.4% while economist forecast of 5.5% which basically is in line with expectation. The only thing we can explain this is just the way they calculate the number of employment, such that they registered all people that work fulltime, part-time, casuals and yet, for part-time and especially Casuals they somehow also needs some sort of assistance from the department of Welfare to cover their daily living and that will also count as unemployed. Truly, we have no idea how did they come up with the numbers and yet the rate of Unemployment doesn’t seem to budge. Anyway, we are now in the trade, let see chart below.

AUDCAD – Daily

[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-14-Mar-2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg"]
Image[/url]

AUDCAD - H4

[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-14-Mar-2013-AUDCAD-H4.jpg"]Image
[/url]



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:54 pm
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 02Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

There isn’t much impact news today beside the US and a conclusive 2 days EU summit. Many traders will look forward to what will coming out from the EU summit and as far as the fundamental of the European economy we all know that so far nothing has been fix, as a matter of fact it is getting worse base on many economic data release over the last few weeks.

In yesterday update, we mentioned about 1936, guess what? Later in the night during US we found an article by Tyler Durben from Zerohedge.com who put up a very interesting view with many similarities of what’s happing now as compare to 1936. Glad to have other sharing same view. You can read it here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/1936-redux-its-really-never-different-time

Another piece from yesterday that we mention was the fact that we had a huge jump in employment in Aust with an unchanged in the rate of Jobless Claims have us puzzle. Guess what, from many of the Australian leading economics today also came out questioning the authorities about that as well, just really, how they came up with that number, a number that was the best jobs number ever in the last 12.5 years. So, don’t be surprised to see the authority came out with an “apology” statement, just like the one we had from the US 3 months ago.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) USD – Core CPI
09:55 am (NY) USD – Prelim Consumer Sentiment.


Technical Analysis:

We did mention in the last 3 updates or so that EURGBP and GBPNZD are both in the process of forming top and bottom and with yesterday prices action it would technically indicate that the start of correction for this 2 pairs are taking shape.

GBPNZD – from chart below we see that the pair has now breakout of the downtrend channel and by using Channel Projection, Price would then take us to at least around 0.8650 – 0.8750 area. Which then coincide with 38% fib retracement and Resistance level. Prices target is shaded in Eclipse.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photomyfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-EURGBP-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]


EURGBP – Last week we had a 1 day Strong Bearish Engulfing candle, prices then retraced and retested the high 3 days ago and fail. We then have 2 consecutive down days with Negative Divergence. Yesterday Prices also broke below the low of the ascending wedge. Using Wedge target projection will take us to about 0.8350/0.8400 as first resistance once it close below 0.8600. Our 2nd target is the Long term uptrend line. Chart Below.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-GBPNZD-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]


AUDCAD – See chart below


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg"]
Image[/url]


The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:28 am
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 03Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]245 | 4
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3


18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Wow, that was a big gaps with the Euro pairs at the start of the week and could this be the catalyst that is require to cool down the overheated market. As of last Friday we already have a 10 straight days without any pullback from the Equities market and as of now we have an indication from the future market on the S&P which shown a gap down and so we would expect the Dow to be in the Red tonight. Now what cause this gap in the Euro?

Over the weekend, the Euro Group decided to gave Cyprus 10 billion Euro Bail Out money with a set of harsh condition to the Cyprus banks. After reading through the deal for the Bailout we gobsmack for the people of Cyprus or for any investors having their money deposited in the Cyprus banks. The deal is that depositors will be taxed by up to 9.9% for accounts over 100,000 Euro and for account that is less than 100,000 will be taxed at 6.75%. This is to help pay for the Bailout and what’s more? If you are Cypriots (locals) you now cannot empty for account on any particular day as the daily limit only allow you to withdraw 400 Euro. Ouch, That’s real hurt.

On the initial reaction for any traders first reaction that comes to mind would think this deal would be Euro positive since the ECB just legally rob the Cypriots to the core and so would expect Euro to go north as we seen price action from last Friday half way through NY open. Well, traders that pre-empt such measure are now stand to lose with such a gap down. Now let us think about this for a minute, what the ECB has done is just unfair and potentially scare all investors around the world in thinking twice about depositing funds into any of the European Banks or and banks within the Europe and worst if people of trouble countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy would now questions when will the ECB going to apply such measure to their banks? This uncertainty and fears hanging in the air will not do any good for the Euro as money will find its way out of Europe to find refuge and ultimately could eventually the breakup of the Euro.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting.


Technical Analysis:


With no impact news from the Europe and US today we do not expect prices swings as much but with the uncertainty and the discontent of the Cyprus Bailout, the market, traders and investors alike will probably let the policy makers hear their voice loud and clear.

As from our last Thursday update, we are expecting to EURGBP to 0.8350 – 0.8400 or even 0.8250 and retest the long term uptrend line and GBPNZD – we expect this pair to retrace up toward 1.8650 – 1.8750 or higher and if the Equity market correction to start this particular pair could potentially go straight to 1.9350. If you think we are over optimistic then wait till you see the day that the Dow has 2 days drop of at least 200 points or when the Euro crisis hit up again then you will see how this pair behave.

AUDCAD – This pair last Friday retested the uptrend line, bottom of the wedge and unable to breakdown , currently still ranging we still expect it to eventually breakdown from the wedge and move lower.

For the 3 pairs that we hold above, our view and target still hold true and we reassess the situation after today or when prices get closer to our target. This morning we only exit 1 position of EURGBP upon gaps and used H1 to close that position as prices from initial gap trade above the first H1 candle as that could potentially retrace to close the gap. After exited we put in another pending Sell limit if price manage to close the gap.

Please refer to last Friday charts as nothing much change from our view.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photomyfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-EURGBP-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-GBPNZD-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg"]
Image[/url]


The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

20 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:11 pm
by Amelia
Project Summary :


Duration: 08 Months , 03Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: ]245 | 4
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3


20 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Cyprus, the tiny island over the past few days took centre stage in the world financial market and we are sure all traders has been follow the news with great interest as what will be unfold? The uncertainty and news, rumours....whatever have you, are fascinating from all leading media outlets, one minute we have rumours of Finance Minister forwarded his Resignation just to see a few hours later the Minister came out asking – where was that come from?

Anyway, let us dissect the issue according to our personal understanding of the issue.

First of all, it was a nasty surprise over the weekend for many market participants, including us all, in our view it was a heavy handed deal and unfair to the Cypriots. Maybe, the ECB and the IMF have run out of ideas on how to bandage the leaking wounds within the Euro Zone, OR, maybe this was a way for the Germans to get back at the Russians as many of the market watchers saying the sort of deals has the Germans written all over it and the Germans want to get back at the Russians for shutting of their Gas supply some years back by taxing the over-sea depositors in Cyprus banks and as according to the press, Cyprus is the financial hub for money laundering and they estimated that funds from depositors from Russia amount from somewhere between 20 to 35 billion Euro. Wow, no wonder, Russian strong man, Vladimir Putin is spruiking about the deal, calling it “unfair, unprofessional...”.

Secondly, Banks in Cyprus have calling in for sick leave and will not resume for business until tomorrow, Thursday, we would not be surprise to see if they calling in for Long Service Leave and stay shut for weeks until they can find a solution to calm the market to avoid Banks raid by depositors. Since Monday, every account is only able to withdraw with a daily limit of 400 Euros and we suspect, many of the automatic teller machines has now running on empty and we won’t surprise to see lining up to cash out once Banks reopen for business regardless of whatever deals they strike.

Thirdly, Cyprus is now in a very difficult, catch 22 situation such that is they accept the deal and pass the bill through parliament then many, many people will not be very happy and could potentially lead to social unrest and this could be contagious to other countries within the Euro Zone as people from other financial trouble like Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal will pose a question as to when will they going to cope such horrible deal?. But, by not accepting the deal they could risk the Bankruptcy and eventually being forced out of the Euro. Although, it’s only a tiny nation within the Euro Groups but it still can send the market into a tail spin.

Anyway, this can of worm has open and just only a scratch on the surface so do not expect it will die down any sooner and the Euro will get messier over the coming months and then maybe “Druggie” the Saviour will come out with the recent famous rhetoric: “ ...do whatever it take to save the Euro”. Until then, we can’t see any reason to be bullish on the Euro, not until it get down to 1.1800 to 1.2100.


Impact News today:

05:30 am (NY) GBP – Claimant Count Change; MPC Meeting minutes
08:30 am (NY) GBP – Annual Budget Release
02:00 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Economic Projections; FOMC Statement
02:30 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Press Conference
05:45 pm (NY) NZD – GDP
09:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI.

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP – we are still looking for at least another 180 pips drop to our TP2 and retest the major uptrend line on Daily chart. Prices has now broke down from the short term uptrend line as well as broke down from the range. Currently, fundamentally and technically this pair has all the bearish signs written all over it, so we stick to it until our prices target is reach or until the major uptrend line being retested.

[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-20-Mar-2013-EURGBP-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]

GBPNZD – After forming a double bottom and broke out of the downtrend channel on Daily chart the pair has been consolidating sideway over the last 4 trading days. A clear break and close above 1.8430 will signal an advance toward to projected target @1.8750 there about and if we use double bottom projected target would take us to 1.8850.

[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-20-Mar-2013-GBPNZD-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]

We also have order on AUD pairs. We will go into more details on this 2 pairs tomorrow.


The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

21 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 4:36 am
by Amelia
21 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:[/U][/B]

After the Parliament ballot on Bailout deal was overwhelmingly rejected on taxing the depositors and so the negotiation between the Cyprus officials and the ECB continues. Traders and investors alike are now pinning hope on the ECB to come up on better solution to save Cyprus. The ECB, European Union and the IMF (aka Troika) is currently standing firm on their ground such that Cyprus will not get the Bailout Funds (10 billion Euros) it needs unless Cyprus can raise up to 5.8 billion Euros and complies with the original deal and that has the market rumour on Russian to be Cyprus Saviour by acquiring its trouble banks.

Funnily from yesterday update we mentioned of possible banking shutdown for some extended time instead of reopen for business on Thursday as announced last Monday and late yesterday during NY session we have the Cyprus official announced that banks will take on the extended Vacation and will not open for business until Tuesday next week. Again, do not hold your breath as this could extend further, a Long Service Leave this time, if there’s no reasonable deal eventuated.

Amazing isn’t it? In this day and age, a country that is being considered as a tax haven with billions of dollars from over-sea depositing into their banks and now financially cripple with the entire banking sector shut down for “Vacation” and we suspect that by this time probably all of their Automatic Teller Machines are now running empty. Certainly, account holders and the people of Cyprus, the Mums and Dads must now feel like sitting on fire. So, what will happen when they come back from vacation and reopen for business? We don’t think whatever the Government officials say, there will be a run on banks if not riots. Think about it. We have people being starve from their funds for more than a week to cover their daily needs so they will have to rush to banks for their dough to pay for goods, foods...etc. and there are people that no longer trust banks will try every mean, in every way close their accounts. We have no idea if you would do that but we know for sure from the team of myfxpedia would not hesitate to be the first in line to empty our account at first opportunity.



Impact News today:

04:00 am (NY) EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI
04:30 am (NY) EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
05:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
10:00 am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical Analysis:

EAs mention above, traders and investors alike are still pinning hope on the Cyprus issue and we saw the Equities market were taking a breather yesterday but the risk currencies like Euro, Pound and Aussie do not share that view and end the day rather mute.

Anyway, as mentioned yesterday we will do the technical analysis on the orders we had yesterday: AUDUSD and AUDCAD. We have the aggressive entry order on AUDUSD triggered yesterday so let see what’s on the chart.

AUDUSD – Daily, we can see that the pair has manage to retrace to the upside and found strong Resistance at 61.8% Fib level. Momentum is overbought. We will go to H4 for our Entry order.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-21Mar2013-AUDUSD-Daily.jpg"]Image[/url]


AUDUSD – H4, here we can see prices is trading within symmetrical triangle between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels. We had have continuous bearish Divergence, Prices trading at Strong Resistances, the Daily mother trend is down and so we had one Pending limit sell order as aggressive entry at Resistances Level and a Pending Sell Stop order which is clearly below the minor support (1.0340) as well as below the 50% fib level.


[url="https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxpedia/data/photo/myfxpedia-myfxpedia-daily-review-21Mar2013-AUDUSD-H4.jpg"]Image[/url]