Candle Patterns && Statistics?

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Candle Patterns && Statistics?

Postby newyear498 » Sun Nov 14, 2010 12:33 pm

does anyone have statistics of candle patterns and probabilities?

also your own back testing overviews and data can be accepted.

What am I asking for???

things like what are the probabilities of a reversal after a pin bar?

what are the probabilities that a candle will continue upward after two bullish candles?

and things like that.. really any statistic you have would be welcome.. I haven't found any good studies online yet.


Thanks!
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Re: Candle Patterns && Statistics?

Postby Edward Revy » Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:49 pm

The statistics of candle patterns and probabilities was done by Thomas N. Bulkowski who published the book called: "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts".
It includes around 105 chart patterns.

On author's website you'll be able to find descriptions of those patterns. For example, description of the shooting star, quote:

"...Theoretical performance: Bearish reversal
Tested performance: Bullish continuation 61% of the time
Frequency rank: 51
Overall performance rank: 52
Best percentage meeting price target: 52% (bull market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: -4.93% (bear market, down breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 31 (bear market, down breakout)..."
Link: http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar2.html

All patterns:
http://thepatternsite.com/CandlesSingle.html
http://thepatternsite.com/Candles2.html
http://thepatternsite.com/Candles3.html
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Re: Candle Patterns && Statistics?

Postby newyear498 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:49 pm

Edward Revy wrote:The statistics of candle patterns and probabilities was done by Thomas N. Bulkowski who published the book called: "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts".
It includes around 105 chart patterns.

On author's website you'll be able to find descriptions of those patterns. For example, description of the shooting star, quote:

"...Theoretical performance: Bearish reversal
Tested performance: Bullish continuation 61% of the time
Frequency rank: 51
Overall performance rank: 52
Best percentage meeting price target: 52% (bull market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: -4.93% (bear market, down breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 31 (bear market, down breakout)..."
Link: http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar2.html

All patterns:
http://thepatternsite.com/CandlesSingle.html
http://thepatternsite.com/Candles2.html
http://thepatternsite.com/Candles3.html


Thanks Edward.. very interesting studies.. and they show me many reasons to not trust candle patterns as much as I have been lol...

Seems like very low probabilities for the most part.. but a small advantage always help!
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Re: Candle Patterns && Statistics?

Postby NewStarS » Tue Dec 07, 2010 12:36 am

Candle sticks are good.But only in higher time frame.
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Re: Candle Patterns && Statistics?

Postby ForexLion » Sat Dec 25, 2010 12:54 pm

It is always better to combine candlestick lines with other confirmation tools such as trendlines, moving averages, etc. They are not usually effective when used only on their own.
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